Dış bağımlılık riski endeksi
Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
5 components
22 leaf indicators
80% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.
- Ticari dışa açıklık (ihracat artı ithalat, GSYH payı)Indicator · IND · %Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
- Uluslararası turizm gelirleri, ihracatın payıIndicator · IND · %Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
- Alınan kişisel işçi dövizleri, GSYH payıIndicator · IND · %Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
- Alınan net resmî kalkınma yardımı, GSMG payıIndicator · IND · %Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
- Doğrudan yabancı yatırım net girişleri, GSYH payıIndicator · IND · %Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
- İhracat ürün yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
- İhracat pazarı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Emtia ihracatına bağımlılıkIndicator · IND · %Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
- Doğal kaynak rantları, GSYH payıIndicator · IND · %Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
- Dış ticaret hadlerinin oynaklığı (10 yıllık)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
- Ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksiIndicator · IND · scoreScore of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
- Gıda ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIndicator · IND · %Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Yakıt ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIndicator · IND · %Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Kritik minerallerde net ithalat bağımlılığıIndicator · IND · %Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
- İthalat kaynağı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Brüt ihracatta yabancı katma değer payıIndicator · IND · %Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
- Ara malı ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIndicator · IND · %Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
- Deniz dar geçitlerine maruz deniz yolu ticaretiIndicator · IND · %Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
- Cari işlemler dengesi, GSYH payıIndicator · IND · %Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
- İthalatın kaç ayını karşıladığı cinsinden rezervlerIndicator · IND · moGross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
- Kısa vadeli dış borç, rezervlerin payıIndicator · IND · %External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
- Dış borç stoku, GSMG payıIndicator · IND · %Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
- External flow dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
- Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
- Essential import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
- Supply-chain exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
- External vulnerability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
- Dış bağımlılık riski endeksiDomain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
- Makrofinansal ve yapısal kırılganlıkPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 80% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- uzman
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Belirsizlik
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
5 components, 22 indicators
External flow dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ticari dışa açıklık (ihracat artı ithalat, GSYH payı)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Uluslararası turizm gelirleri, ihracatın payıIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-tourism | 22.2% |
Alınan kişisel işçi dövizleri, GSYH payıIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Alınan net resmî kalkınma yardımı, GSMG payıIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | % | Class A | wb-wdi, oecd-dac | 22.2% |
Doğrudan yabancı yatırım net girişleri, GSYH payıIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi | 11.1% |
Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
İhracat ürün yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | 1 | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade | 18.2% |
İhracat pazarı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 13.6% |
Emtia ihracatına bağımlılıkIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | % | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 18.2% |
Doğal kaynak rantları, GSYH payıIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | % | Class C | wb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations | 13.6% |
Dış ticaret hadlerinin oynaklığı (10 yıllık)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | % | Class B | derived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo | 18.2% |
Ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksiIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | {score} | Class C | harvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check | 18.2% |
Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gıda ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Yakıt ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Kritik minerallerde net ithalat bağımlılığıIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals | 14.3% |
İthalat kaynağı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 28.6% |
Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75
Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Brüt ihracatta yabancı katma değer payıIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | % | Class C | oecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora | 33.3% |
Ara malı ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci | 33.3% |
Deniz dar geçitlerine maruz deniz yolu ticaretiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed | 33.3% |
External vulnerability sub-index w 1
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cari işlemler dengesi, GSYH payıIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop | 25.0% |
İthalatın kaç ayını karşıladığı cinsinden rezervlerIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover | mo | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-irfcl | 25.0% |
Kısa vadeli dış borç, rezervlerin payıIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves | % | Class A | wb-ids, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Dış borç stoku, GSMG payıIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni | % | Class A | wb-ids | 25.0% |
Economic structure and trade
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.
| Sub-domain | Göstergeler |
|---|---|
| Ticaret | 4 |
| Export and import concentration | 10 |
| Supply-chain exposure | 3 |
| Yatırım | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.
All 18 economic structure and trade indicators
| Gösterge | Alan | Sub-domain | Bileşen | Birim | Düzeyler | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ticari dışa açıklık (ihracat artı ithalat, GSYH payı)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | Ticaret | maruziyet | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
Uluslararası turizm gelirleri, ihracatın payıIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | Ticaret | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
Alınan kişisel işçi dövizleri, GSYH payıIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | Ticaret | maruziyet | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Alınan net resmî kalkınma yardımı, GSMG payıIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | Ticaret | maruziyet | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
İhracat ürün yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
İhracat pazarı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Emtia ihracatına bağımlılıkIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
İmalat ürünleri, mal ihracatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | uyum kapasitesi | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
Doğal kaynak rantları, GSYH payıIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
Ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksiIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | uyum kapasitesi | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Gıda ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
Yakıt ithalatı, mal ithalatının payıIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Kritik minerallerde net ithalat bağımlılığıIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
İthalat kaynağı yoğunlaşması (normalleştirilmiş HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Brüt ihracatta yabancı katma değer payıIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | maruziyet | % | COUNTRY | |
Ara malı ithalatında tedarikçi yoğunlaşmasıIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Deniz dar geçitlerine maruz deniz yolu ticaretiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | maruziyet | % | COUNTRY | |
Doğrudan yabancı yatırım net girişleri, GSYH payıIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | Yatırım | başa çıkma kapasitesi | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
External dependence risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Önceki baskı
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Bağlantılı bileşik
- –
- Bağlantı puanı S
- –
- Pulse, son hafta
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Yöntem
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Çekilişler
- 1,000
Henüz yayımlanmış değer yok. İlk baskı, geçmişi burada aralık bandı ve sınıf sınırlarıyla çizer.
Country values
- Döşemeler
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Gözlem anahtarı
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 16 |
SDG | 1 |
IMF_WEO | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Nexus genelinde
GCRI Trade and Strategic Resources · Food Nexus · GCRI Advanced Industry and Robotics.
Atıf ve yeniden kullanım
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Durum
The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.
NXS-GRX ne değildir
NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.
Kurumlar ve kaynaklar
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Her değer, kendi lisanslarını koruyan kaynaklarının atfını taşır. Harici adlara yalnızca birlikte çalışabilirlik amacıyla atıf yapılır. Nexus tarafından yazılan metinlerin yayımlandığında CC BY 4.0 kapsamında olması amaçlanmaktadır.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.