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Der Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Index des Risikos externer Abhängigkeit

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Unsicherheit

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Struktur

5 components

22 leaf indicators

Abdeckung

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
Graph
01Indikatoren
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Säule
05Zusammengesetzt
100%
Verzeichnis
  1. Handelsoffenheit (Exporte plus Importe, Anteil am BIP)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Einnahmen aus internationalem Tourismus, Anteil an den Exporten
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. Erhaltene private Rücküberweisungen, Anteil am BIP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Erhaltene öffentliche Netto-Entwicklungshilfe, Anteil am BNE
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. Nettozuflüsse ausländischer Direktinvestitionen, Anteil am BIP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. Konzentration der Exportprodukte (normalisierter HHI)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. Konzentration der Exportmärkte (normalisierter HHI)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Abhängigkeit von Rohstoffexporten
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. Renten aus natürlichen Ressourcen, Anteil am BIP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. Volatilität der Terms of Trade (10 Jahre)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. Index der wirtschaftlichen Komplexität
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den Warenimporten
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. Brennstoffimporte, Anteil an den Warenimporten
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. Nettoimportabhängigkeit bei kritischen Mineralien
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. Konzentration der Importherkunft (normalisierter HHI)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. Ausländischer Wertschöpfungsanteil an den Bruttoexporten
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. Lieferantenkonzentration bei Vorleistungsimporten
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. Seehandel mit Exposition gegenüber maritimen Engpässen
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. Leistungsbilanzsaldo, Anteil am BIP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. Reserven in Importmonaten
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. Kurzfristige Auslandsschulden, Anteil an den Reserven
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. Auslandsschuldenstand, Anteil am BNE
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. Index des Risikos externer Abhängigkeit
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. Makrofinanzielle und strukturelle Fragilität
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Nicht ausgeführtIn BearbeitungErledigt
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
läuft in Ihrem Browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Methode

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
Fachkundige
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Unsicherheit
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
Sehr niedrig0.0 bis < 2.0
Niedrig2.0 bis < 3.5
Mittel3.5 bis < 5.0
Hoch5.0 bis < 6.5
Sehr hoch6.5 bis 10.0
04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

IndikatorEinheitEvidenzQuellenAnteil
Handelsoffenheit (Exporte plus Importe, Anteil am BIP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
Einnahmen aus internationalem Tourismus, Anteil an den ExportenIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
Erhaltene private Rücküberweisungen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
Erhaltene öffentliche Netto-Entwicklungshilfe, Anteil am BNEIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
Nettozuflüsse ausländischer Direktinvestitionen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

IndikatorEinheitEvidenzQuellenAnteil
Konzentration der Exportprodukte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
Konzentration der Exportmärkte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
Abhängigkeit von RohstoffexportenIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
Renten aus natürlichen Ressourcen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
Volatilität der Terms of Trade (10 Jahre)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
Index der wirtschaftlichen KomplexitätIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

IndikatorEinheitEvidenzQuellenAnteil
Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Brennstoffimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Nettoimportabhängigkeit bei kritischen MineralienIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
Konzentration der Importherkunft (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

IndikatorEinheitEvidenzQuellenAnteil
Ausländischer Wertschöpfungsanteil an den BruttoexportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
Lieferantenkonzentration bei VorleistungsimportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
Seehandel mit Exposition gegenüber maritimen EngpässenIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

IndikatorEinheitEvidenzQuellenAnteil
Leistungsbilanzsaldo, Anteil am BIPIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
Reserven in ImportmonatenIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
Kurzfristige Auslandsschulden, Anteil an den ReservenIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
Auslandsschuldenstand, Anteil am BNEIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05Domäne

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domainIndikatoren
Handel4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
Anlage1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06Indikatoren

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndikatorDomäneSub-domainKomponenteEinheitEbenenCrosswalks
Handelsoffenheit (Exporte plus Importe, Anteil am BIP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECOHandelexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Einnahmen aus internationalem Tourismus, Anteil an den ExportenIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECOHandelvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Erhaltene private Rücküberweisungen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECOHandelexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Erhaltene öffentliche Netto-Entwicklungshilfe, Anteil am BNEIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECOHandelexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Konzentration der Exportprodukte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Konzentration der Exportmärkte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Abhängigkeit von RohstoffexportenIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Industrieerzeugnisse, Anteil an den WarenexportenIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Renten aus natürlichen Ressourcen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Index der wirtschaftlichen KomplexitätIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRY
Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Brennstoffimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Nettoimportabhängigkeit bei kritischen MineralienIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Konzentration der Importherkunft (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Ausländischer Wertschöpfungsanteil an den BruttoexportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Lieferantenkonzentration bei VorleistungsimportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
Seehandel mit Exposition gegenüber maritimen EngpässenIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Nettozuflüsse ausländischer Direktinvestitionen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECOAnlagecoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07Kennwert

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
Werte erscheinen mit der Ausgabe; Intervall, Klasse und Veränderung werden hier angezeigt.
Vorherige Ausgabe
–
Range since 2016
–
Gekoppeltes Gesamtmaß
–
Kopplungswert S
–
Pulse, letzte Woche
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Methode
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Ziehungen
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

Noch keine veröffentlichten Werte. Die erste Ausgabe zeichnet hier den Verlauf mit Intervallband und Klassengrenzen.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Noch keine Veränderungen. Veränderungen gegenüber der vorherigen Ausgabe werden ab der zweiten Ausgabe hier aufgeführt, mit den Indikatoren, die sie bewirkt haben.
08Werte

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
Karte wird geladen
AndorraAntigua und BarbudaBahrainBarbadosKomorenCabo VerdeDominicaMikronesien (Föderierte Staaten von)GrenadaKiribatiSt. Kitts und NevisSt. LuciaLiechtensteinMonacoMaledivenMarshallinselnMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingapurSan MarinoSão Tomé und PríncipeSeychellenTongaTuvaluHeiliger StuhlSt. Vincent und die GrenadinenSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Kacheln
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Beobachtungsschlüssel
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11Im gesamten Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Zitieren

Zitieren und weiterverwenden

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.