The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · Exponential technology series
融合する技術
フロンティア技術が組み合わさるところで生じ（AI とバイオテクノロジー、自律とサイバー、計算資源とエネルギー）、単一技術のガバナンスを追い越すリスク。
Page GRX-SER-XT-20Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-20 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
分野別指数
4
Health security risk · Governance weakness · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.
指標
102
4 index domains
Hazard families
20
Frontier and exponential technology · Systemic and compound events.
手法
77
Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.
4
分野別指数
102
indicators in scope
2
ハザードの分野
4
client groups
01対象範囲
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which technology combinations create new hazard classes?
- Where does convergence outrun governance?
- What early signals should be watched?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Converging technologies index is built
Graph8 nodes
グラフ
01分野別指数
02Series index
03Readings
100%
索引
-
健康安全保障リスクDomain index · IDX · HLTINFORM-style aggregation, on 0 to 10, of epidemic and AMR hazard, disease burden and undernutrition against health-system and IHR capacity, each component oriented by its own polarity.
-
ガバナンスの脆弱性Domain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
-
サイバーリスクDomain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
技術集中リスクDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
Converging technologies indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-20フロンティア技術が組み合わさるところで生じ（AI とバイオテクノロジー、自律とサイバー、計算資源とエネルギー）、単一技術のガバナンスを追い越すリスク。
-
Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未実行進行中完了
03指数
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Converging technologies index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
| インデックス | 値 | 変化 | 変化 % | 90% 区間 | 区分 · 確率 | 傾向 | 幅 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
健康安全保障リスクNXS-GRX · HLT |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
ガバナンスの脆弱性NXS-GRX · GOV |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
サイバーリスクNXS-GRX · CYB |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
技術集中リスクNXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Health, Governance and institutions.
04指標
102 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指標 | 分野 | Sub-domain | 構成要素 | 単位 | レベル | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIC-DSF 複合指標スコア（公表値、参考）IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
重要鉱物の純輸入依存度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
適応投資に向けた経済的準備度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
適応に向けたガバナンスの準備度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
危険な湿潤暑熱の年間日数IND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501 |
1 人あたりの熱波エクスポージャー事象IND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
極端な暑さにさらされる人口（割合）IND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
PM2.5 エクスポージャー（人口加重平均）IND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure |
ENV | 大気質 | hazard | ug/m3 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD |
WHO の PM2.5 指針値を超える環境にさらされる人口（割合）IND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share |
ENV | 大気質 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS |
季節ピーク時のオゾン・エクスポージャーIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure |
ENV | 大気質 | hazard | [ppb] |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
安全に管理された飲料水を利用する人口IND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD |
少なくとも基本的な飲料水を利用する人口IND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS |
安全に管理された衛生施設を利用する人口IND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD |
基本的な手洗い設備がある人口IND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1 |
国外の再生可能水資源への依存率IND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
運用中の協力体制がある越境流域の面積IND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
5 歳未満児死亡率IND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007 |
新生児死亡率IND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2 |
妊産婦死亡率IND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026 |
出生時平均余命IND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001 |
主要な非感染性疾患による早期死亡IND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070 |
結核罹患率IND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020 |
マラリア罹患率IND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA |
HIV 罹患率IND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS |
人口 1,000 人あたり医師数IND.HLT.system.physician_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1 |
人口 1,000 人あたり看護師・助産師数IND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1 |
人口 1,000 人あたり病床数IND.HLT.system.hospital_beds |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102 |
UHC サービス・カバレッジ指数IND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD |
壊滅的な自己負担医療費を負う人口IND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
自己負担支出（経常保健支出に占める割合）IND.HLT.system.oop_share |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011 |
経常保健支出（GDP 比）IND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS |
DTP3 予防接種率IND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1 |
麻疹ワクチン 2 回目接種率IND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1 |
熟練した医療従事者が立ち会う出産IND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2 |
最寄りの医療施設までの移動時間IND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
IHR コア能力スコア（SPAR）IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018 |
IHR 検査能力（SPAR C4）IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1 |
IHR サーベイランス能力（SPAR C5）IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2 |
IHR 健康危機管理能力（SPAR C7）IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1 |
IHR リスク・コミュニケーション能力（SPAR C10）IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5 |
感染症流行事象の頻度IND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
報告されたコレラ症例（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001 |
MRSA による血流感染IND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2 |
第 3 世代セファロスポリン耐性大腸菌（E. coli）による血流感染IND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2 |
5 歳未満児の発育阻害IND.HLT.nutrition.stunting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025 |
5 歳未満児の消耗症IND.HLT.nutrition.wasting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026 |
妊娠可能年齢の女性の貧血IND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043 |
国会で女性が占める議席IND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
65 歳以上人口（総人口に占める割合）IND.DEM.structure.share_65plus |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
医療への攻撃IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
国民の発言力と説明責任（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
政治的安定と暴力の不在（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
政府の有効性（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
汚職の抑制（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
腐敗認識指数（Transparency International）IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
報道の自由スコア（RSF）IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
法の支配（WGI）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
財産権とルールに基づくガバナンス（CPIA）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
未決拘禁者（受刑者人口に占める割合）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
企業の贈賄発生率IND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
規制の質（WGI）IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
CPIA 総合評価（IDA 資源配分指数）IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA 公共部門の管理と制度IND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA 公共部門の透明性、説明責任、汚職IND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
歳入動員の効率性（CPIA）IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
承認予算からの予算執行の乖離IND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
統計パフォーマンス指標の総合スコアIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
出生登録の完全性IND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
前回の国勢調査からの年数IND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
ビジネス環境スコア（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
主にクリーンな調理用燃料・技術に頼る人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking |
ENE | アクセス | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
インターネット利用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
国際接続経路の冗長性IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
全国規模のインターネット障害の時間数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
72 時間のバックアップ電源を備えた重要施設IND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
高ハザード地域のライフライン施設（割合）IND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
災害で損壊または破壊された保健施設IND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
ITU グローバル・サイバーセキュリティ指数スコアIND.CYB.capability.gci_score |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
ITU グローバル・サイバーセキュリティ指数の階層IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier |
CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
ITU GCI 法的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
ITU GCI 技術的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
ITU GCI 組織的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
ITU GCI 能力開発措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development |
CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
ITU GCI 協力措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
国のコンピュータ・インシデント対応チームの運用IND.CYB.capability.national_cert |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
データ保護・プライバシー法の施行IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
人口 100 万人あたりの重大なサイバー・インシデントIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate |
CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a |
COUNTRY | |
重要サービスを途絶させるサイバー・インシデントIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
ICT サービスの付加価値（GDP 比）IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
電子政府の発展度IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
研究開発費総額（GDP 比）IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
人口 100 万人あたり研究者数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
ハイテク輸出（工業製品輸出に占める割合）IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
半導体の輸入供給元集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
クラウド・インフラ提供者の集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
外国または単一提供者の管理下にある AI 計算能力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | 人工知能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
基盤モデル提供者の集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | 人工知能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
高度封じ込め実験施設のバイオセーフティとバイオセキュリティの監督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | バイオテクノロジー | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
仙台防災枠組に沿った国の DRR 戦略IND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
国の戦略に沿った DRR 戦略を持つ地方自治体IND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
救急サービスまで 15 分以内の人口IND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
05ハザード
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| ファミリー | 分野 | ハザード | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| バイオテクノロジーと合成生物学 | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| 気候介入技術 | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Supply-chain and flow disruption | システミック事象と複合事象 | Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … | 17 |
| Cascading failure | システミック事象と複合事象 | Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … | 10 |
| Compound and multi-hazard events | システミック事象と複合事象 | Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … | 9 |
| Structural fragility of interconnected systems | システミック事象と複合事象 | Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … | 11 |
06手法
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
56 methods
サイバー、AI、フロンティア技術
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
21 methods
ネットワーク、依存関係、システミック・リスク
Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Universities and research
Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.
08レポート
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-20- Edition status
- 予定
- 対象
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
09引用
引用と再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Converging technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-20), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-20/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000107.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-20:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.HLT.security.health_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
ステータス
The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。
NXS-GRX ではないもの
NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。
機関と情報源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.