Indice di rischio di concentrazione tecnologica
Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
10 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 100%
From indicators to the composite
Shows exposure to frontier-technology chokepoints against the capacity to absorb them; heavily target-defined, so its grade is capped and its sub-indices are always shown.
- Concentrazione dei fornitori di semiconduttori importatiIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import origin, on a 0–1 scale, for semiconductor devices and electronic integrated circuits (HS 8541 and 8542), by value.
- Concentrazione dei fornitori di infrastrutture cloudIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index, on a 0–1 scale, of public-cloud infrastructure (IaaS and PaaS) spend or hosted capacity serving the economy, across providers.
- Capacità di calcolo per l'IA sotto controllo estero o di un unico fornitoreIndicator · IND · %Share of the accelerator compute (AI-capable GPU/TPU capacity) used by residents that is hosted abroad or controlled by a single provider, by installed capacity.
- Concentrazione dei fornitori di modelli di baseIndicator · IND · %Share of AI-model use in the economy’s public and critical sectors served by the three largest foundation-model providers.
- Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIndicator · IND · 1Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
- Quota del principale fornitore nelle importazioni di minerali criticiIndicator · IND · %Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
- Spesa interna lorda in R&S, quota del PILIndicator · IND · %Gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development by business, government, higher education and private non-profit sectors, as a percentage of GDP (Frascati Manual basis).
- Ricercatori per milione di abitantiIndicator · IND · /10*6Full-time-equivalent researchers engaged in research and experimental development per million inhabitants.
- Esportazioni ad alta tecnologia, quota delle esportazioni manifatturiereIndicator · IND · %Exports of products with high R&D intensity (aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electrical machinery) as a percentage of manufactured exports.
- Technology dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
- Critical-mineral dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
- Supervisione di biosicurezza dei laboratori ad alto contenimentoIndicator · IND · w 0.5Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
- Innovation capacity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
- Indice di rischio di concentrazione tecnologicaDomain index · IDX · arithmeticIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Fragilità macrofinanziaria e strutturalePillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM 0–10 rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 100% of weight
- Weighting
- esperto
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertezza
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; No mature international indicator standard: target-only
4 components, 10 indicators
Technology dependence sub-index w 2
Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Concentrazione dei fornitori di semiconduttori importatiIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, baci-cepii | 37.5% |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di infrastrutture cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | 1 | Class E | national-competition-authority-market-studies, commercial-market-research-licensed | 25.0% |
Capacità di calcolo per l'IA sotto controllo estero o di un unico fornitoreIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | % | Class E | oecd-ai-compute-measurement, national-ai-strategies, top500 | 25.0% |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di modelli di baseIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | % | Class E | public-procurement-records, national-ai-registers, commercial-market-research-licensed | 12.5% |
Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries | 50.0% |
Quota del principale fornitore nelle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | % | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer | 50.0% |
Innovation capacity sub-index w 1
Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Spesa interna lorda in R&S, quota del PILIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | % | Class A | unesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi | 40.0% |
Ricercatori per milione di abitantiIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | /10*6 | Class A | unesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi | 40.0% |
Esportazioni ad alta tecnologia, quota delle esportazioni manifatturiereIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | % | Class A | un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratories w 0.5
Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Supervisione di biosicurezza dei laboratori ad alto contenimentoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | {score} | Class E | global-biolabs-report, who-jee-reports, national-biosafety-regulators | 100.0% |
Technology and frontier
Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum).
| Sub-domain | Indicatori |
|---|---|
| Technology capability | 3 |
| Concentration and dependence | 2 |
| Intelligenza artificiale | 2 |
| Biotecnologie | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): No mature international indicator standard: target-only.
All 8 technology and frontier indicators
| Indicatore | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unità | Livelli | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spesa interna lorda in R&S, quota del PILIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
Ricercatori per milione di abitantiIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
Esportazioni ad alta tecnologia, quota delle esportazioni manifatturiereIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di semiconduttori importatiIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di infrastrutture cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Capacità di calcolo per l'IA sotto controllo estero o di un unico fornitoreIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Intelligenza artificiale | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di modelli di baseIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | Intelligenza artificiale | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Supervisione di biosicurezza dei laboratori ad alto contenimentoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | Biotecnologie | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
Technology concentration risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edizione precedente
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Composito accoppiato
- –
- Punteggio di accoppiamento S
- –
- Pulse, ultima settimana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Metodo
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Estrazioni
- 1,000
Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.
Country values
- Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/tec/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
SDG | 3 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Cita e riutilizza
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Stato
La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.
Che cosa non è NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.
Istituzioni e fonti
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.