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Der Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-13 · Strategic systems series

Strategische Technologie

Konzentration und Kontrolle strategischer Technologien, Exportkontrollen und technologische Abhängigkeit.

Page GRX-SER-SR-13Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports SR-13 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domänenindizes

1

Risiko technologischer Konzentration

Indikatoren

61

3 index domains

Hazard families

30

Frontier and exponential technology · Society, conflict and economy.

Methoden

86

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Markets, trade and supply chains.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
Bereichsindizes
61
indicators in scope
2
Gefahrenbereiche
3
client groups

01Geltungsbereich

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Which strategic technologies are concentrated in few places?
  2. How exposed are economies to export controls?
  3. Where does dependency become vulnerability?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Strategic technology index is built

Graph5 nodes
Graph
01Domänenindizes
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Verzeichnis
  1. Risiko technologischer Konzentration

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Strategic technology index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-13
    Konzentration und Kontrolle strategischer Technologien, Exportkontrollen und technologische Abhängigkeit.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Nicht ausgeführtIn BearbeitungErledigt
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indizes

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-13 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Strategic technology index, world
–
Werte erscheinen mit der Ausgabe; Intervall, Klasse und Veränderung werden hier angezeigt.
Index Wert Veränderung Veränderung % 90%-Intervall Klasse · Wahrscheinlichkeit Trend Spanne
Risiko technologischer KonzentrationNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Cyber and digital.

04Indikatoren

61 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indikator Domäne Sub-domain Komponente Einheit Ebenen Crosswalks
Exporte von Waren und Dienstleistungen, in laufenden US-DollarIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Volatilität der Terms of Trade (10 Jahre)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Einnahmen aus natürlichen Ressourcen, Anteil an den Einnahmen des GesamtstaatsIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Handelsoffenheit (Exporte plus Importe, Anteil am BIP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Handel exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Einnahmen aus internationalem Tourismus, Anteil an den ExportenIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Handel vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Erhaltene private Rücküberweisungen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Handel exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Erhaltene öffentliche Netto-Entwicklungshilfe, Anteil am BNEIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Handel exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Konzentration der Exportprodukte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konzentration der Exportmärkte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Abhängigkeit von RohstoffexportenIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Industrieerzeugnisse, Anteil an den WarenexportenIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Renten aus natürlichen Ressourcen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Index der wirtschaftlichen KomplexitätIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Brennstoffimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Nettoimportabhängigkeit bei kritischen MineralienIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Konzentration der Importherkunft (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Ausländischer Wertschöpfungsanteil an den BruttoexportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Lieferantenkonzentration bei VorleistungsimportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Seehandel mit Exposition gegenüber maritimen EngpässenIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Nettozuflüsse ausländischer Direktinvestitionen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Anlage coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Brennstoffexporte, Anteil an den WarenexportenIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
BIP in stark naturabhängigen Sektoren, AnteilIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Effizienz der WassernutzungIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Wasserstress adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
BIP in GNSS-abhängigen Tätigkeiten, AnteilIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
GetreideimportabhängigkeitsquoteIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Kosten der Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenexportenIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Wertschöpfung von Land- und Forstwirtschaft und Fischerei, Anteil am BIPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Wert des Geschäftsumfelds (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Lieferantenkonzentration bei Importen von Rohöl und ÖlproduktenIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Lieferantenkonzentration bei ErdgasimportenIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Lieferantenkonzentration bei KohleimportenIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Lieferantenkonzentration bei Importen kritischer MineralienIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Anteil des größten Einzellieferanten an den Importen kritischer MineralienIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
LogistikleistungIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Linienschifffahrtsanbindung im Verhältnis zur BestmarkeIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Personen, die das Internet nutzenIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundanz internationaler VerbindungswegeIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Stunden landesweiter InternetstörungenIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Infrastruktur-Investitionslücke, Anteil am BIPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Wert im ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Stufe im ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI, Säule rechtliche MaßnahmenIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI, Säule technische MaßnahmenIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI, Säule organisatorische MaßnahmenIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI, Säule Maßnahmen zum KapazitätsaufbauIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI, Säule KooperationsmaßnahmenIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Nationales Computer-Notfallteam in BetriebIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Datenschutzgesetzgebung in KraftIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Erhebliche Cybervorfälle je Million EinwohnerIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Cybervorfälle mit Störung kritischer DiensteIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Wertschöpfung von IKT-Dienstleistungen, Anteil am BIPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Entwicklung des E-GovernmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Bruttoinlandsausgaben für F&E, Anteil am BIPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Forschende je Million EinwohnerIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Hochtechnologieexporte, Anteil an den Exporten von IndustrieerzeugnissenIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Lieferantenkonzentration bei HalbleiterimportenIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Anbieterkonzentration bei Cloud-InfrastrukturIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
KI-Rechenkapazität unter ausländischer Kontrolle oder Kontrolle eines einzelnen AnbietersIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Künstliche Intelligenz vulnerability % COUNTRY
Anbieterkonzentration bei BasismodellenIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Künstliche Intelligenz vulnerability % COUNTRY
Aufsicht über biologische Sicherheit und Biosicherheit von HochsicherheitslaborenIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnologie coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Gefahren

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
FrontierGesellschaft239HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 30 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Familie Domäne Gefahren Count
AI system failure and misalignment Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnologie und synthetische Biologie Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Technologien zur Klimaintervention Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Organised and collective violence Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaft Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Methoden

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Cyber, KI und Frontier-Technologien

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

30 methods

Märkte, Handel und Lieferketten

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

08Berichte

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-13
Edition status
geplant
Gegenstand
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09Zitieren

Zitieren und weiterverwenden

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Strategic technology series (GRX-SER-SR-13), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-13/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000086.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-13:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.