The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · Exponential technology series
Technologies convergentes
Risques qui apparaissent lorsque des technologies de pointe se combinent (IA et biotechnologie, autonomie et cyber, calcul et énergie) et dépassent une gouvernance pensée pour une seule technologie.
Page GRX-SER-XT-20Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-20 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indices de domaine
4
Health security risk · Governance weakness · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.
Indicateurs
102
4 index domains
Hazard families
20
Frontier and exponential technology · Systemic and compound events.
Méthodes
77
Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.
4
indices de domaine
102
indicators in scope
2
domaines d'aléas
4
client groups
01Périmètre
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which technology combinations create new hazard classes?
- Where does convergence outrun governance?
- What early signals should be watched?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Converging technologies index is built
Graph8 nodes
Graphe
01Indices de domaine
02Series index
03Readings
100%
Liste
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Risque de sécurité sanitaireDomain index · IDX · HLTINFORM-style aggregation, on 0 to 10, of epidemic and AMR hazard, disease burden and undernutrition against health-system and IHR capacity, each component oriented by its own polarity.
-
Faiblesse de la gouvernanceDomain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
-
Risque cyberDomain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
Risque de concentration technologiqueDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
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Converging technologies indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-20Risques qui apparaissent lorsque des technologies de pointe se combinent (IA et biotechnologie, autonomie et cyber, calcul et énergie) et dépassent une gouvernance pensée pour une seule technologie.
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Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
03Indices
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Converging technologies index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
| Indice | Valeur | Variation | Variation % | Intervalle à 90 % | Classe · probabilité | Tendance | Plage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Risque de sécurité sanitaireNXS-GRX · HLT |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Faiblesse de la gouvernanceNXS-GRX · GOV |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Risque cyberNXS-GRX · CYB |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Risque de concentration technologiqueNXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Health, Governance and institutions.
04Indicateurs
102 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicateur | Domaine | Sub-domain | Composant | Unité | Niveaux | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score de l'indicateur composite LIC-DSF (publié, référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Dépendance nette aux importations de minerais critiquesIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Préparation économique à l'investissement dans l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Préparation de la gouvernance à l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Jours de chaleur humide dangereuse par anIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501 |
Épisodes d'exposition aux vagues de chaleur par personneIND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
Population exposée à la chaleur extrême, partIND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
Exposition aux PM2.5, moyenne pondérée par la populationIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure |
ENV | Qualité de l'air | hazard | ug/m3 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD |
Population exposée au-delà de la valeur guide de l'OMS pour les PM2.5, partIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share |
ENV | Qualité de l'air | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS |
Exposition saisonnière aux pics d'ozoneIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure |
ENV | Qualité de l'air | hazard | [ppb] |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Population utilisant des services d'eau potable gérés en toute sécuritéIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD |
Population utilisant au moins des services d'eau potable de baseIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS |
Population utilisant des services d'assainissement gérés en toute sécuritéIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD |
Population disposant d'installations de base pour le lavage des mainsIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1 |
Taux de dépendance aux ressources en eau renouvelables extérieuresIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Superficie des bassins transfrontaliers faisant l'objet d'une coopération opérationnelleIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
Taux de mortalité des moins de cinq ansIND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007 |
Taux de mortalité néonataleIND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2 |
Taux de mortalité maternelleIND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026 |
Espérance de vie à la naissanceIND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001 |
Mortalité prématurée due aux principales maladies non transmissiblesIND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070 |
Incidence de la tuberculoseIND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020 |
Incidence du paludismeIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA |
Incidence du VIHIND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS |
Médecins pour 1,000 habitantsIND.HLT.system.physician_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1 |
Infirmiers et sages-femmes pour 1,000 habitantsIND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1 |
Lits d'hôpital pour 1,000 habitantsIND.HLT.system.hospital_beds |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102 |
Indice de couverture des services de la CSUIND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD |
Population confrontée à des dépenses de santé directes catastrophiquesIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
Dépenses directes, part des dépenses courantes de santéIND.HLT.system.oop_share |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011 |
Dépenses courantes de santé, part du PIBIND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS |
Couverture vaccinale DTC3IND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1 |
Couverture vaccinale de la deuxième dose contre la rougeoleIND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1 |
Naissances assistées par du personnel de santé qualifiéIND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2 |
Temps de trajet jusqu'à l'établissement de santé le plus procheIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Score des capacités fondamentales du RSI (SPAR)IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018 |
Capacité de laboratoire du RSI (SPAR C4)IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1 |
Capacité de surveillance du RSI (SPAR C5)IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2 |
Capacité de gestion des urgences sanitaires du RSI (SPAR C7)IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1 |
Capacité de communication sur les risques du RSI (SPAR C10)IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5 |
Fréquence des événements épidémiquesIND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Cas de choléra signalés, pour 100,000 habitantsIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001 |
Infections du sang dues au SARMIND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2 |
Infections du sang dues à E. coli résistant aux céphalosporines de troisième générationIND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2 |
Retard de croissance chez les enfants de moins de cinq ansIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025 |
Émaciation chez les enfants de moins de cinq ansIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026 |
Anémie chez les femmes en âge de procréerIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043 |
Sièges occupés par des femmes au parlement nationalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
Population âgée de 65 ans et plus, part du totalIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
Attaques contre les soins de santéIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Voix et responsabilité (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
Stabilité politique et absence de violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
Efficacité des pouvoirs publics (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
Maîtrise de la corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
Indice de perception de la corruption (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Score de liberté de la presse (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
État de droit (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
Droits de propriété et gouvernance fondée sur des règles (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
Détenus non condamnés, part de la population carcéraleIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
Incidence de la corruption parmi les entreprisesIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
Qualité de la réglementation (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
Note globale CPIA (indice d'allocation des ressources de l'IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA gestion du secteur public et institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA transparence, responsabilité et corruption dans le secteur publicIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
Efficacité de la mobilisation des recettes (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
Écart entre l'exécution budgétaire et le budget approuvéIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
Score global des indicateurs de performance statistiqueIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
Exhaustivité de l'enregistrement des naissancesIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
Années écoulées depuis le dernier recensement de la populationIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
Score de l'environnement des affaires (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Population utilisant principalement des combustibles et technologies de cuisson propresIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking |
ENE | Accès | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
Concentration des fournisseurs de minerais critiques importésIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Personnes utilisant InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
Redondance des routes de connectivité internationaleIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Heures de perturbation d'Internet à l'échelle nationaleIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
Installations critiques disposant d'une alimentation de secours de 72 heuresIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Installations vitales en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Établissements de santé endommagés ou détruits par des catastrophesIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
Score de l'indice mondial de cybersécurité de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
Niveau de l'indice mondial de cybersécurité de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier |
CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
Pilier mesures juridiques du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
Pilier mesures techniques du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
Pilier mesures organisationnelles du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
Pilier mesures de renforcement des capacités du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development |
CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
Pilier mesures de coopération du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
Équipe nationale de réponse aux incidents informatiques en activitéIND.CYB.capability.national_cert |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
Législation sur la protection des données et de la vie privée en vigueurIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
Cyberincidents importants par million d'habitantsIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate |
CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a |
COUNTRY | |
Cyberincidents perturbant des services critiquesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Valeur ajoutée des services TIC, part du PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
Développement de l'administration en ligneIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Dépense intérieure brute de R&D, part du PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
Chercheurs par million d'habitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
Exportations de haute technologie, part des exportations de produits manufacturésIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
Concentration des fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs importésIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentration des fournisseurs d'infrastructure cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Capacité de calcul pour l'IA sous contrôle étranger ou d'un fournisseur uniqueIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | Intelligence artificielle | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentration des fournisseurs de modèles de fondationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | Intelligence artificielle | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Supervision de la biosûreté et de la biosécurité des laboratoires de haut confinementIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | Biotechnologie | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Stratégie nationale de réduction des risques de catastrophe (RRC) alignée sur le Cadre de Sendai pour la réduction des risques de catastropheIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
Administrations locales dotées de stratégies de réduction des risques de catastrophe (RRC) alignées sur la stratégie nationaleIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
Population à moins de 15 minutes des services d'urgenceIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
05Aléas
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Famille | Domaine | Aléas | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotechnologie et biologie de synthèse | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Technologies d’intervention climatique | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Supply-chain and flow disruption | Événements systémiques et composés | Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … | 17 |
| Cascading failure | Événements systémiques et composés | Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … | 10 |
| Compound and multi-hazard events | Événements systémiques et composés | Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … | 9 |
| Structural fragility of interconnected systems | Événements systémiques et composés | Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … | 11 |
06Méthodes
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
56 methods
Cyber, IA et technologies de pointe
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
21 methods
Réseaux, dépendances et risque systémique
Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Universities and research
Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.
08Rapports
Rapports Nexus
- Edition code
XT-20- Edition status
- prévue
- Objet
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
09Citer
Citer et réutiliser
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Converging technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-20), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-20/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000107.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-20:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.HLT.security.health_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Statut
La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.
Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas
NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.
Institutions et sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.