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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-13 · Strategic systems series

Teknologi strategis

Konsentrasi dan kendali teknologi strategis, kontrol ekspor, dan ketergantungan teknologi.

Page GRX-SER-SR-13Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports SR-13 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indeks domain

1

Risiko konsentrasi teknologi

Indikator

61

3 index domains

Hazard families

30

Frontier and exponential technology · Society, conflict and economy.

Metode

86

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Markets, trade and supply chains.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
indeks ranah
61
indicators in scope
2
ranah bahaya
3
client groups

01Lingkup

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Which strategic technologies are concentrated in few places?
  2. How exposed are economies to export controls?
  3. Where does dependency become vulnerability?
02Konstruksi

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Strategic technology index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafik
01Indeks domain
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Indeks
  1. Risiko konsentrasi teknologi

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Strategic technology index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-13
    Konsentrasi dan kendali teknologi strategis, kontrol ekspor, dan ketergantungan teknologi.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Belum dijalankanSedang berjalanSelesai
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indeks

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-13 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Strategic technology index, world
–
Nilai terbit bersama edisi; interval, kelas, dan perubahan muncul di sini.
Indeks Nilai Perubahan Perubahan % Interval 90% Kelas · probabilitas Tren Rentang
Risiko konsentrasi teknologiNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Cyber and digital.

04Indikator

61 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indikator Domain Sub-domain Komponen Unit Tingkat Crosswalks
Ekspor barang dan jasa, dolar AS berlakuIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Volatilitas nilai tukar perdagangan (10 tahun)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pendapatan sumber daya alam, porsi terhadap pendapatan pemerintah umumIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Keterbukaan perdagangan (ekspor ditambah impor, porsi terhadap PDB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Perdagangan keterpaparan % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Penerimaan pariwisata internasional, porsi terhadap eksporIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Perdagangan vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Remitansi perorangan yang diterima, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Perdagangan keterpaparan % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Bantuan pembangunan resmi neto yang diterima, porsi terhadap PNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Perdagangan keterpaparan % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Konsentrasi produk ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pasar ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditasIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Barang manufaktur, porsi terhadap ekspor barangIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rente sumber daya alam, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Indeks kompleksitas ekonomiIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration kapasitas adaptif {score} COUNTRY
Impor pangan, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Impor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritisIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Konsentrasi asal impor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Porsi nilai tambah asing dalam ekspor brutoIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure keterpaparan % COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pemasok impor barang setengah jadiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Perdagangan laut yang terpapar titik sempit maritimIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure keterpaparan % COUNTRY
Arus masuk neto investasi asing langsung, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Investasi kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Ekspor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap ekspor barangIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure keterpaparan % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
PDB di sektor yang sangat bergantung pada alam, porsiIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence keterpaparan % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Efisiensi penggunaan airIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Tekanan air kapasitas adaptif [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
PDB dalam kegiatan yang bergantung pada GNSS, porsiIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence keterpaparan % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Rasio ketergantungan impor serealiaIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Tagihan impor pangan, porsi terhadap ekspor barangIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Nilai tambah pertanian, kehutanan, dan perikanan, porsi terhadap PDBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Skor lingkungan usaha (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pemasok impor minyak mentah dan produknyaIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pemasok impor gas alamIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pemasok impor batu baraIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pemasok impor mineral kritisIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Mineral kritis vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Porsi pemasok tunggal terbesar dalam impor mineral kritisIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Mineral kritis vulnerability % COUNTRY
Kinerja logistikIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transportasi kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Konektivitas pelayaran reguler relatif terhadap batas terbaikIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transportasi kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Individu yang menggunakan internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundansi rute konektivitas internasionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity kapasitas penanggulangan 1 COUNTRY
Jam gangguan internet berskala nasionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Kesenjangan investasi infrastruktur, porsi terhadap PDBIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Skor ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Tingkatan ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar langkah hukum ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar langkah teknis ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar langkah organisasi ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar langkah pengembangan kapasitas ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability kapasitas adaptif {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar langkah kerja sama ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Tim tanggap insiden komputer nasional yang beroperasiIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Undang-undang pelindungan data dan privasi yang berlakuIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Insiden siber signifikan per juta pendudukIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Insiden siber yang mengganggu layanan kritisIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Nilai tambah layanan TIK, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence keterpaparan % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Perkembangan e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence keterpaparan {score} COUNTRY
Belanja domestik bruto untuk litbang, porsi terhadap PDBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Peneliti per juta pendudukIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Ekspor teknologi tinggi, porsi terhadap ekspor manufakturIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Konsentrasi pemasok impor semikonduktorIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi penyedia infrastruktur cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Kapasitas komputasi AI di bawah kendali asing atau penyedia tunggalIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Kecerdasan buatan vulnerability % COUNTRY
Konsentrasi penyedia model fondasiIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Kecerdasan buatan vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pengawasan biosafety dan biosekuriti laboratorium penahanan tinggiIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Bioteknologi kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY
05Bahaya

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Garis depanMasyarakat239HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 30 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Keluarga Domain Bahaya Jumlah
AI system failure and misalignment Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Bioteknologi dan biologi sintetis Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Teknologi intervensi iklim Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Buku besar terdistribusi dan aset digital Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Organised and collective violence Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Masyarakat, konflik, dan ekonomi Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Metode

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Siber, AI, dan teknologi mutakhir

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

30 methods

Pasar, perdagangan, dan rantai pasok

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

08Laporan

Edisi Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-13
Edition status
direncanakan
Subjek
Named by Nexus Reports

Edisi Nexus Reports

09Kutip

Kutip dan gunakan kembali

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Strategic technology series (GRX-SER-SR-13), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-13/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000086.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-13:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.