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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-13 · Strategic systems series

戦略技術

戦略技術の集中と支配、輸出管理、技術依存。

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-SR-13Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports SR-13 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
分野別指数

1

技術集中リスク

指標

61

3 index domains

Hazard families

30

Frontier and exponential technology · Society, conflict and economy.

手法

86

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Markets, trade and supply chains.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
分野別指数
61
indicators in scope
2
ハザードの分野
3
client groups

01対象範囲

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Which strategic technologies are concentrated in few places?
  2. How exposed are economies to export controls?
  3. Where does dependency become vulnerability?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Strategic technology index is built

Graph5 nodes
グラフ
01分野別指数
02Series index
03Readings

100%
索引
  1. 技術集中リスク

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Strategic technology index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-13
    戦略技術の集中と支配、輸出管理、技術依存。
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未実行進行中完了
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03指数

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-13 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Strategic technology index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
インデックス 値 変化 変化 % 90% 区間 区分 · 確率 傾向 幅
技術集中リスクNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Cyber and digital.

04指標

61 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指標 分野 Sub-domain 構成要素 単位 レベル Crosswalks
財・サービスの輸出（名目、米ドル）IND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
交易条件の変動性（10 年）IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
天然資源収入（一般政府歳入に占める割合）IND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
貿易開放度（輸出と輸入の合計、GDP 比）IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO 貿易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
国際観光収入（輸出に占める割合）IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO 貿易 vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
個人送金受取額（GDP 比）IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO 貿易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
政府開発援助の純受取額（GNI 比）IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO 貿易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
輸出品目の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
輸出市場の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
一次産品輸出への依存度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
工業製品（商品輸出に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
天然資源レント（GDP 比）IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
経済複雑性指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
食料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
燃料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
重要鉱物の純輸入依存度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
輸入元の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
総輸出に占める海外付加価値の割合IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
中間財輸入の供給元集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
海上交通の要衝にさらされる海上貿易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
海外直接投資の純流入（GDP 比）IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO 投資 coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
燃料輸出（商品輸出に占める割合）IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
自然への依存度が高いセクターの GDP（割合）IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
水利用効率IND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT 水ストレス adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
GNSS に依存する活動の GDP（割合）IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
穀物輸入依存率IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
食料輸入額（商品輸出比）IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
農林水産業の付加価値（GDP 比）IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
ビジネス環境スコア（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
原油・石油製品の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
天然ガスの輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
石炭の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
重要鉱物輸入に占める最大供給元の割合IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
物流パフォーマンスIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
最前線に対する定期船輸送の接続性IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
インターネット利用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
国際接続経路の冗長性IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
全国規模のインターネット障害の時間数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
インフラ投資ギャップ（GDP 比）IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
ITU グローバル・サイバーセキュリティ指数スコアIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
ITU グローバル・サイバーセキュリティ指数の階層IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI 法的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI 技術的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI 組織的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI 能力開発措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI 協力措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
国のコンピュータ・インシデント対応チームの運用IND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
データ保護・プライバシー法の施行IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
人口 100 万人あたりの重大なサイバー・インシデントIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
重要サービスを途絶させるサイバー・インシデントIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT サービスの付加価値（GDP 比）IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
電子政府の発展度IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
研究開発費総額（GDP 比）IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
人口 100 万人あたり研究者数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
ハイテク輸出（工業製品輸出に占める割合）IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
半導体の輸入供給元集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
クラウド・インフラ提供者の集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
外国または単一提供者の管理下にある AI 計算能力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
基盤モデル提供者の集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
高度封じ込め実験施設のバイオセーフティとバイオセキュリティの監督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC バイオテクノロジー coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05ハザード

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
フロンティア社会239HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 30 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
ファミリー 分野 ハザード Count
AI system failure and misalignment フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
バイオテクノロジーと合成生物学 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
気候介入技術 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Organised and collective violence 社会、紛争、経済 Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm 社会、紛争、経済 Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises 社会、紛争、経済 Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour 社会、紛争、経済 Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure 社会、紛争、経済 Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons 社会、紛争、経済 Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure 社会、紛争、経済 Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility 社会、紛争、経済 Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks 社会、紛争、経済 Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition 社会、紛争、経済 Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement 社会、紛争、経済 Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk 社会、紛争、経済 Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies 社会、紛争、経済 Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss 社会、紛争、経済 Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06手法

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

サイバー、AI、フロンティア技術

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

30 methods

市場、貿易、サプライチェーン

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

08レポート

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-13
Edition status
予定
対象
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09引用

引用と再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Strategic technology series (GRX-SER-SR-13), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-13/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000086.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-13:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

国別プロファイル すべてのシリーズ

ステータス

The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。

NXS-GRX ではないもの

NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。

機関と情報源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.