Index physischer Klimagefahren
0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
geometric
equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
3 components
16 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.
- Oberflächenerwärmung seit vorindustrieller ZeitIndicator · IND · KDifference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
- Veränderung des JahresniederschlagsIndicator · IND · %Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
- Rate des relativen MeeresspiegelanstiegsIndicator · IND · mm/aLinear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
- Heißester Tag des Jahres (TXx)Indicator · IND · CelHighest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
- Anteil warmer Tage (TX90p)Indicator · IND · %Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
- Veränderung der sehr heißen Tage (35 °C oder mehr)Indicator · IND · d/aChange in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
- Dauer von Wärmeperioden (WSDI)Indicator · IND · d/aAnnual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
- Niederschlagsreichster Tag des Jahres (Rx1day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
- Niederschlagsreichste fünf Tage des Jahres (Rx5day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
- Niederschlag an sehr nassen Tagen (R95pTOT)Indicator · IND · %Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
- Längste Trockenperiode (CDD)Indicator · IND · dMaximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
- Projizierte Erwärmung seit vorindustrieller ZeitIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Projizierte Veränderung der Temperatur des heißesten TagesIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Projizierte Veränderung des Niederschlags der fünf niederschlagsreichsten TageIndicator · IND · %Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Projizierter relativer MeeresspiegelanstiegIndicator · IND · mMedian projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Bevölkerung unterhalb des künftigen 100-jährlichen Küstenhochwasserniveaus, AnteilIndicator · IND · %Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Chronic climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
- Climate extremes sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
- Projected climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
- Index physischer KlimagefahrenDomain index · IDX · geometric0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
- Gefährdungs- und BedrohungsexpositionPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- min–max rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- equal
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Unsicherheit
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
3 components, 16 indicators
Chronic climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Oberflächenerwärmung seit vorindustrieller ZeitIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | K | Class C | berkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change | 33.3% |
Veränderung des JahresniederschlagsIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | % | Class C | gpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era5 | 33.3% |
Rate des relativen MeeresspiegelanstiegsIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | mm/a | Class B | psmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change | 33.3% |
Climate extremes sub-index w 1
Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Heißester Tag des Jahres (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | Cel | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services | 12.5% |
Anteil warmer Tage (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Veränderung der sehr heißen Tage (35 °C oder mehr)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | d/a | Class C | copernicus-era5, hadex3 | 12.5% |
Dauer von Wärmeperioden (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | d/a | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Niederschlagsreichster Tag des Jahres (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Niederschlagsreichste fünf Tage des Jahres (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Niederschlag an sehr nassen Tagen (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Längste Trockenperiode (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | d | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Projected climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Projizierte Erwärmung seit vorindustrieller ZeitIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp | 20.0% |
Projizierte Veränderung der Temperatur des heißesten TagesIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
Projizierte Veränderung des Niederschlags der fünf niederschlagsreichsten TageIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | % | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
Projizierter relativer MeeresspiegelanstiegIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | m | Class C | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool | 20.0% |
Bevölkerung unterhalb des künftigen 100-jährlichen Küstenhochwasserniveaus, AnteilIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | % | Class D | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop | 20.0% |
Klima
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.
| Sub-domain | Indikatoren |
|---|---|
| Chronic physical change | 3 |
| Acute climate extremes | 9 |
| Emissions | 4 |
| Transition exposure | 5 |
| Adaptation readiness | 5 |
| Scenario projections | 5 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.
All 31 climate indicators
| Indikator | Domäne | Sub-domain | Komponente | Einheit | Ebenen | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oberflächenerwärmung seit vorindustrieller ZeitIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
Veränderung des JahresniederschlagsIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Rate des relativen MeeresspiegelanstiegsIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
Heißester Tag des Jahres (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Anteil warmer Tage (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Veränderung der sehr heißen Tage (35 °C oder mehr)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Dauer von Wärmeperioden (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Niederschlagsreichster Tag des Jahres (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Niederschlagsreichste fünf Tage des Jahres (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Niederschlag an sehr nassen Tagen (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Längste Trockenperiode (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
Projizierte Erwärmung seit vorindustrieller ZeitIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Projizierte Veränderung der Temperatur des heißesten TagesIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Projizierte Veränderung des Niederschlags der fünf niederschlagsreichsten TageIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Projizierter relativer MeeresspiegelanstiegIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
Bevölkerung unterhalb des künftigen 100-jährlichen Küstenhochwasserniveaus, AnteilIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
Gesamte Treibhausgasemissionen ohne LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
Treibhausgasemissionen pro KopfIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita | CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
CO2-Intensität des BIPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
Renten aus fossilen Brennstoffen, Anteil am BIPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
Brennstoffexporte, Anteil an den WarenexportenIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Explizite Subventionen für fossile Brennstoffe, Anteil am BIPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
Gesamtwirtschaftliches NDC-Emissionsziel 2030IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition | CLI | Transition exposure | response | % | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Nationaler Anpassungsplan eingereichtIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Wirtschaftliche Bereitschaft für AnpassungsinvestitionenIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Governance-Bereitschaft für AnpassungIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Gesellschaftliche Bereitschaft für AnpassungIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
Erhaltene internationale Anpassungsfinanzierung pro KopfIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] | COUNTRY |
Climate physical hazard index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Vorherige Ausgabe
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Gekoppeltes Gesamtmaß
- –
- Kopplungswert S
- –
- Pulse, letzte Woche
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Methode
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Ziehungen
- 1,000
Noch keine veröffentlichten Werte. Die erste Ausgabe zeichnet hier den Verlauf mit Intervallband und Klassengrenzen.
Country values
- Kacheln
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Beobachtungsschlüssel
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
FAO_FAOSTAT | 1 |
UNDRR_HIPS_2025 | 1 |
WB_WDI | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Zitieren und weiterverwenden
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
Methodik, Struktur und Definitionen des Global Risks Index sind ein vorbereitender Arbeitsentwurf (2026), der zur Prüfung und Stellungnahme und nicht zur Umsetzung verbreitet wird. Kein Wert erscheint, bevor eine Ausgabe aus einem geregelten Evidenzschnitt veröffentlicht ist; die Werte tragen dann Intervalle, Klassen, Quellen und ihren Korrekturweg. Die Simulatoren wenden die veröffentlichten Methoden auf Zahlen an, die Sie wählen, und zeigen niemals einen NXS-GRX-Wert.
Was NXS-GRX nicht ist
NXS-GRX ist eine Forschungs- und Risikoanalyseinformation. Es ist kein Kredit- oder ESG-Rating und verwendet keine Ratingskala, kein Referenzwert für Finanzinstrumente, keine amtliche Statistik, keine Notfallwarnung oder amtliche Einstufung und keine Beratung. Es darf nicht zur Bewertung natürlicher Personen verwendet werden. Risikoklassen sind Bänder auf einer veröffentlichten Skala, niemals Rangfolgen von Ländern oder Personen.
Institutionen und Quellen
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.