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El Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-04 · Exponential technology series

Cómputo soberano, HPC y nube

Dependencia y concentración del cómputo, riesgo de la nube y de residencia de datos, suministro de aceleradores y cómputo seguro.

Page GRX-SER-XT-04Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-04 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de dominio

1

Riesgo de concentración tecnológica

Indicadores

57

3 index domains

Hazard families

35

Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems · Built systems.

Métodos

56

Ciber, IA y tecnologías de frontera

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
índices temáticos
57
indicators in scope
3
ámbitos de amenaza
3
client groups

01Alcance

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. How concentrated is national compute dependency?
  2. Where would a cloud outage stop public services?
  3. Who controls the accelerators risk science relies on?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de dominio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Riesgo de concentración tecnológica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-04
    Dependencia y concentración del cómputo, riesgo de la nube y de residencia de datos, suministro de aceleradores y cómputo seguro.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Sin ejecutarEn cursoCompletado
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-04 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index, world
–
Los valores se publican con la edición; el intervalo, la clase y la variación aparecen aquí.
Índice Valor Variación Variación % Intervalo del 90 % Clase · probabilidad Tendencia Rango
Riesgo de concentración tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Energy.

04Indicadores

57 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Dominio Sub-domain Componente Unidad Niveles Crosswalks
Importaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Emisiones totales de gases de efecto invernadero sin UTCUTSIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Intensidad de carbono del PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Subsidios explícitos a los combustibles fósiles, porcentaje del PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Nivel de estrés hídricoIND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT Estrés hídrico hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
Red de alta tensión en zonas de alta amenaza geoeléctrica, proporciónIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Población con acceso a la electricidadIND.ENE.access.electricity_access ENE Acceso vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
Población que depende principalmente de combustibles y tecnologías limpios para cocinarIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE Acceso vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Consumo de electricidad per cápitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc ENE Acceso context kW.h/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Proporción renovable del consumo total de energía finalIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Intensidad de energía primaria del PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Concentración de la matriz de generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration ENE Energy mix vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Proporción fósil de la generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Capacidad instalada de generación renovable per cápitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
Generación eléctrica dependiente del agua, proporciónIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de energíaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports ENE Supply security and import dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Factura de importación de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de bienes y serviciosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbónIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Reservas de petróleo en días de importaciones netasIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks ENE Supply security and import dependence coping capacity d COUNTRY
Cortes de electricidad sufridos por las empresas en un mes típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Valor perdido por cortes eléctricos, porcentaje de las ventas de las empresasIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss ENE Reliability impact % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
Duración media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Frecuencia media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Pérdidas en la transmisión y distribución de electricidadIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses ENE Reliability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Grados-día de calefacción y refrigeraciónIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Personas que usan InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundancia de rutas de conectividad internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Horas de interrupción de Internet a escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Resiliencia de la red eléctricaIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Activos de generación y red eléctrica en zonas de alta amenaza, proporciónIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Puntuación del Global Cybersecurity Index de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Nivel en el Global Cybersecurity Index de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar de medidas jurídicas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar de medidas técnicas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar de medidas organizativas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar de medidas de desarrollo de capacidades del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar de medidas de cooperación del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Equipo nacional de respuesta a incidentes informáticos en funcionamientoIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Legislación vigente de protección de datos y privacidadIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Ciberincidentes significativos por millón de habitantesIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Ciberincidentes que interrumpen servicios críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valor añadido de los servicios TIC, porcentaje del PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Desarrollo del gobierno electrónicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Gasto interno bruto en I+D, porcentaje del PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Investigadores por millón de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportaciones de alta tecnología, porcentaje de las exportaciones de manufacturasIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de semiconductoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de infraestructura en la nubeIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacidad de cómputo de IA bajo control extranjero o de un único proveedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Inteligencia artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de modelos fundacionalesIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Inteligencia artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisión de la bioseguridad y la bioprotección de los laboratorios de alta contenciónIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnología coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Amenazas

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
BuiltInformaciónFrontera267HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 35 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Familia Dominio Amenazas Count
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnología y biología sintética Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologías de intervención climática Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Malicious compromise Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
Structural and civil failure Sistemas construidos Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture 8
Utility and communication network outage Sistemas construidos Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure 6
Transport accidents Sistemas construidos Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash 5
Industrial and process accidents Sistemas construidos Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … 15
Energy system instability and shortfall Sistemas construidos Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … 22
Water and wastewater system failure Sistemas construidos Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … 9
Telecom and data-centre failure Sistemas construidos Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss 8
Space-based service loss Sistemas construidos Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure 4
Seabed infrastructure damage Sistemas construidos Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage 3
Transport network disruption Sistemas construidos Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … 12
Food system infrastructure failure Sistemas construidos Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production 5
Urban and building-stock stress Sistemas construidos Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure 6
Ageing and degraded infrastructure Sistemas construidos Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage 7
06Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Ciber, IA y tecnologías de frontera

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

08Informes

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-04
Edition status
prevista
Asunto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Citar

Citar y reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud series (GRX-SER-XT-04), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-04/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000091.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-04:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.