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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-13 · Strategic systems series

Teknolojiya stratejîk

Concentration and control of strategic technologies, export controls and technological dependency.

Page GRX-SER-SR-13Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports SR-13 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Îndeksên waran

1

Technology concentration risk

Nîşander

61

3 index domains

Hazard families

30

Frontier and exponential technology · Society, conflict and economy.

Rêbaz

86

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Markets, trade and supply chains.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
domain indices
61
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
3
client groups

01Çarçove

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Which strategic technologies are concentrated in few places?
  2. How exposed are economies to export controls?
  3. Where does dependency become vulnerability?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Strategic technology index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafîk
01Îndeksên waran
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Lîste
  1. Technology concentration risk

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Strategic technology index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-13
    Concentration and control of strategic technologies, export controls and technological dependency.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runDi pêvajoyê deQediya
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Îndeks

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-13 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Strategic technology index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Navnîşan Nirx Guhertin Guhertin % 90% interval Class · probability Meyl Navber
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Cyber and digital.

04Nîşander

61 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Nîşander Qad Sub-domain Component Yekîne Ast Crosswalks
Hinardekirina mal û xizmetan, dolarên DYA yên heyîIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Guhêrbariya mercên bazirganiyê (10 salî)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Dahata çavkaniyên xwezayî, para dahata hikûmeta giştîIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Vekirîbûna bazirganiyê (hinardekirin û îthalat, para GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Bazirganî exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Dahatên tûrîzma navneteweyî, para hinardekirinêIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Bazirganî vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Bazirganî exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Alîkariya fermî ya net a pêşketinê ya wergirtî, para GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Bazirganî exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Komkirina berhemên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina bazarên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Girêdayîbûna bi hinardekirina kelûmelên xavIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Berhemên çêkirî, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Kirêyên çavkaniyên xwezayî, para GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Îndeksa tevlîheviya aborîIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
Îthalata xwarinê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Îthalata sotemeniyê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîngIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Komkirina eslê îthalatê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Para nirxa zêdekirî ya biyanî di hinardekirina gelemperî deIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkeran di îthalata kelûmelên navîn deIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Hatina net a veberhênana biyanî ya rasterast, para GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Veberhênan coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Hinardekirina sotemeniyê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
GDP ya di sektorên pir girêdayî xwezayê de, paraIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Kêrhatîbûna bikaranîna avêIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Water stress adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
GDP ya di çalakiyên girêdayî GNSS de, paraIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Rêjeya girêdayîbûna bi îthalata dexlêIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Fatûreya îthalata xwarinê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Nirxa zêdekirî ya çandinî, daristanî û masîgiriyê, para GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Puana jîngeha karsaziyê (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata petrola xav û berhemên wêIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata gaza xwezayîIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata komirêIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata mîneralên girîngIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Para dabînkerê herî mezin ê yekane di îthalata mîneralên girîng deIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Performansa lojîstîkêIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Girêdana keştiyên xetê li gorî asta herî pêşketîIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Kesên ku Înternetê bi kar tîninIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Zêdeyiya rêyên girêdana navneteweyîIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Saetên qutbûna înternetê ya li asta neteweyîIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Valahiya veberhênana binesaziyê, para GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Puana ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Asta ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Stûna tedbîrên qanûnî ya ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Stûna tedbîrên teknîkî ya ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Stûna tedbîrên rêxistinî ya ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Stûna tedbîrên pêşxistina kapasîteyê ya ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Stûna tedbîrên hevkariyê ya ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Tîma neteweyî ya bersivdana bûyerên kompîturê di xebatê deIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Qanûnên parastina daneyan û nepeniyê di meriyetê deIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Bûyerên sîber ên girîng ji her milyon kesîIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Bûyerên sîber ên ku xizmetên girîng asteng dikinIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Nirxa zêdekirî ya xizmetên ICT, para GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Pêşketina hikûmeta elektronîkIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Lêçûnên navxweyî yên gelemperî li ser R&D, para GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Lêkoler ji her milyon niştecîhîIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Hinardekirina teknolojiya bilind, para hinardekirina berhemên çêkirîIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata nîvguheykeranIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina pêşkêşkerên binesaziya ewrIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Kapasîteya hesabkirina AI ya di bin kontrola biyanî an yek pêşkêşkerî deIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Zîrekiya çêkirî vulnerability % COUNTRY
Komkirina pêşkêşkerên modelên bingehînIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Zîrekiya çêkirî vulnerability % COUNTRY
Çavdêriya ewlehiya bîyolojîk û parastina bîyolojîk a laboratuwarên astengiya bilindIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Metirsî

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
PêşengCivak239HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 30 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Malbat Qad Metirsî Count
AI system failure and misalignment Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Teknolojiyên destwerdana avhewayê Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Organised and collective violence Civak, nakokî û aborî Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Civak, nakokî û aborî Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Civak, nakokî û aborî Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Civak, nakokî û aborî Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Civak, nakokî û aborî Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Civak, nakokî û aborî Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Civak, nakokî û aborî Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Civak, nakokî û aborî Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Civak, nakokî û aborî Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Civak, nakokî û aborî Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Civak, nakokî û aborî Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Civak, nakokî û aborî Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Civak, nakokî û aborî Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Civak, nakokî û aborî Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Rêbaz

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Sîber, AI û teknolojiya pêşeng

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

30 methods

Bazar, bazirganî û zincîreyên peydakirinê

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

08Rapor

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-13
Edition status
plankirî
Mijar
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09Jêgirtin

Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Strategic technology series (GRX-SER-SR-13), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-13/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000086.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-13:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.