The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · Exponential technology series
融合技术
前沿技术结合时出现的风险（AI 与生物技术、自主系统与网络、算力与能源），其发展超出了单一技术治理的范围。
Page GRX-SER-XT-20Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-20 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
领域指数
4
Health security risk · Governance weakness · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.
指标
102
4 index domains
Hazard families
20
Frontier and exponential technology · Systemic and compound events.
方法
77
Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.
4
领域指数
102
indicators in scope
2
危害领域
4
client groups
01范围
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which technology combinations create new hazard classes?
- Where does convergence outrun governance?
- What early signals should be watched?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Converging technologies index is built
Graph8 nodes
流程图
01领域指数
02Series index
03Readings
100%
索引
-
卫生安全风险Domain index · IDX · HLTINFORM-style aggregation, on 0 to 10, of epidemic and AMR hazard, disease burden and undernutrition against health-system and IHR capacity, each component oriented by its own polarity.
-
治理薄弱Domain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
-
网络风险Domain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
技术集中风险Domain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
Converging technologies indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-20前沿技术结合时出现的风险（AI 与生物技术、自主系统与网络、算力与能源），其发展超出了单一技术治理的范围。
-
Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未运行进行中已完成
03指数
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Converging technologies index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
| 指数 | 数值 | 变化 | 变化 % | 90% 区间 | 类别 · 概率 | 趋势 | 范围 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
卫生安全风险NXS-GRX · HLT |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
治理薄弱NXS-GRX · GOV |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
网络风险NXS-GRX · CYB |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
技术集中风险NXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Health, Governance and institutions.
04指标
102 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIC-DSF 综合指标得分（已发布，参考）IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
适应投资的经济准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
适应的治理准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
每年危险湿热日数IND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501 |
人均热浪风险暴露事件数IND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
暴露于极端高温的人口占比IND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
PM2.5 风险暴露，人口加权平均值IND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure |
ENV | 空气质量 | hazard | ug/m3 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD |
暴露浓度高于 WHO PM2.5 指导值的人口占比IND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share |
ENV | 空气质量 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS |
季节性臭氧峰值风险暴露IND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure |
ENV | 空气质量 | hazard | [ppb] |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
使用安全管理饮用水的人口IND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD |
至少使用基本饮用水的人口IND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS |
使用安全管理卫生设施的人口IND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD |
拥有基本洗手设施的人口IND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1 |
对外部可再生水的依赖率IND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
有运作中合作安排的跨界流域面积IND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
五岁以下儿童死亡率IND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007 |
新生儿死亡率IND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2 |
孕产妇死亡率IND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026 |
出生时预期寿命IND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001 |
主要非传染性疾病导致的过早死亡率IND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070 |
结核病发病率IND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020 |
疟疾发病率IND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA |
HIV 发病率IND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS |
每 1,000 人医生数IND.HLT.system.physician_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1 |
每 1,000 人护士和助产士数IND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1 |
每 1,000 人医院床位数IND.HLT.system.hospital_beds |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102 |
UHC 服务覆盖指数IND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD |
发生灾难性自付医疗支出的人口IND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
自付支出，占经常性卫生支出比重IND.HLT.system.oop_share |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011 |
经常性卫生支出，占 GDP 比重IND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS |
DTP3 免疫接种覆盖率IND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1 |
麻疹第二剂免疫接种覆盖率IND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1 |
由熟练卫生人员接生的分娩IND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2 |
前往最近卫生设施的出行时间IND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
IHR 核心能力得分（SPAR）IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018 |
IHR 实验室能力（SPAR C4）IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1 |
IHR 监测能力（SPAR C5）IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2 |
IHR 卫生应急管理能力（SPAR C7）IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1 |
IHR 风险沟通能力（SPAR C10）IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5 |
流行病事件频率IND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
报告的霍乱病例，每 100,000 人IND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001 |
MRSA 引起的血流感染IND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2 |
对第三代头孢菌素耐药的大肠杆菌引起的血流感染IND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2 |
五岁以下儿童发育迟缓IND.HLT.nutrition.stunting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025 |
五岁以下儿童消瘦IND.HLT.nutrition.wasting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026 |
育龄妇女贫血IND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043 |
国家议会中女性所占席位IND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
65 岁及以上人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.structure.share_65plus |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
针对医疗卫生的袭击IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
话语权和问责（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
政治稳定和无暴力（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
政府效能（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
腐败控制（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
清廉指数（透明国际）IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
新闻自由得分（RSF）IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
法治（WGI）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
产权和基于规则的治理（CPIA）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
未判决被拘留者，占在押人口比重IND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
企业行贿发生率IND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
监管质量（WGI）IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
CPIA 总体评级（IDA 资源分配指数）IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA 公共部门管理和机构IND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA 公共部门透明度、问责和腐败IND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
收入动员效率（CPIA）IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
预算执行与核定预算的偏差IND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
统计绩效指标总得分IND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
出生登记完整性IND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
距上次人口普查的年数IND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
营商环境得分（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
主要依靠清洁烹饪燃料和技术的人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking |
ENE | 访问 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
互联网使用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
国际连接路由冗余度IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
全国范围互联网中断小时数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
具备 72 小时备用电源的关键设施IND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
位于高危害区的生命线设施占比IND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
因灾害受损或被毁的卫生设施IND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
ITU 全球网络安全指数得分IND.CYB.capability.gci_score |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
ITU 全球网络安全指数等级IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier |
CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
ITU GCI 法律措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
ITU GCI 技术措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
ITU GCI 组织措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
ITU GCI 能力建设措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development |
CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
ITU GCI 合作措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
国家计算机事件响应团队已运作IND.CYB.capability.national_cert |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
数据保护和隐私立法已生效IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
每百万人重大网络事件数IND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate |
CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a |
COUNTRY | |
扰乱关键服务的网络事件IND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
ICT 服务增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
电子政务发展IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
研发总支出，占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
高技术出口，占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | 生物技术 | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
与《仙台框架》一致的国家减少灾害风险战略IND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
拥有与国家战略一致的减少灾害风险战略的地方政府IND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
15 分钟内可获得应急服务的人口IND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
05危害
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| 类别 | 领域 | 危害 | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | 前沿与指数型技术 | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | 前沿与指数型技术 | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | 前沿与指数型技术 | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| 生物技术与合成生物学 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | 前沿与指数型技术 | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | 前沿与指数型技术 | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| 气候干预技术 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | 前沿与指数型技术 | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | 前沿与指数型技术 | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | 前沿与指数型技术 | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | 前沿与指数型技术 | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Supply-chain and flow disruption | 系统性与复合事件 | Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … | 17 |
| Cascading failure | 系统性与复合事件 | Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … | 10 |
| Compound and multi-hazard events | 系统性与复合事件 | Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … | 9 |
| Structural fragility of interconnected systems | 系统性与复合事件 | Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … | 11 |
06方法
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
56 methods
网络、人工智能与前沿技术
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
21 methods
网络、依存关系与系统性风险
Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Universities and research
Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.
08报告
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-20- Edition status
- 计划中
- 主题
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
09引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Converging technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-20), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-20/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000107.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-20:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.HLT.security.health_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.