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Глобальный индекс рисков (Global Risks Index)
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-TEC · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Индекс риска технологической концентрации

Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Строительство Симулятор Индикаторы
Page GRX-IDX-TECEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Неопределённость

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Структура

4 components

10 leaf indicators

Охват

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 100%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
10
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
21
series read it
01Строительство

From indicators to the composite

Shows exposure to frontier-technology chokepoints against the capacity to absorb them; heavily target-defined, so its grade is capped and its sub-indices are always shown.

computation
How Technology concentration risk is computed
Graph16 nodes
Граф
01Индикаторы
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Опора
05Совокупный
100%
Указатель
  1. Концентрация поставщиков импорта полупроводников
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import origin, on a 0–1 scale, for semiconductor devices and electronic integrated circuits (HS 8541 and 8542), by value.
  2. Концентрация поставщиков облачной инфраструктуры
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index, on a 0–1 scale, of public-cloud infrastructure (IaaS and PaaS) spend or hosted capacity serving the economy, across providers.
  3. Вычислительные мощности ИИ под контролем иностранного или единственного поставщика
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the accelerator compute (AI-capable GPU/TPU capacity) used by residents that is hosted abroad or controlled by a single provider, by installed capacity.
  4. Концентрация поставщиков базовых моделей
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of AI-model use in the economy’s public and critical sectors served by the three largest foundation-model providers.
  5. Концентрация поставщиков импорта критически важных минералов
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
  6. Доля крупнейшего поставщика в импорте критически важных минералов
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
  7. Валовые внутренние расходы на НИОКР, доля ВВП
    Indicator · IND · %
    Gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development by business, government, higher education and private non-profit sectors, as a percentage of GDP (Frascati Manual basis).
  8. Исследователи на миллион жителей
    Indicator · IND · /10*6
    Full-time-equivalent researchers engaged in research and experimental development per million inhabitants.
  9. Высокотехнологичный экспорт, доля экспорта промышленных товаров
    Indicator · IND · %
    Exports of products with high R&D intensity (aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electrical machinery) as a percentage of manufactured exports.
  10. Technology dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%
    Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
  11. Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%
    Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
  12. Надзор за биобезопасностью лабораторий высокого уровня защиты
    Indicator · IND · w 0.5
    Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
  13. Innovation capacity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%
    Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
  14. Индекс риска технологической концентрации
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  15. Макрофинансовая и структурная хрупкость
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  16. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Не запускалсяВыполняетсяГотово
FIG 2. 10 indicators, 4 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Симулятор

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate technology concentration risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
25
1
–
работает в вашем браузере
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Метод

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
100% of weight
Weighting
эксперт
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Неопределённость
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; No mature international indicator standard: target-only
Очень низкийот 0.0 до < 2.0
Низкийот 2.0 до < 3.5
Среднийот 3.5 до < 5.0
Высокийот 5.0 до < 6.5
Очень высокийот 6.5 до 10.0
04Components

4 components, 10 indicators

Technology dependence sub-index w 2

Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.

ИндикаторЕдиницаДоказательная базаИсточникиДоля
Концентрация поставщиков импорта полупроводниковIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, baci-cepii37.5%
Концентрация поставщиков облачной инфраструктурыIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration1Class Enational-competition-authority-market-studies, commercial-market-research-licensed25.0%
Вычислительные мощности ИИ под контролем иностранного или единственного поставщикаIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control%Class Eoecd-ai-compute-measurement, national-ai-strategies, top50025.0%
Концентрация поставщиков базовых моделейIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration%Class Epublic-procurement-records, national-ai-registers, commercial-market-research-licensed12.5%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

ИндикаторЕдиницаДоказательная базаИсточникиДоля
Концентрация поставщиков импорта критически важных минераловIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries50.0%
Доля крупнейшего поставщика в импорте критически важных минераловIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share%Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer50.0%

Innovation capacity sub-index w 1

Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.

ИндикаторЕдиницаДоказательная базаИсточникиДоля
Валовые внутренние расходы на НИОКР, доля ВВПIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp%Class Aunesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi40.0%
Исследователи на миллион жителейIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million/10*6Class Aunesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi40.0%
Высокотехнологичный экспорт, доля экспорта промышленных товаровIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports%Class Aun-comtrade, wb-wdi20.0%

Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratories w 0.5

Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.

ИндикаторЕдиницаДоказательная базаИсточникиДоля
Надзор за биобезопасностью лабораторий высокого уровня защитыIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight{score}Class Eglobal-biolabs-report, who-jee-reports, national-biosafety-regulators100.0%
05Домен

Technology and frontier

Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum).

Sub-domainИндикаторы
Technology capability3
Concentration and dependence2
Искусственный интеллект2
Биотехнологии1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): No mature international indicator standard: target-only.

06Индикаторы

All 8 technology and frontier indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
ИндикаторДоменSub-domainКомпонентЕдиницаУровниCrosswalks
Валовые внутренние расходы на НИОКР, доля ВВПIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdpTECTechnology capabilityадаптивная способность%COUNTRYSDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Исследователи на миллион жителейIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_millionTECTechnology capabilityадаптивная способность/10*6COUNTRYSDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Высокотехнологичный экспорт, доля экспорта промышленных товаровIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exportsTECTechnology capabilityадаптивная способность%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Концентрация поставщиков импорта полупроводниковIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Концентрация поставщиков облачной инфраструктурыIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Вычислительные мощности ИИ под контролем иностранного или единственного поставщикаIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_controlTECИскусственный интеллектvulnerability%COUNTRY
Концентрация поставщиков базовых моделейIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentrationTECИскусственный интеллектvulnerability%COUNTRY
Надзор за биобезопасностью лабораторий высокого уровня защитыIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversightTECБиотехнологиипотенциал реагирования{score}COUNTRY
07Котировка

Technology concentration risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · TEC · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Technology concentration risk index, world
–
Значения публикуются с выпуском; здесь появятся интервал, класс и изменение.
Предыдущий выпуск
–
Range since 2016
–
Совокупный показатель с учётом взаимосвязей
–
Показатель взаимосвязанности S
–
Pulse, последняя неделя
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Метод
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Выборки
1,000
Technology concentration risk index, world, by edition

Опубликованных значений пока нет. Первый выпуск отобразит здесь историю с интервальной полосой и границами классов.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Африка54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Америка35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Азия48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Европа44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Океания14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Изменений пока нет. Начиная со второго выпуска здесь будут перечисляться изменения по сравнению с предыдущим выпуском вместе с показателями, которые их обусловили.
08Значения

Country values

FIG 5 · Technology concentration risk index: countries (values when released)
Загрузка карты
АндорраАнтигуа и БарбудаБахрейнБарбадосКоморские ОстроваКабо-ВердеДоминикаМикронезия (Федеративные Штаты)ГренадаКирибатиСент-Китс и НевисСент-ЛюсияЛихтенштейнМонакоМальдивские ОстроваМаршалловы ОстроваМальтаМаврикийНауруПалауСингапурСан-МариноСан-Томе и ПринсипиСейшельские ОстроваТонгаТувалуСвятой ПрестолСент-Винсент и ГренадиныСамоа
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Тайлы
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/tec/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Ключ наблюдения
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Серии

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. GS-15Global Science and engineeringThe scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration. SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction. SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk. SR-13Strategic technologyConcentration and control of strategic technologies, export controls and technological dependency. XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps. XT-03Telecommunications, open radio networks and edgeTelecom resilience, open and AI-native radio access networks, private wireless, edge compute and spectrum constraints. XT-04Sovereign compute, HPC and cloudCompute dependency and concentration, cloud and data-residency risk, accelerator supply and secure compute. XT-05Quantum-relevant securityCryptographic resilience and the migration to post-quantum cryptography across public and financial systems. XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure. XT-08Drones, robotics and autonomous systemsAutonomous and robotic systems in logistics, agriculture, industry and security: failure, misuse and safety oversight. XT-09Sensors, IoT and industrial IoTConnected sensing and control across cities, utilities and industry: attack surface, data integrity and dependency. XT-10Digital twins and simulationDigital twins and simulation used for risk decisions: model risk, validation and dependency. XT-14Software and supply-chain integrityOpen-source and commercial software dependencies, build integrity and provenance across critical systems. XT-15Biotechnology and biosecurityBiotechnology capability and governance at public-safe level: laboratory biosafety, oversight and detection capacity; no capability information is published. XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks. XT-17Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructureDistributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk. XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only. XT-19Neurotechnology and human augmentationNeurotechnology and augmentation: safety, privacy, equity and governance risks. XT-20Converging technologiesRisks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
SDG3
WB_WDI3
11По всему Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Цитирование

Цитирование и повторное использование

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Technology concentration risk index (GRX-IDX-TEC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/technology-concentration-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000130.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Статус

Методология, структура и определения The Global Risks Index представляют собой предварительный рабочий проект (2026), распространяемый для рассмотрения и комментариев, а не для применения. Значения не появляются, пока выпуск не будет опубликован на основе управляемого среза доказательной базы; тогда значения сопровождаются интервалами, классами, источниками и порядком их исправления. Симуляторы применяют опубликованные методы к выбранным вами числам и никогда не показывают значение NXS-GRX.

Чем NXS-GRX не является

NXS-GRX является исследовательской и риск-аналитической информацией. Это не кредитный и не ESG-рейтинг, и в нём не используется рейтинговая шкала; это не эталон для финансовых инструментов, не официальная статистика, не экстренное предупреждение или официальная классификация и не консультация. Его нельзя использовать для оценки физических лиц. Классы риска являются диапазонами на опубликованной шкале и никогда не являются рейтингами стран или людей.

Учреждения и источники

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Каждое значение сопровождается указанием его источников, которые сохраняют собственные лицензии. Внешние названия приводятся только для обеспечения совместимости. Тексты, подготовленные Nexus, предполагается публиковать по лицензии CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.