The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · Strategic systems series
冲突、脆弱性与人的安全
冲突风险与升级、脆弱性、有组织暴力、平民伤害，以及冲突、气候、粮食与流离失所之间的关联。
Page GRX-SER-SR-02Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-02 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
领域指数
1
冲突风险
指标
140
5 index domains
Hazard families
14
社会、冲突与经济
方法
21
地缘政治、冲突与人类安全
1
领域指数
140
indicators in scope
1
危害领域
5
client groups
01范围
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Where is conflict likely to start or escalate?
- Which fragile contexts are most exposed to compound shocks?
- How does conflict propagate into food insecurity and displacement?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Conflict, fragility and human security index is built
Graph5 nodes
流程图
01领域指数
02Series index
03Readings
100%
索引
-
冲突风险Domain index · IDX · CONMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
-
Conflict, fragility and human security indexSeries index · SERIES · SR-02冲突风险与升级、脆弱性、有组织暴力、平民伤害，以及冲突、气候、粮食与流离失所之间的关联。
-
Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未运行进行中已完成
03指数
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Conflict, fragility and human security index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
| 指数 | 数值 | 变化 | 变化 % | 90% 区间 | 类别 · 概率 | 趋势 | 范围 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
冲突风险NXS-GRX · CON |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Conflict and security, Governance and institutions, Demography and mobility, Food systems, Social and human development.
04指标
140 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
食品价格通胀率IND.MAC.prices.food_inflation |
MAC | Prices and inflation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT CP |
失业率IND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate |
MAC | Labour market | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT |
LIC-DSF 综合指标得分（已发布，参考）IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
家庭债务，占 GDP 比重IND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp |
FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSHG_PT |
成年人账户拥有率IND.FIN.depth.account_ownership |
FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2 |
收到的个人汇款，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp |
ECO | 贸易 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
食品进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
适应投资的经济准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
适应的治理准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
适应的社会准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
农业干旱胁迫频率IND.HAZ.drought.agricultural_stress_frequency |
HAZ | 干旱 | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | INFORM ASI |
季节性臭氧峰值风险暴露IND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure |
ENV | 空气质量 | hazard | [ppb] |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
退化土地，占陆地面积比重IND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | SDG 15.3.1 |
处于生物可持续水平内的鱼类种群IND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share |
ENV | Ocean | vulnerability | % |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY | SDG 14.4.1 |
依赖动物授粉的作物产值占比IND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share |
ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
水资源压力水平IND.WAT.stress.water_stress |
WAT | 水资源压力 | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS |
对外部可再生水的依赖率IND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
有运作中合作安排的跨界流域面积IND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
发生灾难性自付医疗支出的人口IND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
五岁以下儿童发育迟缓IND.HLT.nutrition.stunting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025 |
五岁以下儿童消瘦IND.HLT.nutrition.wasting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026 |
育龄妇女贫血IND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043 |
食物不足发生率IND.FOO.availability.undernourishment |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS |
食物不足人数IND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | {persons} |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210011 |
平均膳食能量供应充足率IND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21010 |
人均食物供应波动性IND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | kcal/d/{person} |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21031 |
谷物进口依赖率IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
中度或重度粮食不安全（FIES）IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS |
重度粮食不安全（FIES）IND.FOO.access.fies_severe |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS |
健康膳食成本IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
无力负担健康膳食的人口IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
处于 IPC 第 3 阶段及以上的人口IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population |
FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
受分析人口中处于 IPC 第 3 阶段及以上的占比IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share |
FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
IPC 第 3 阶段及以上，占总人口比重IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total |
FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % |
COUNTRY | |
是否存在处于 IPC 第 5 阶段的人口IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence |
FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {bool} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 5 |
食品价格异常指标（食品 CPI）IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly |
FOO | Food prices | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY | SDG 2.c.1 |
食品价格异常偏高的月数IND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months |
FOO | Food prices | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | |
食品进口支出，占商品出口比重IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports |
FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
农林渔业增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
农业就业，占总就业比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
谷物单产IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | kg/har |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG |
谷物单产波动性（15 年）IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
农业取水量，占总取水量比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
耕地，占陆地面积比重IND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
耕地植被健康指数IND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | |
极端贫困人口比例，每天 3.00 美元（2021 年 PPP）IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1 |
贫困人口比例，每天 4.20 美元（2021 年 PPP）IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC |
贫困人口比例，每天 8.30 美元（2021 年 PPP）IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC |
按国家贫困线计算的贫困人口比例IND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1 |
多维贫困人口比例（全球 MPI）IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB |
基尼系数IND.SOC.inequality.gini |
SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI |
最低 40% 人群的收入或消费占比IND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share |
SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20 |
最低 40% 人群的消费或收入增长率IND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth |
SOC | Inequality | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1 |
不平等造成的人类发展损失IND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss |
SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | HDR loss |
平均受教育年限IND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling |
SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a |
COUNTRY | HDR mys |
预期受教育年限IND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling |
SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a |
COUNTRY | HDR eys |
学习贫困IND.SOC.education.learning_poverty |
SOC | Education | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1 |
成人识字率IND.SOC.education.adult_literacy |
SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1 |
性别不平等指数（UNDP）IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index |
SOC | Gender | vulnerability | {score} |
COUNTRY | HDR gii |
女性劳动力参与率IND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS |
国家议会中女性所占席位IND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
至少享有一项社会保护福利的人口IND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage |
SOC | Social protection | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot |
未就业、未受教育或培训的青年IND.SOC.protection.youth_neet |
SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT |
非正规就业，占总就业比重IND.SOC.protection.informal_employment |
SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS |
从事童工劳动的 5 至 17 岁儿童IND.SOC.protection.child_labour |
SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS |
人类发展指数（UNDP）IND.SOC.development.hdi |
SOC | 人类发展 | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | HDR hdi |
不平等调整后人类发展指数（UNDP）IND.SOC.development.ihdi |
SOC | 人类发展 | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | HDR ihdi |
总人口IND.DEM.population.total |
DEM | 人口 | context | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July |
人口密度IND.DEM.population.density |
DEM | 人口 | context | {persons}/km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity |
人口增长率IND.DEM.population.growth |
DEM | 人口 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate |
总和生育率IND.DEM.population.fertility_rate |
DEM | 人口 | context | {births}/{woman} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR |
年龄抚养比IND.DEM.structure.age_dependency |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.DPND |
65 岁及以上人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.structure.share_65plus |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
15 岁以下人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.structure.share_under15 |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS |
城市人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | context | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS |
城市人口增长率IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW |
居住在贫民窟的城市人口IND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1 |
按原籍国统计的难民IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY | UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR |
按原籍国统计的难民，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | SDG 10.7.4 |
收容的难民（庇护国）IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted |
DEM | Forced displacement | exposure | {persons} |
COUNTRY | UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG |
收容的难民，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | exposure | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | |
收容的寻求庇护者，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | exposure | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | UNHCR ASY |
境内流离失所者，冲突和暴力（存量）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP |
境内流离失所者，灾害（存量）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC disaster_total_displacement |
境内流离失所者，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | |
新增境内流离失所，冲突和暴力IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV |
新增境内流离失所，灾害IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS |
新增境内流离失所，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | |
净移民IND.DEM.migration.net_migration |
DEM | Migration | context | {persons} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations |
净移民率IND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rate |
DEM | Migration | context | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | UN_WPP CNMR |
国际移民存量，占人口比重IND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_share |
DEM | Migration | context | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS |
有组织政治暴力造成的报告死亡人数IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
每 100,000 人冲突死亡人数IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
战斗相关死亡人数（UCDP）IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
政治暴力事件IND.CON.violence.political_violence_events |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
武装冲突事件IND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
冲突的地理扩散IND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion |
CON | Organised violence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
武装行为体的碎片化IND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
故意杀人率IND.CON.violence.homicide_rate |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
军事支出，占 GDP 比重IND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp |
CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
武装部队人员，占劳动力比重IND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share |
CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
针对平民的事件IND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events |
CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
针对性暴力造成的平民死亡人数，每 100,000 人IND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
针对医疗卫生的袭击IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
地雷和战争遗留爆炸物造成的伤亡IND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY | |
骚乱和暴力示威IND.CON.peace.riot_events |
CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
全球和平指数总得分（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_score |
CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} |
COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
全球和平指数持续冲突领域得分（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict |
CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
OECD 脆弱国家分类IND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class |
CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
世界银行脆弱和受冲突影响局势状态IND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status |
CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} |
COUNTRY | |
话语权和问责（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
政治稳定和无暴力（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
政府效能（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
腐败控制（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
清廉指数（透明国际）IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
新闻自由得分（RSF）IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
法治（WGI）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
产权和基于规则的治理（CPIA）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
未判决被拘留者，占在押人口比重IND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
企业行贿发生率IND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
监管质量（WGI）IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
CPIA 总体评级（IDA 资源分配指数）IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA 公共部门管理和机构IND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA 公共部门透明度、问责和腐败IND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
收入动员效率（CPIA）IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
预算执行与核定预算的偏差IND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
统计绩效指标总得分IND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
出生登记完整性IND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
距上次人口普查的年数IND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
营商环境得分（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
可便捷使用公共交通的城市人口IND.INF.transport.public_transport_access |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
因灾害受损或被毁的教育设施IND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
ITU GCI 法律措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
ITU GCI 组织措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
数据保护和隐私立法已生效IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
电子政务发展IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
与《仙台框架》一致的国家减少灾害风险战略IND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
拥有与国家战略一致的减少灾害风险战略的地方政府IND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
冲击响应型社会保护准备度IND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY |
05危害
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| 类别 | 领域 | 危害 | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organised and collective violence | 社会、冲突与经济 | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | 社会、冲突与经济 | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | 社会、冲突与经济 | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | 社会、冲突与经济 | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | 社会、冲突与经济 | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | 社会、冲突与经济 | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | 社会、冲突与经济 | Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | 社会、冲突与经济 | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | 社会、冲突与经济 | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | 社会、冲突与经济 | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | 社会、冲突与经济 | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | 社会、冲突与经济 | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | 社会、冲突与经济 | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | 社会、冲突与经济 | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
06展望
How the outlooks for this series are verified
FIG 5 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
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07方法
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
21 methods
地缘政治、冲突与人类安全
Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …
08Users
Who uses it
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
公民社会和非政府组织
Target programmes. Use open profiles. Contribute local evidence.
International financial institutions and development banks
Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.
09报告
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
SR-02- Edition status
- 计划中
- 主题
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
10引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Conflict, fragility and human security series (GRX-SER-SR-02), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-02/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000075.
- Series key
grix:SER.SR-02:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.