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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-04 · Exponential technology series

Komputasi berdaulat, HPC, dan cloud

Ketergantungan dan konsentrasi komputasi, risiko cloud dan residensi data, pasokan akselerator, dan komputasi aman.

Page GRX-SER-XT-04Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-04 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indeks domain

1

Risiko konsentrasi teknologi

Indikator

57

3 index domains

Hazard families

35

Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems · Built systems.

Metode

56

Siber, AI, dan teknologi mutakhir

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
indeks ranah
57
indicators in scope
3
ranah bahaya
3
client groups

01Lingkup

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. How concentrated is national compute dependency?
  2. Where would a cloud outage stop public services?
  3. Who controls the accelerators risk science relies on?
02Konstruksi

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafik
01Indeks domain
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Indeks
  1. Risiko konsentrasi teknologi

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-04
    Ketergantungan dan konsentrasi komputasi, risiko cloud dan residensi data, pasokan akselerator, dan komputasi aman.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Belum dijalankanSedang berjalanSelesai
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indeks

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-04 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud index, world
–
Nilai terbit bersama edisi; interval, kelas, dan perubahan muncul di sini.
Indeks Nilai Perubahan Perubahan % Interval 90% Kelas · probabilitas Tren Rentang
Risiko konsentrasi teknologiNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Energy.

04Indikator

57 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indikator Domain Sub-domain Komponen Unit Tingkat Crosswalks
Impor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritisIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Total emisi gas rumah kaca tanpa LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions keterpaparan Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Intensitas karbon PDBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions keterpaparan kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Subsidi eksplisit bahan bakar fosil, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure keterpaparan % COUNTRY
Tingkat cekaman airIND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT Tekanan air hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
Jaringan tegangan tinggi di zona bahaya geolistrik tinggi, porsiIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence keterpaparan % COUNTRY, ADM1
Penduduk dengan akses listrikIND.ENE.access.electricity_access ENE Akses vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
Penduduk yang terutama mengandalkan bahan bakar dan teknologi memasak bersihIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE Akses vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Konsumsi listrik per kapitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc ENE Akses context kW.h/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Porsi energi terbarukan dalam total konsumsi energi finalIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Intensitas energi primer PDBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Konsentrasi bauran pembangkitan listrikIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration ENE Energy mix vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Porsi fosil dalam pembangkitan listrikIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Kapasitas pembangkit terbarukan terpasang per kapitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix kapasitas adaptif W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
Pembangkitan listrik yang bergantung pada air, porsiIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1
Ketergantungan impor energi netoIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports ENE Supply security and import dependence keterpaparan % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Tagihan impor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap ekspor barang dan jasaIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Konsentrasi pemasok impor minyak mentah dan produknyaIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pemasok impor gas alamIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pemasok impor batu baraIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Stok minyak dalam hari impor netoIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks ENE Supply security and import dependence kapasitas penanggulangan d COUNTRY
Pemadaman listrik yang dialami perusahaan dalam sebulan biasaIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Nilai yang hilang akibat pemadaman listrik, porsi terhadap penjualan perusahaanIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss ENE Reliability impact % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
Durasi rata-rata gangguan sistem (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Frekuensi rata-rata gangguan sistem (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Susut transmisi dan distribusi tenaga listrikIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses ENE Reliability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Derajat hari pemanasan dan pendinginanIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Konsentrasi pemasok impor mineral kritisIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Mineral kritis vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Porsi pemasok tunggal terbesar dalam impor mineral kritisIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Mineral kritis vulnerability % COUNTRY
Individu yang menggunakan internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundansi rute konektivitas internasionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity kapasitas penanggulangan 1 COUNTRY
Jam gangguan internet berskala nasionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Ketahanan jaringan listrikIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Aset pembangkit dan jaringan listrik di zona bahaya tinggi, porsiIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities keterpaparan % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Skor ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Tingkatan ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar langkah hukum ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar langkah teknis ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar langkah organisasi ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar langkah pengembangan kapasitas ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability kapasitas adaptif {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar langkah kerja sama ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Tim tanggap insiden komputer nasional yang beroperasiIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Undang-undang pelindungan data dan privasi yang berlakuIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Insiden siber signifikan per juta pendudukIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Insiden siber yang mengganggu layanan kritisIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Nilai tambah layanan TIK, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence keterpaparan % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Perkembangan e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence keterpaparan {score} COUNTRY
Belanja domestik bruto untuk litbang, porsi terhadap PDBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Peneliti per juta pendudukIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Ekspor teknologi tinggi, porsi terhadap ekspor manufakturIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Konsentrasi pemasok impor semikonduktorIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi penyedia infrastruktur cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Kapasitas komputasi AI di bawah kendali asing atau penyedia tunggalIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Kecerdasan buatan vulnerability % COUNTRY
Konsentrasi penyedia model fondasiIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Kecerdasan buatan vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pengawasan biosafety dan biosekuriti laboratorium penahanan tinggiIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Bioteknologi kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY
05Bahaya

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Standar bahayaInformasiGaris depan267HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 35 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Keluarga Domain Bahaya Jumlah
AI system failure and misalignment Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Bioteknologi dan biologi sintetis Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Teknologi intervensi iklim Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Buku besar terdistribusi dan aset digital Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Malicious compromise Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
Structural and civil failure Sistem terbangun Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture 8
Utility and communication network outage Sistem terbangun Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure 6
Transport accidents Sistem terbangun Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash 5
Industrial and process accidents Sistem terbangun Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … 15
Energy system instability and shortfall Sistem terbangun Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … 22
Water and wastewater system failure Sistem terbangun Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … 9
Telecom and data-centre failure Sistem terbangun Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss 8
Space-based service loss Sistem terbangun Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure 4
Seabed infrastructure damage Sistem terbangun Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage 3
Transport network disruption Sistem terbangun Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … 12
Food system infrastructure failure Sistem terbangun Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production 5
Urban and building-stock stress Sistem terbangun Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure 6
Ageing and degraded infrastructure Sistem terbangun Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage 7
06Metode

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Siber, AI, dan teknologi mutakhir

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

08Laporan

Edisi Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-04
Edition status
direncanakan
Subjek
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Edisi Nexus Reports

09Kutip

Kutip dan gunakan kembali

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Sovereign compute, HPC and cloud series (GRX-SER-XT-04), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-04/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000091.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-04:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.