Skip to content

Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-04 · Exponential technology series

ソブリン計算資源、HPC、クラウド

計算資源の依存と集中、クラウドとデータ所在地のリスク、アクセラレーターの供給、セキュアな計算。

Page GRX-SER-XT-04Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-04 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
分野別指数

1

技術集中リスク

指標

57

3 index domains

Hazard families

35

Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems · Built systems.

手法

56

サイバー、AI、フロンティア技術

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
分野別指数
57
indicators in scope
3
ハザードの分野
3
client groups

01対象範囲

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. How concentrated is national compute dependency?
  2. Where would a cloud outage stop public services?
  3. Who controls the accelerators risk science relies on?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index is built

Graph5 nodes
グラフ
01分野別指数
02Series index
03Readings

100%
索引
  1. 技術集中リスク

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-04
    計算資源の依存と集中、クラウドとデータ所在地のリスク、アクセラレーターの供給、セキュアな計算。
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未実行進行中完了
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03指数

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-04 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
インデックス 値 変化 変化 % 90% 区間 区分 · 確率 傾向 幅
技術集中リスクNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Energy.

04指標

57 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指標 分野 Sub-domain 構成要素 単位 レベル Crosswalks
燃料輸入(商品輸入に占める割合)IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
重要鉱物の純輸入依存度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
LULUCF を除く温室効果ガス総排出量IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
GDP の炭素集約度IND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
明示的な化石燃料補助金(GDP 比)IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
水ストレスの水準IND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT 水ストレス hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
地電界ハザードの高い地域にある高圧送電網(割合)IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
電力を利用できる人口IND.ENE.access.electricity_access ENE アクセス vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
主にクリーンな調理用燃料・技術に頼る人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE アクセス vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
1 人あたり電力消費量IND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc ENE アクセス context kW.h/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
最終エネルギー消費総量に占める再生可能エネルギーの割合IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
GDP の一次エネルギー原単位IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
電源構成の集中度IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration ENE Energy mix vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
発電量に占める化石燃料の割合IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
1 人あたり再生可能エネルギー設備容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
水に依存する発電(割合)IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1
エネルギーの純輸入依存度IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports ENE Supply security and import dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
燃料輸入額(財・サービスの輸出比)IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
原油・石油製品の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
天然ガスの輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
石炭の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
石油備蓄(純輸入日数)IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks ENE Supply security and import dependence coping capacity d COUNTRY
典型的な 1 か月に企業が経験する停電IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
停電による損失額(企業売上高に占める割合)IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss ENE Reliability impact % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
系統平均停電時間(SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
系統平均停電頻度(SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
送配電損失IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses ENE Reliability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
冷暖房度日IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
重要鉱物輸入に占める最大供給元の割合IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
インターネット利用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
国際接続経路の冗長性IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
全国規模のインターネット障害の時間数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
電力網のレジリエンスIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
高ハザード地域の発電・送電網設備(割合)IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
ITU グローバル・サイバーセキュリティ指数スコアIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
ITU グローバル・サイバーセキュリティ指数の階層IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI 法的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI 技術的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI 組織的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI 能力開発措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI 協力措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
国のコンピュータ・インシデント対応チームの運用IND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
データ保護・プライバシー法の施行IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
人口 100 万人あたりの重大なサイバー・インシデントIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
重要サービスを途絶させるサイバー・インシデントIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT サービスの付加価値(GDP 比)IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
電子政府の発展度IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
研究開発費総額(GDP 比)IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
人口 100 万人あたり研究者数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
ハイテク輸出(工業製品輸出に占める割合)IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
半導体の輸入供給元集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
クラウド・インフラ提供者の集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
外国または単一提供者の管理下にある AI 計算能力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
基盤モデル提供者の集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
高度封じ込め実験施設のバイオセーフティとバイオセキュリティの監督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC バイオテクノロジー coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05ハザード

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Built情報フロンティア267HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 35 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
ファミリー 分野 ハザード Count
AI system failure and misalignment フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
バイオテクノロジーと合成生物学 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
気候介入技術 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Malicious compromise 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
Structural and civil failure 建造システム Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture 8
Utility and communication network outage 建造システム Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure 6
Transport accidents 建造システム Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash 5
Industrial and process accidents 建造システム Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … 15
Energy system instability and shortfall 建造システム Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … 22
Water and wastewater system failure 建造システム Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … 9
Telecom and data-centre failure 建造システム Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss 8
Space-based service loss 建造システム Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure 4
Seabed infrastructure damage 建造システム Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage 3
Transport network disruption 建造システム Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … 12
Food system infrastructure failure 建造システム Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production 5
Urban and building-stock stress 建造システム Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure 6
Ageing and degraded infrastructure 建造システム Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage 7
06手法

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

サイバー、AI、フロンティア技術

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

08レポート

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-04
Edition status
予定
対象
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09引用

引用と再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud series (GRX-SER-XT-04), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-04/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000091.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-04:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.