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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-05 · Exponential technology series

Keamanan terkait kuantum

Ketahanan kriptografi dan migrasi ke kriptografi pascakuantum di seluruh sistem publik dan keuangan.

Page GRX-SER-XT-05Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-05 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indeks domain

3

Financial stability risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.

Indikator

66

3 index domains

Hazard families

22

Information and cyber-physical systems · Frontier and exponential technology.

Metode

56

Siber, AI, dan teknologi mutakhir

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
indeks ranah
66
indicators in scope
2
ranah bahaya
4
client groups

01Lingkup

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which systems hold long-lived secrets at quantum risk?
  2. How far along is post-quantum migration?
  3. Where would cryptographic failure cascade?
02Konstruksi

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Quantum-relevant security index is built

Graph7 nodes
Grafik
01Indeks domain
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Indeks
  1. Risiko stabilitas keuangan

    Domain index · IDX · FIN
    Expert-weighted Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0–10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
  2. Risiko siber

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Risiko konsentrasi teknologi

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Quantum-relevant security index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-05
    Ketahanan kriptografi dan migrasi ke kriptografi pascakuantum di seluruh sistem publik dan keuangan.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Belum dijalankanSedang berjalanSelesai
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indeks

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-05 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Quantum-relevant security index, world
–
Nilai terbit bersama edisi; interval, kelas, dan perubahan muncul di sini.
Indeks Nilai Perubahan Perubahan % Interval 90% Kelas · probabilitas Tren Rentang
Risiko stabilitas keuanganNXS-GRX · FIN – – – – –
Risiko siberNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Risiko konsentrasi teknologiNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier, Financial system.

04Indikator

66 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FIN · 32CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indikator Domain Sub-domain Komponen Unit Tingkat Crosswalks
Modal regulasi terhadap aset tertimbang menurut risikoIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa FIN Capital adequacy kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT
Modal Tier 1 terhadap aset tertimbang menurut risikoIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT
Modal Common Equity Tier 1 terhadap aset tertimbang menurut risikoIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCET_PT
Modal terhadap total aset (leverage)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets FIN Capital adequacy kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS
Kredit bermasalah setelah dikurangi pencadangan terhadap modalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital FIN Capital adequacy vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT
Kredit bermasalah terhadap total kredit brutoIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS
Pencadangan terhadap kredit bermasalahIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl FIN Asset quality kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSPN_PT
Konsentrasi kredit menurut kegiatan ekonomiIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT
Tagihan bank kepada pemerintah umum, porsi terhadap aset bankIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT
Imbal hasil asetIND.FIN.earnings.roa FIN Earnings kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERA_PT
Imbal hasil ekuitasIND.FIN.earnings.roe FIN Earnings kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERE_PT
Aset likuid terhadap total asetIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total FIN Liquidity and funding kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS
Aset likuid terhadap kewajiban jangka pendekIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities FIN Liquidity and funding kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLS_PT
Rasio kecukupan likuiditasIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr FIN Liquidity and funding kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT
Rasio pendanaan stabil bersihIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr FIN Liquidity and funding kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT
Simpanan nasabah terhadap total kredit non-antarbankIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans FIN Liquidity and funding kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCD_PT
Posisi devisa neto terhadap modal (absolut)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT
Kredit valuta asing, porsi terhadap total kredit (dolarisasi kredit)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFC_PT
Simpanan valuta asing, porsi terhadap total simpanan (dolarisasi simpanan)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT
Kredit domestik kepada sektor swasta, porsi terhadap PDBIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion context % COUNTRY WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14
Kesenjangan kredit terhadap PDB (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pertumbuhan riil kredit kepada sektor swastaIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT
Utang rumah tangga, porsi terhadap PDBIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Utang korporasi nonkeuangan, porsi terhadap PDBIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT
Kepemilikan rekening, orang dewasaIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Pertumbuhan riil harga properti residensialIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT
Rasio harga rumah terhadap pendapatan, deviasi dari rata-rata jangka panjangIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY, CITY
Aset korporasi keuangan lainnya, porsi terhadap PDBIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp FIN Non-bank financial intermediation context % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT
Penetrasi asuransi (premi terhadap PDB)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration FIN Non-bank financial intermediation kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10
Kesenjangan perlindungan bencana alamIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap FIN Non-bank financial intermediation vulnerability % REGION, COUNTRY
Eksposur bank terhadap sektor padat karbonIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure keterpaparan % COUNTRY
Kredit bank yang terpapar risiko iklim fisik tinggiIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure keterpaparan % COUNTRY
Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritisIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes keterpaparan % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions keterpaparan Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure keterpaparan % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
PDB di sektor yang sangat bergantung pada alam, porsiIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence keterpaparan % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Skor dasar cekaman air (sub-DAS)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress WAT Tekanan air hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
Konsentrasi pemasok impor mineral kritisIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Mineral kritis vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Individu yang menggunakan internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundansi rute konektivitas internasionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity kapasitas penanggulangan 1 COUNTRY
Jam gangguan internet berskala nasionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Skor ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Tingkatan ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar langkah hukum ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar langkah teknis ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar langkah organisasi ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar langkah pengembangan kapasitas ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability kapasitas adaptif {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar langkah kerja sama ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Tim tanggap insiden komputer nasional yang beroperasiIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Undang-undang pelindungan data dan privasi yang berlakuIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Insiden siber signifikan per juta pendudukIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Insiden siber yang mengganggu layanan kritisIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Nilai tambah layanan TIK, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence keterpaparan % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Perkembangan e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence keterpaparan {score} COUNTRY
Belanja domestik bruto untuk litbang, porsi terhadap PDBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Peneliti per juta pendudukIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Ekspor teknologi tinggi, porsi terhadap ekspor manufakturIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Konsentrasi pemasok impor semikonduktorIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi penyedia infrastruktur cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Kapasitas komputasi AI di bawah kendali asing atau penyedia tunggalIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Kecerdasan buatan vulnerability % COUNTRY
Konsentrasi penyedia model fondasiIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Kecerdasan buatan vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pengawasan biosafety dan biosekuriti laboratorium penahanan tinggiIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Bioteknologi kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY
Batas transfer risiko katastrofe negara, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp CRS Risk financing and protection gap kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY
Kesenjangan perlindungan asuransi bencana alamIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap CRS Risk financing and protection gap vulnerability % COUNTRY
Premi asuransi umum, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration CRS Risk financing and protection gap kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY
05Bahaya

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformasiGaris depan157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Keluarga Domain Bahaya Jumlah
Malicious compromise Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
AI system failure and misalignment Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Bioteknologi dan biologi sintetis Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Teknologi intervensi iklim Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Buku besar terdistribusi dan aset digital Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Metode

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Siber, AI, dan teknologi mutakhir

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

08Laporan

Edisi Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-05
Edition status
direncanakan
Subjek
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Edisi Nexus Reports

09Kutip

Kutip dan gunakan kembali

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Quantum-relevant security series (GRX-SER-XT-05), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-05/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000092.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-05:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.