冲突风险指数
Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
15 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Shows where organised violence is already deadly and where structural insecurity makes it likely; the penalty for unbalance stops low militarisation masking high deadliness.
- 每 100,000 人冲突死亡人数Indicator · IND · /10*5Reported fatalities from organised political violence in the year per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- 政治暴力事件Indicator · IND · 1Number of events coded as political violence in the year: battles, explosions and remote violence, violence against civilians and mob violence.
- 冲突的地理扩散Indicator · IND · %Share of the country’s populated grid cells (about 10 km) recording at least the diffusion threshold of political violence events in the year.
- 武装行为体的碎片化Indicator · IND · 1Number of distinct non-state armed and identity militia groups recorded as active in political violence events in the year.
- 针对平民的事件Indicator · IND · 1Number of political violence events in the year in which civilians were the primary target, whatever the event type.
- 针对性暴力造成的平民死亡人数，每 100,000 人Indicator · IND · /10*5Deaths reported in events where civilians were the primary target, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- 针对医疗卫生的袭击Indicator · IND · 1Number of verified attacks on health facilities, transport, personnel, patients and supplies in the year.
- 地雷和战争遗留爆炸物造成的伤亡Indicator · IND · personsPeople killed or injured in the year by landmines, improvised mines, cluster munition remnants and other explosive remnants of war.
- 故意杀人率Indicator · IND · /10*5Victims of unlawful death purposely inflicted by another person, per 100,000 population, excluding deaths in armed conflict.
- 骚乱和暴力示威Indicator · IND · 1Number of violent demonstrations and mob-violence events in the year.
- 军事支出，占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Current and capital military spending, including armed forces, defence ministries, paramilitary forces and military aid, as a percentage of GDP (SIPRI definition).
- 武装部队人员，占劳动力比重Indicator · IND · %Active-duty military and paramilitary personnel as a percentage of the total labour force.
- 全球和平指数总得分（IEP）Indicator · IND · scoreInstitute for Economics and Peace composite of societal safety, ongoing conflict and militarisation, from 1 (most peaceful) to 5, ingested as the published source series.
- OECD 脆弱国家分类Indicator · IND · classClass assigned in the OECD States of Fragility framework: 2 extremely fragile, 1 other fragile, 0 not listed, ingested as published for each edition.
- 世界银行脆弱和受冲突影响局势状态Indicator · IND · yes or noWhether the country appears on the World Bank’s fiscal-year list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, for conflict or for institutional and social fragility.
- Conflict intensity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 40.0%Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
- Civilian harm sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
- Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
- External conflict and fragility assessments sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
- 冲突风险指数Domain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
- 危害与威胁暴露Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- 专家
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不确定性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Risk hazard: human (structure only); ACLED Conflict Index (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
4 components, 15 indicators
Conflict intensity sub-index w 2
Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
每 100,000 人冲突死亡人数IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:nis:IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | 40.0% |
政治暴力事件IND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
冲突的地理扩散IND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | % | Class D | derived:acled, ghsl-pop | 20.0% |
武装行为体的碎片化IND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | 1 | Class D | derived:acled | 20.0% |
Civilian harm sub-index w 1.5
Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
针对平民的事件IND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
针对性暴力造成的平民死亡人数，每 100,000 人IND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:acled, ucdp-ged | 40.0% |
针对医疗卫生的袭击IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | 1 | Class B | who-surveillance-system-attacks-health-care, insecurity-insight | 20.0% |
地雷和战争遗留爆炸物造成的伤亡IND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | {persons} | Class C | landmine-monitor, unmas | 20.0% |
Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index w 1
Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
故意杀人率IND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | /10*5 | Class B | unodc-homicide, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
骚乱和暴力示威IND.CON.peace.riot_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 25.0% |
军事支出，占 GDP 比重IND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | % | Class B | sipri-milex, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
武装部队人员，占劳动力比重IND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | % | Class B | iiss-military-balance, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
全球和平指数总得分（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | {score} | Class C | iep-global-peace-index | 33.3% |
OECD 脆弱国家分类IND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | {class} | Class C | oecd-states-of-fragility | 33.3% |
世界银行脆弱和受冲突影响局势状态IND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | {bool} | Class C | wb-fcs-list | 33.3% |
冲突与安全
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.
| Sub-domain | 指标 |
|---|---|
| Organised violence | 10 |
| Civilian harm | 4 |
| Peacefulness | 3 |
| Fragility | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ACLED Conflict Index; Global Peace Index 2026; OECD States of Fragility 2025.
All 19 conflict and security indicators
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
有组织政治暴力造成的报告死亡人数IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
每 100,000 人冲突死亡人数IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
战斗相关死亡人数（UCDP）IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
政治暴力事件IND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
武装冲突事件IND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
冲突的地理扩散IND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
武装行为体的碎片化IND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
故意杀人率IND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
军事支出，占 GDP 比重IND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
武装部队人员，占劳动力比重IND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
针对平民的事件IND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
针对性暴力造成的平民死亡人数，每 100,000 人IND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
针对医疗卫生的袭击IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
地雷和战争遗留爆炸物造成的伤亡IND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
骚乱和暴力示威IND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
全球和平指数总得分（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
全球和平指数持续冲突领域得分（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
OECD 脆弱国家分类IND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
世界银行脆弱和受冲突影响局势状态IND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY |
Conflict risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- 上一版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 耦合综合
- –
- 耦合得分 S
- –
- 脉搏，最近一周
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 方法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽样次数
- 1,000
尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。
Country values
- 瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/con/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 观测键
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
ACLED | 7 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
SDG | 2 |
GPI | 1 |
OECD_FRAGILITY | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
引用与再利用
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.