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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-05 · Exponential technology series

Segurança relevante para a era quântica

Resiliência criptográfica e a migração para a criptografia pós-quântica nos sistemas públicos e financeiros.

Page GRX-SER-XT-05Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-05 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de domínio

3

Financial stability risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.

Indicadores

66

3 index domains

Hazard families

22

Information and cyber-physical systems · Frontier and exponential technology.

Métodos

56

Cibernética, IA e tecnologias de fronteira

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
índices de domínio
66
indicators in scope
2
domínios de ameaça
4
client groups

01Escopo

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which systems hold long-lived secrets at quantum risk?
  2. How far along is post-quantum migration?
  3. Where would cryptographic failure cascade?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Quantum-relevant security index is built

Graph7 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de domínio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Risco de estabilidade financeira

    Domain index · IDX · FIN
    Expert-weighted Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0–10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
  2. Risco cibernético

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Risco de concentração tecnológica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Quantum-relevant security index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-05
    Resiliência criptográfica e a migração para a criptografia pós-quântica nos sistemas públicos e financeiros.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-05 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Quantum-relevant security index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Índice Valor Variação Variação % Intervalo de 90% Classe · probabilidade Tendência Faixa
Risco de estabilidade financeiraNXS-GRX · FIN – – – – –
Risco cibernéticoNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Risco de concentração tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier, Financial system.

04Indicadores

66 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FIN · 32CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Domínio Sub-domain Componente Unidade Níveis Crosswalks
Capital regulatório sobre ativos ponderados pelo riscoIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT
Capital de nível 1 sobre ativos ponderados pelo riscoIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT
Capital principal de nível 1 sobre ativos ponderados pelo riscoIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCET_PT
Capital sobre ativos totais (alavancagem)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS
Empréstimos inadimplentes líquidos de provisões sobre o capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital FIN Capital adequacy vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT
Empréstimos inadimplentes sobre o total de empréstimos brutosIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS
Provisões sobre empréstimos inadimplentesIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl FIN Asset quality coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSPN_PT
Concentração de empréstimos por atividade econômicaIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT
Créditos bancários sobre o governo geral, em % dos ativos bancáriosIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT
Retorno sobre ativosIND.FIN.earnings.roa FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERA_PT
Retorno sobre o patrimônio líquidoIND.FIN.earnings.roe FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERE_PT
Ativos líquidos sobre ativos totaisIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS
Ativos líquidos sobre passivos de curto prazoIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLS_PT
Índice de cobertura de liquidezIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT
Índice de financiamento estável líquidoIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT
Depósitos de clientes sobre o total de empréstimos não interbancáriosIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCD_PT
Posição líquida aberta em moeda estrangeira sobre o capital (absoluta)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT
Empréstimos em moeda estrangeira, em % do total de empréstimos (dolarização do crédito)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFC_PT
Depósitos em moeda estrangeira, em % do total de depósitos (dolarização dos depósitos)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT
Crédito interno ao setor privado, em % do PIBIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion context % COUNTRY WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14
Hiato crédito/PIB (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY
Crescimento real do crédito ao setor privadoIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT
Dívida das famílias, em % do PIBIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Dívida das empresas não financeiras, em % do PIBIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT
Titularidade de conta, adultosIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Crescimento real dos preços de imóveis residenciaisIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT
Relação preço dos imóveis/renda, desvio da média de longo prazoIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY, CITY
Ativos de outras sociedades financeiras, em % do PIBIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp FIN Non-bank financial intermediation context % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT
Penetração de seguros (prêmios sobre o PIB)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration FIN Non-bank financial intermediation coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10
Lacuna de proteção contra catástrofes naturaisIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap FIN Non-bank financial intermediation vulnerability % REGION, COUNTRY
Exposição bancária a setores intensivos em carbonoIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Empréstimos bancários expostos a alto risco climático físicoIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Dependência líquida de importações de minerais críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
PIB em setores altamente dependentes da natureza, em %IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Pontuação de estresse hídrico de base (sub-bacia)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress WAT Estresse hídrico hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Pessoas que usam a internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundância das rotas de conectividade internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Horas de interrupção da internet em escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Pontuação no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Nível no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar de medidas jurídicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar de medidas técnicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar de medidas organizacionais do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar de medidas de desenvolvimento de capacidades do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar de medidas de cooperação do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Equipe nacional de resposta a incidentes de computador em operaçãoIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Legislação de proteção de dados e privacidade em vigorIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Incidentes cibernéticos significativos por milhão de habitantesIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Incidentes cibernéticos que interrompem serviços críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valor agregado dos serviços de TIC, em % do PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Desenvolvimento do governo eletrônicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Despesa interna bruta em P&D, em % do PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Pesquisadores por milhão de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportações de alta tecnologia, em % das exportações de manufaturadosIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de semicondutoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de infraestrutura em nuvemIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacidade de computação de IA sob controle estrangeiro ou de um único provedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de modelos de fundaçãoIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisão de biossegurança e bioproteção de laboratórios de alta contençãoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnologia coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Limite de transferência soberana de risco de catástrofes, em % do PIBIND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
Lacuna de proteção de seguros contra catástrofes naturaisIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap CRS Risk financing and protection gap vulnerability % COUNTRY
Prêmios de seguros não vida, em % do PIBIND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
05Ameaças

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformaçãoFronteira157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Família Domínio Ameaças Count
Malicious compromise Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnologia e biologia sintética Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologias de intervenção climática Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Cibernética, IA e tecnologias de fronteira

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

08Relatórios

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-05
Edition status
prevista
Objeto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Quantum-relevant security series (GRX-SER-XT-05), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-05/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000092.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-05:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.