Index des Risikos externer Abhängigkeit
Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
5 components
22 leaf indicators
80% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.
- Handelsoffenheit (Exporte plus Importe, Anteil am BIP)Indicator · IND · %Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
- Einnahmen aus internationalem Tourismus, Anteil an den ExportenIndicator · IND · %Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
- Erhaltene private Rücküberweisungen, Anteil am BIPIndicator · IND · %Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
- Erhaltene öffentliche Netto-Entwicklungshilfe, Anteil am BNEIndicator · IND · %Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
- Nettozuflüsse ausländischer Direktinvestitionen, Anteil am BIPIndicator · IND · %Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
- Konzentration der Exportprodukte (normalisierter HHI)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
- Konzentration der Exportmärkte (normalisierter HHI)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Abhängigkeit von RohstoffexportenIndicator · IND · %Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
- Renten aus natürlichen Ressourcen, Anteil am BIPIndicator · IND · %Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
- Volatilität der Terms of Trade (10 Jahre)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
- Index der wirtschaftlichen KomplexitätIndicator · IND · scoreScore of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
- Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIndicator · IND · %Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Brennstoffimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIndicator · IND · %Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Nettoimportabhängigkeit bei kritischen MineralienIndicator · IND · %Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
- Konzentration der Importherkunft (normalisierter HHI)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Ausländischer Wertschöpfungsanteil an den BruttoexportenIndicator · IND · %Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
- Lieferantenkonzentration bei VorleistungsimportenIndicator · IND · %Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
- Seehandel mit Exposition gegenüber maritimen EngpässenIndicator · IND · %Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
- Leistungsbilanzsaldo, Anteil am BIPIndicator · IND · %Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
- Reserven in ImportmonatenIndicator · IND · moGross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
- Kurzfristige Auslandsschulden, Anteil an den ReservenIndicator · IND · %External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
- Auslandsschuldenstand, Anteil am BNEIndicator · IND · %Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
- External flow dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
- Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
- Essential import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
- Supply-chain exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
- External vulnerability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
- Index des Risikos externer AbhängigkeitDomain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
- Makrofinanzielle und strukturelle FragilitätPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 80% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- Fachkundige
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Unsicherheit
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
5 components, 22 indicators
External flow dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Handelsoffenheit (Exporte plus Importe, Anteil am BIP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Einnahmen aus internationalem Tourismus, Anteil an den ExportenIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-tourism | 22.2% |
Erhaltene private Rücküberweisungen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Erhaltene öffentliche Netto-Entwicklungshilfe, Anteil am BNEIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | % | Class A | wb-wdi, oecd-dac | 22.2% |
Nettozuflüsse ausländischer Direktinvestitionen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi | 11.1% |
Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Konzentration der Exportprodukte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | 1 | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade | 18.2% |
Konzentration der Exportmärkte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 13.6% |
Abhängigkeit von RohstoffexportenIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | % | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 18.2% |
Renten aus natürlichen Ressourcen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | % | Class C | wb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations | 13.6% |
Volatilität der Terms of Trade (10 Jahre)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | % | Class B | derived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo | 18.2% |
Index der wirtschaftlichen KomplexitätIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | {score} | Class C | harvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check | 18.2% |
Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Brennstoffimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Nettoimportabhängigkeit bei kritischen MineralienIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals | 14.3% |
Konzentration der Importherkunft (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 28.6% |
Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75
Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ausländischer Wertschöpfungsanteil an den BruttoexportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | % | Class C | oecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora | 33.3% |
Lieferantenkonzentration bei VorleistungsimportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci | 33.3% |
Seehandel mit Exposition gegenüber maritimen EngpässenIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed | 33.3% |
External vulnerability sub-index w 1
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Leistungsbilanzsaldo, Anteil am BIPIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop | 25.0% |
Reserven in ImportmonatenIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover | mo | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-irfcl | 25.0% |
Kurzfristige Auslandsschulden, Anteil an den ReservenIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves | % | Class A | wb-ids, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Auslandsschuldenstand, Anteil am BNEIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni | % | Class A | wb-ids | 25.0% |
Economic structure and trade
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.
| Sub-domain | Indikatoren |
|---|---|
| Handel | 4 |
| Export and import concentration | 10 |
| Supply-chain exposure | 3 |
| Anlage | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.
All 18 economic structure and trade indicators
| Indikator | Domäne | Sub-domain | Komponente | Einheit | Ebenen | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Handelsoffenheit (Exporte plus Importe, Anteil am BIP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | Handel | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
Einnahmen aus internationalem Tourismus, Anteil an den ExportenIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | Handel | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
Erhaltene private Rücküberweisungen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | Handel | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Erhaltene öffentliche Netto-Entwicklungshilfe, Anteil am BNEIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | Handel | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
Konzentration der Exportprodukte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Konzentration der Exportmärkte (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Abhängigkeit von RohstoffexportenIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
Industrieerzeugnisse, Anteil an den WarenexportenIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
Renten aus natürlichen Ressourcen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
Index der wirtschaftlichen KomplexitätIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
Brennstoffimporte, Anteil an den WarenimportenIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Nettoimportabhängigkeit bei kritischen MineralienIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Konzentration der Importherkunft (normalisierter HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Ausländischer Wertschöpfungsanteil an den BruttoexportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Lieferantenkonzentration bei VorleistungsimportenIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Seehandel mit Exposition gegenüber maritimen EngpässenIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Nettozuflüsse ausländischer Direktinvestitionen, Anteil am BIPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | Anlage | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
External dependence risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Vorherige Ausgabe
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Gekoppeltes Gesamtmaß
- –
- Kopplungswert S
- –
- Pulse, letzte Woche
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Methode
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Ziehungen
- 1,000
Noch keine veröffentlichten Werte. Die erste Ausgabe zeichnet hier den Verlauf mit Intervallband und Klassengrenzen.
Country values
- Kacheln
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Beobachtungsschlüssel
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 16 |
SDG | 1 |
IMF_WEO | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Im gesamten Nexus
GCRI Trade and Strategic Resources · Food Nexus · GCRI Advanced Industry and Robotics.
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See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
Methodik, Struktur und Definitionen des Global Risks Index sind ein vorbereitender Arbeitsentwurf (2026), der zur Prüfung und Stellungnahme und nicht zur Umsetzung verbreitet wird. Kein Wert erscheint, bevor eine Ausgabe aus einem geregelten Evidenzschnitt veröffentlicht ist; die Werte tragen dann Intervalle, Klassen, Quellen und ihren Korrekturweg. Die Simulatoren wenden die veröffentlichten Methoden auf Zahlen an, die Sie wählen, und zeigen niemals einen NXS-GRX-Wert.
Was NXS-GRX nicht ist
NXS-GRX ist eine Forschungs- und Risikoanalyseinformation. Es ist kein Kredit- oder ESG-Rating und verwendet keine Ratingskala, kein Referenzwert für Finanzinstrumente, keine amtliche Statistik, keine Notfallwarnung oder amtliche Einstufung und keine Beratung. Es darf nicht zur Bewertung natürlicher Personen verwendet werden. Risikoklassen sind Bänder auf einer veröffentlichten Skala, niemals Rangfolgen von Ländern oder Personen.
Institutionen und Quellen
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.