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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · Exponential technology series

Converging technologies

Risks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-20Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-20 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

4

Health security risk · Governance weakness · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.

Indicators

102

4 index domains

Hazard families

20

Frontier and exponential technology · Systemic and compound events.

Methods

77

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
4
domain indices
102
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
4
client groups

01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which technology combinations create new hazard classes?
  2. Where does convergence outrun governance?
  3. What early signals should be watched?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Converging technologies index is built

Graph8 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings

100%
List
  1. Health security risk

    Domain index · IDX · HLT
    INFORM-style aggregation, on 0 to 10, of epidemic and AMR hazard, disease burden and undernutrition against health-system and IHR capacity, each component oriented by its own polarity.
  2. Governance weakness

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  3. Cyber risk

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Technology concentration risk

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  5. Converging technologies index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-20
    Risks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.
  6. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  8. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Converging technologies index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
குறியீட்டெண் மதிப்பு மாற்றம் Change % 90% interval Class · probability Trend Range
Health security riskNXS-GRX · HLT – – – – –
Governance weaknessNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Health, Governance and institutions.

04Indicators

102 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
HLT · 31GOV · 20CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicator Domain Sub-domain Component Unit Levels Crosswalks
LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Days of dangerous humid heat per yearIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
Heatwave exposure events per personIND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days HAZ Extreme heat exposure d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Population exposed to extreme heat, shareIND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share HAZ Extreme heat exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
PM2.5 exposure, population-weighted meanIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure ENV Air quality hazard ug/m3 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD
Population exposed above the WHO PM2.5 guideline, shareIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share ENV Air quality exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS
Seasonal peak ozone exposureIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Air quality hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Population using safely managed drinking waterIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD
Population using at least basic drinking waterIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS
Population using safely managed sanitationIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD
Population with basic hand-washing facilitiesIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1
Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Transboundary basin area with operational cooperationIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Under-five mortality rateIND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007
Neonatal mortality rateIND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2
Maternal mortality ratioIND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*5 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026
Life expectancy at birthIND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability a COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001
Premature mortality from major non-communicable diseasesIND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070
Tuberculosis incidenceIND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020
Malaria incidenceIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
HIV incidenceIND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS
Medical doctors per 1,000 populationIND.HLT.system.physician_density HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1
Nurses and midwives per 1,000 populationIND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1
Hospital beds per 1,000 populationIND.HLT.system.hospital_beds HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102
UHC service coverage indexIND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD
Population with catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendingIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Out-of-pocket spending, share of current health expenditureIND.HLT.system.oop_share HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011
Current health expenditure, share of GDPIND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS
DTP3 immunisation coverageIND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1
Second-dose measles immunisation coverageIND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1
Births attended by skilled health personnelIND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2
Travel time to the nearest health facilityIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
IHR core capacity score (SPAR)IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018
IHR laboratory capacity (SPAR C4)IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1
IHR surveillance capacity (SPAR C5)IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2
IHR health emergency management capacity (SPAR C7)IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1
IHR risk communication capacity (SPAR C10)IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5
Epidemic event frequencyIND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1
Reported cholera cases, per 100,000 populationIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001
Bloodstream infections due to MRSAIND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream HLT Antimicrobial resistance hazard % COUNTRY WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2
Bloodstream infections due to E. coli resistant to third-generation cephalosporinsIND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream HLT Antimicrobial resistance hazard % COUNTRY WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2
Stunting among children under fiveIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025
Wasting among children under fiveIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026
Anaemia among women of reproductive ageIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043
Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Population aged 65 and over, share of totalIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
Attacks on health careIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologiesIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE Access vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Critical facilities with 72-hour back-up powerIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Lifeline facilities in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Health facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI organisational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Artificial intelligence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Artificial intelligence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
National DRR strategy aligned with the Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Local governments with DRR strategies aligned to the national strategyIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
Population within 15 minutes of emergency servicesIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05அபாயங்கள்

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
FrontierSystemic156HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 20 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Family Domain அபாயங்கள் Count
AI system failure and misalignment எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Climate intervention technologies எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets எல்லைநிலை மற்றும் அதிவேகத் தொழில்நுட்பம் Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Supply-chain and flow disruption Systemic and compound events Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … 17
Cascading failure Systemic and compound events Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … 10
Compound and multi-hazard events Systemic and compound events Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … 9
Structural fragility of interconnected systems Systemic and compound events Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … 11
06Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Cyber, AI and frontier technology

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

21 methods

Networks, dependency and systemic risk

Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

08அறிக்கைகள்

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-20
Edition status
planned
Subject
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Converging technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-20), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-20/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000107.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-20:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.HLT.security.health_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Country profiles All series

நிலை

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.