战略技术
战略技术的集中与控制、出口管制和技术依赖。
1
技术集中风险
61
3 index domains
30
Frontier and exponential technology · Society, conflict and economy.
86
Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Markets, trade and supply chains.
Scope and questions
The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.
- Which strategic technologies are concentrated in few places?
- How exposed are economies to export controls?
- Where does dependency become vulnerability?
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
How the Strategic technology index is built
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技术集中风险Domain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
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Strategic technology indexSeries index · SERIES · SR-13战略技术的集中与控制、出口管制和技术依赖。
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Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Domain indices in this series
| 指数 | 数值 | 变化 | 变化 % | 90% 区间 | 类别 · 概率 | 趋势 | 范围 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
技术集中风险NXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Cyber and digital.
61 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
货物和服务出口,现价美元IND.MAC.external.exports.usd |
MAC | External balance and reserves | context | [USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD |
贸易条件波动性(10 年)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility |
MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
自然资源收入,占广义政府收入比重IND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share |
FIS | Revenue | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
贸易开放度(进出口总额,占 GDP 比重)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp |
ECO | 贸易 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
国际旅游收入,占出口比重IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports |
ECO | 贸易 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
收到的个人汇款,占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp |
ECO | 贸易 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
收到的官方发展援助净额,占 GNI 比重IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni |
ECO | 贸易 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
出口产品集中度(标准化 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
出口市场集中度(标准化 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
大宗商品出口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
制成品,占商品出口比重IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
自然资源租金,占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
经济复杂度指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity |
ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
食品进口,占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
燃料进口,占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
进口来源集中度(标准化 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
总出口中的国外增加值占比IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
中间品进口供应方集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
外国直接投资净流入,占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp |
ECO | 投资 | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
燃料出口,占商品出口比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
高度依赖自然的行业 GDP 占比IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share |
ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | |
用水效率IND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency |
WAT | 水资源压力 | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
依赖 GNSS 的活动所产生的 GDP 占比IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
谷物进口依赖率IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
食品进口支出,占商品出口比重IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports |
FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
农林渔业增加值,占 GDP 比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
营商环境得分(B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
原油及成品油进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
天然气进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
煤炭进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
物流绩效IND.INF.transport.logistics_performance |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
班轮运输连通性(相对前沿水平)IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
互联网使用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
国际连接路由冗余度IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
全国范围互联网中断小时数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
基础设施投资缺口,占 GDP 比重IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp |
INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
ITU 全球网络安全指数得分IND.CYB.capability.gci_score |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
ITU 全球网络安全指数等级IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier |
CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
ITU GCI 法律措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
ITU GCI 技术措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
ITU GCI 组织措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
ITU GCI 能力建设措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development |
CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
ITU GCI 合作措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
国家计算机事件响应团队已运作IND.CYB.capability.national_cert |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
数据保护和隐私立法已生效IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
每百万人重大网络事件数IND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate |
CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a |
COUNTRY | |
扰乱关键服务的网络事件IND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
ICT 服务增加值,占 GDP 比重IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
电子政务发展IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
研发总支出,占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
高技术出口,占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | 生物技术 | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY |
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
| 类别 | 领域 | 危害 | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | 前沿与指数型技术 | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | 前沿与指数型技术 | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | 前沿与指数型技术 | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| 生物技术与合成生物学 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | 前沿与指数型技术 | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | 前沿与指数型技术 | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| 气候干预技术 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | 前沿与指数型技术 | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | 前沿与指数型技术 | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | 前沿与指数型技术 | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | 前沿与指数型技术 | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Organised and collective violence | 社会、冲突与经济 | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | 社会、冲突与经济 | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | 社会、冲突与经济 | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | 社会、冲突与经济 | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | 社会、冲突与经济 | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | 社会、冲突与经济 | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | 社会、冲突与经济 | Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | 社会、冲突与经济 | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | 社会、冲突与经济 | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | 社会、冲突与经济 | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | 社会、冲突与经济 | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | 社会、冲突与经济 | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | 社会、冲突与经济 | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | 社会、冲突与经济 | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
网络、人工智能与前沿技术
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
市场、贸易与供应链
Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.
Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors
Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.
引用与再利用
- Series key
grix:SER.SR-13:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案(2026),供审阅和评论,不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前,不会出现任何数值;届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法,绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级,不使用任何评级尺度;它不是金融工具的基准,不是官方统计,不是紧急警报或官方分类,也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间,绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.