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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-05 · Exponential technology series

量子関連セキュリティ

公共・金融システムにおける暗号のレジリエンスと耐量子暗号への移行。

Page GRX-SER-XT-05Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-05 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
分野別指数

3

Financial stability risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.

指標

66

3 index domains

Hazard families

22

Information and cyber-physical systems · Frontier and exponential technology.

手法

56

サイバー、AI、フロンティア技術

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
分野別指数
66
indicators in scope
2
ハザードの分野
4
client groups

01対象範囲

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which systems hold long-lived secrets at quantum risk?
  2. How far along is post-quantum migration?
  3. Where would cryptographic failure cascade?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Quantum-relevant security index is built

Graph7 nodes
グラフ
01分野別指数
02Series index
03Readings

100%
索引
  1. 金融安定リスク

    Domain index · IDX · FIN
    Expert-weighted Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0–10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
  2. サイバーリスク

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. 技術集中リスク

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Quantum-relevant security index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-05
    公共・金融システムにおける暗号のレジリエンスと耐量子暗号への移行。
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未実行進行中完了
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03指数

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-05 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Quantum-relevant security index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
インデックス 値 変化 変化 % 90% 区間 区分 · 確率 傾向 幅
金融安定リスクNXS-GRX · FIN – – – – –
サイバーリスクNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
技術集中リスクNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier, Financial system.

04指標

66 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FIN · 32CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指標 分野 Sub-domain 構成要素 単位 レベル Crosswalks
リスク加重資産に対する規制資本IND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT
リスク加重資産に対する Tier 1 資本IND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT
リスク加重資産に対する普通株式等 Tier 1 資本IND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCET_PT
総資産に対する資本(レバレッジ)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS
資本に対する引当金控除後の不良債権IND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital FIN Capital adequacy vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT
貸出総額に対する不良債権IND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS
不良債権に対する引当金IND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl FIN Asset quality coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSPN_PT
経済活動別の貸出集中度IND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT
銀行の一般政府向け債権(銀行資産に占める割合)IND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT
総資産利益率IND.FIN.earnings.roa FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERA_PT
自己資本利益率IND.FIN.earnings.roe FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERE_PT
総資産に対する流動資産IND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS
短期負債に対する流動資産IND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLS_PT
流動性カバレッジ比率IND.FIN.liquidity.lcr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT
安定調達比率IND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT
銀行間以外の貸出に対する顧客預金IND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCD_PT
資本に対するネット外貨オープン・ポジション(絶対値)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT
外貨建て貸出(貸出総額に占める割合、信用のドル化)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFC_PT
外貨建て預金(預金総額に占める割合、預金のドル化)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT
民間部門向け国内信用(GDP 比)IND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion context % COUNTRY WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14
信用 GDP ギャップ(BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY
民間部門向け信用の実質伸び率IND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT
家計債務(GDP 比)IND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
非金融企業債務(GDP 比)IND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT
口座保有率(成人)IND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
実質住宅価格上昇率IND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT
住宅価格の対所得比率(長期平均からの乖離)IND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY, CITY
その他の金融機関の資産(GDP 比)IND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp FIN Non-bank financial intermediation context % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT
保険浸透度(保険料の対 GDP 比)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration FIN Non-bank financial intermediation coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10
自然災害の保護ギャップIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap FIN Non-bank financial intermediation vulnerability % REGION, COUNTRY
炭素集約型セクターへの銀行のエクスポージャーIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
物理的気候リスクの高い銀行貸出IND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
重要鉱物の純輸入依存度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
自然への依存度が高いセクターの GDP(割合)IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
基準水ストレス・スコア(小流域)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress WAT 水ストレス hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
インターネット利用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
国際接続経路の冗長性IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
全国規模のインターネット障害の時間数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
ITU グローバル・サイバーセキュリティ指数スコアIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
ITU グローバル・サイバーセキュリティ指数の階層IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI 法的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI 技術的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI 組織的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI 能力開発措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI 協力措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
国のコンピュータ・インシデント対応チームの運用IND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
データ保護・プライバシー法の施行IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
人口 100 万人あたりの重大なサイバー・インシデントIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
重要サービスを途絶させるサイバー・インシデントIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT サービスの付加価値(GDP 比)IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
電子政府の発展度IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
研究開発費総額(GDP 比)IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
人口 100 万人あたり研究者数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
ハイテク輸出(工業製品輸出に占める割合)IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
半導体の輸入供給元集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
クラウド・インフラ提供者の集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
外国または単一提供者の管理下にある AI 計算能力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
基盤モデル提供者の集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
高度封じ込め実験施設のバイオセーフティとバイオセキュリティの監督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC バイオテクノロジー coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
ソブリン・カタストロフィ・リスク移転の限度額(GDP 比)IND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
自然災害保険の保護ギャップIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap CRS Risk financing and protection gap vulnerability % COUNTRY
損害保険料(GDP 比)IND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
05ハザード

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
情報フロンティア157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
ファミリー 分野 ハザード Count
Malicious compromise 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events 情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システム Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
AI system failure and misalignment フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
バイオテクノロジーと合成生物学 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
気候介入技術 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06手法

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

サイバー、AI、フロンティア技術

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

08レポート

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-05
Edition status
予定
対象
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09引用

引用と再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Quantum-relevant security series (GRX-SER-XT-05), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-05/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000092.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-05:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.