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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Dış bağımlılık riski endeksi

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Belirsizlik

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Yapı

5 components

22 leaf indicators

Kapsam

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01İnşaat

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
Grafik
01Göstergeler
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Sütun
05Bileşik
100%
Dizin
  1. Ticari dışa açıklık (ihracat artı ithalat, GSYH payı)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Uluslararası turizm gelirleri, ihracatın payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. Alınan kişisel işçi dövizleri, GSYH payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Alınan net resmî kalkınma yardımı, GSMG payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. Doğrudan yabancı yatırım net girişleri, GSYH payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. İhracat ürün yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. İhracat pazarı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Emtia ihracatına bağımlılık
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. Doğal kaynak rantları, GSYH payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. Dış ticaret hadlerinin oynaklığı (10 yıllık)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. Ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksi
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. Gıda ithalatı, mal ithalatının payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. Yakıt ithalatı, mal ithalatının payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. Kritik minerallerde net ithalat bağımlılığı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. İthalat kaynağı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. Brüt ihracatta yabancı katma değer payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. Ara malı ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşması
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. Deniz dar geçitlerine maruz deniz yolu ticareti
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. Cari işlemler dengesi, GSYH payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. İthalatın kaç ayını karşıladığı cinsinden rezervler
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. Kısa vadeli dış borç, rezervlerin payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. Dış borç stoku, GSMG payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. Dış bağımlılık riski endeksi
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. Makrofinansal ve yapısal kırılganlık
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
ÇalıştırılmadıSürüyorTamamlandı
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simülatör

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
tarayıcınızda çalışır
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Yöntem

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
uzman
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Belirsizlik
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
Çok düşük0.0 ile < 2.0 arası
Düşük2.0 ile < 3.5 arası
Orta3.5 ile < 5.0 arası
Yüksek5.0 ile < 6.5 arası
Çok yüksek6.5 ile 10.0
04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
Ticari dışa açıklık (ihracat artı ithalat, GSYH payı)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
Uluslararası turizm gelirleri, ihracatın payıIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
Alınan kişisel işçi dövizleri, GSYH payıIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
Alınan net resmî kalkınma yardımı, GSMG payıIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
Doğrudan yabancı yatırım net girişleri, GSYH payıIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
İhracat ürün yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
İhracat pazarı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
Emtia ihracatına bağımlılıkIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
Doğal kaynak rantları, GSYH payıIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
Dış ticaret hadlerinin oynaklığı (10 yıllık)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
Ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksiIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
Gıda ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Yakıt ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Kritik minerallerde net ithalat bağımlılığıIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
İthalat kaynağı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
Brüt ihracatta yabancı katma değer payıIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
Ara malı ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
Deniz dar geçitlerine maruz deniz yolu ticaretiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
Cari işlemler dengesi, GSYH payıIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
İthalatın kaç ayını karşıladığı cinsinden rezervlerIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
Kısa vadeli dış borç, rezervlerin payıIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
Dış borç stoku, GSMG payıIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05Alan

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domainGöstergeler
Ticaret4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
Yatırım1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06Göstergeler

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
GöstergeAlanSub-domainBileşenBirimDüzeylerCrosswalks
Ticari dışa açıklık (ihracat artı ithalat, GSYH payı)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECOTicaretmaruziyet%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Uluslararası turizm gelirleri, ihracatın payıIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECOTicaretvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Alınan kişisel işçi dövizleri, GSYH payıIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECOTicaretmaruziyet%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Alınan net resmî kalkınma yardımı, GSMG payıIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECOTicaretmaruziyet%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
İhracat ürün yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
İhracat pazarı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Emtia ihracatına bağımlılıkIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
İmalat ürünleri, mal ihracatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationuyum kapasitesi%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Doğal kaynak rantları, GSYH payıIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksiIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationuyum kapasitesi{score}COUNTRY
Gıda ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Yakıt ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Kritik minerallerde net ithalat bağımlılığıIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
İthalat kaynağı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Brüt ihracatta yabancı katma değer payıIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposuremaruziyet%COUNTRY
Ara malı ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
Deniz dar geçitlerine maruz deniz yolu ticaretiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposuremaruziyet%COUNTRY
Doğrudan yabancı yatırım net girişleri, GSYH payıIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECOYatırımbaşa çıkma kapasitesi%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07Gösterge değeri

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
Değerler baskıyla yayımlanır; aralık, sınıf ve değişim burada görünür.
Önceki baskı
–
Range since 2016
–
Bağlantılı bileşik
–
Bağlantı puanı S
–
Pulse, son hafta
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Yöntem
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Çekilişler
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

Henüz yayımlanmış değer yok. İlk baskı, geçmişi burada aralık bandı ve sınıf sınırlarıyla çizer.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Henüz değişiklik yok. Önceki sürümden bu yana olan değişiklikler, ikinci sürümden itibaren bunlara yol açan göstergelerle birlikte burada listelenir.
08Değerler

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
Harita yükleniyor
AndorraAntigua ve BarbudaBahreynBarbadosKomorlarYeşil Burun AdalarıDominikaMikronezyaGrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts ve NevisSaint LuciaLihtenştaynMonakoMaldivlerMarshall AdalarıMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingapurSan MarinoSão Tomé ve PríncipeSeyşellerTongaTuvaluVatikanSaint Vincent ve GrenadinlerSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Döşemeler
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Gözlem anahtarı
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11Nexus genelinde

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Atıf

Atıf ve yeniden kullanım

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.