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Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-TEC · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

技術集中リスク指数

Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-TECEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

不確実性

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

構成

4 components

10 leaf indicators

対象範囲

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 100%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
10
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
21
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows exposure to frontier-technology chokepoints against the capacity to absorb them; heavily target-defined, so its grade is capped and its sub-indices are always shown.

computation
How Technology concentration risk is computed
Graph16 nodes
グラフ
01指標
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04柱
05総合
100%
索引
  1. 半導体の輸入供給元集中度
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import origin, on a 0–1 scale, for semiconductor devices and electronic integrated circuits (HS 8541 and 8542), by value.
  2. クラウド・インフラ提供者の集中度
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index, on a 0–1 scale, of public-cloud infrastructure (IaaS and PaaS) spend or hosted capacity serving the economy, across providers.
  3. 外国または単一提供者の管理下にある AI 計算能力
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the accelerator compute (AI-capable GPU/TPU capacity) used by residents that is hosted abroad or controlled by a single provider, by installed capacity.
  4. 基盤モデル提供者の集中度
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of AI-model use in the economy’s public and critical sectors served by the three largest foundation-model providers.
  5. 重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
  6. 重要鉱物輸入に占める最大供給元の割合
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
  7. 研究開発費総額（GDP 比）
    Indicator · IND · %
    Gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development by business, government, higher education and private non-profit sectors, as a percentage of GDP (Frascati Manual basis).
  8. 人口 100 万人あたり研究者数
    Indicator · IND · /10*6
    Full-time-equivalent researchers engaged in research and experimental development per million inhabitants.
  9. ハイテク輸出（工業製品輸出に占める割合）
    Indicator · IND · %
    Exports of products with high R&D intensity (aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electrical machinery) as a percentage of manufactured exports.
  10. Technology dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%
    Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
  11. Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%
    Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
  12. 高度封じ込め実験施設のバイオセーフティとバイオセキュリティの監督
    Indicator · IND · w 0.5
    Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
  13. Innovation capacity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%
    Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
  14. 技術集中リスク指数
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  15. マクロ金融と構造の脆弱性
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  16. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未実行進行中完了
FIG 2. 10 indicators, 4 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate technology concentration risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
25
1
–
ブラウザで動作
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03手法

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
100% of weight
Weighting
専門家
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
不確実性
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; No mature international indicator standard: target-only
非常に低い0.0〜< 2.0
低い2.0〜< 3.5
中程度3.5〜< 5.0
高い5.0〜< 6.5
非常に高い6.5 から 10.0
04Components

4 components, 10 indicators

Technology dependence sub-index w 2

Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.

指標単位エビデンス出典割合
半導体の輸入供給元集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, baci-cepii37.5%
クラウド・インフラ提供者の集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration1Class Enational-competition-authority-market-studies, commercial-market-research-licensed25.0%
外国または単一提供者の管理下にある AI 計算能力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control%Class Eoecd-ai-compute-measurement, national-ai-strategies, top50025.0%
基盤モデル提供者の集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration%Class Epublic-procurement-records, national-ai-registers, commercial-market-research-licensed12.5%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

指標単位エビデンス出典割合
重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries50.0%
重要鉱物輸入に占める最大供給元の割合IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share%Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer50.0%

Innovation capacity sub-index w 1

Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.

指標単位エビデンス出典割合
研究開発費総額（GDP 比）IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp%Class Aunesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi40.0%
人口 100 万人あたり研究者数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million/10*6Class Aunesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi40.0%
ハイテク輸出（工業製品輸出に占める割合）IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports%Class Aun-comtrade, wb-wdi20.0%

Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratories w 0.5

Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.

指標単位エビデンス出典割合
高度封じ込め実験施設のバイオセーフティとバイオセキュリティの監督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight{score}Class Eglobal-biolabs-report, who-jee-reports, national-biosafety-regulators100.0%
05分野

Technology and frontier

Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum).

Sub-domain指標
Technology capability3
Concentration and dependence2
人工知能2
バイオテクノロジー1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): No mature international indicator standard: target-only.

06指標

All 8 technology and frontier indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指標分野Sub-domain構成要素単位レベルCrosswalks
研究開発費総額（GDP 比）IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdpTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
人口 100 万人あたり研究者数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_millionTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity/10*6COUNTRYSDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
ハイテク輸出（工業製品輸出に占める割合）IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exportsTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
半導体の輸入供給元集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
クラウド・インフラ提供者の集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
外国または単一提供者の管理下にある AI 計算能力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_controlTEC人工知能vulnerability%COUNTRY
基盤モデル提供者の集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentrationTEC人工知能vulnerability%COUNTRY
高度封じ込め実験施設のバイオセーフティとバイオセキュリティの監督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversightTECバイオテクノロジーcoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
07引用

Technology concentration risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · TEC · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Technology concentration risk index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
前回の版
–
Range since 2016
–
結合総合
–
結合スコア S
–
パルス、直近 1 週間
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
手法
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
抽出
1,000
Technology concentration risk index, world, by edition

公開済みの値はまだありません。最初の版で、区間の帯と区分の境界とともに履歴がここに描かれます。

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
アフリカ54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
南北アメリカ35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
アジア48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
ヨーロッパ44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
オセアニア14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
変動はまだありません。 前版からの変化は、第 2 版以降、その要因となった指標とともにここに掲載されます。
08値

Country values

FIG 5 · Technology concentration risk index: countries (values when released)
地図を読み込み中
アンドラアンティグア・バーブーダバーレーンバルバドスコモロカーボベルデドミニカ国ミクロネシア連邦グレナダキリバスセントクリストファー・ネーヴィスセントルシアリヒテンシュタインモナコモルディブマーシャル諸島マルタモーリシャスナウルパラオシンガポールサンマリノサントメ・プリンシペセーシェルトンガツバルバチカンセントビンセント及びグレナディーン諸島サモア
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
タイル
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/tec/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
観測キー
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09シリーズ

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. GS-15Global Science and engineeringThe scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration. SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction. SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk. SR-13Strategic technologyConcentration and control of strategic technologies, export controls and technological dependency. XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps. XT-03Telecommunications, open radio networks and edgeTelecom resilience, open and AI-native radio access networks, private wireless, edge compute and spectrum constraints. XT-04Sovereign compute, HPC and cloudCompute dependency and concentration, cloud and data-residency risk, accelerator supply and secure compute. XT-05Quantum-relevant securityCryptographic resilience and the migration to post-quantum cryptography across public and financial systems. XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure. XT-08Drones, robotics and autonomous systemsAutonomous and robotic systems in logistics, agriculture, industry and security: failure, misuse and safety oversight. XT-09Sensors, IoT and industrial IoTConnected sensing and control across cities, utilities and industry: attack surface, data integrity and dependency. XT-10Digital twins and simulationDigital twins and simulation used for risk decisions: model risk, validation and dependency. XT-14Software and supply-chain integrityOpen-source and commercial software dependencies, build integrity and provenance across critical systems. XT-15Biotechnology and biosecurityBiotechnology capability and governance at public-safe level: laboratory biosafety, oversight and detection capacity; no capability information is published. XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks. XT-17Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructureDistributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk. XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only. XT-19Neurotechnology and human augmentationNeurotechnology and augmentation: safety, privacy, equity and governance risks. XT-20Converging technologiesRisks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
SDG3
WB_WDI3
11Nexus 全体で

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12引用

引用と再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Technology concentration risk index (GRX-IDX-TEC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/technology-concentration-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000130.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

ステータス

The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。

NXS-GRX ではないもの

NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。

機関と情報源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.