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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · Strategic systems series

Conflito, fragilidade e segurança humana

Risco de conflito e escalada, fragilidade, violência organizada, danos a civis e o nexo entre conflito, clima, alimentos e deslocamento.

Page GRX-SER-SR-02Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-02 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de domínio

1

Risco de conflito

Indicadores

140

5 index domains

Hazard families

14

Sociedade, conflito e economia

Métodos

21

Geopolítica, conflito e segurança humana

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
índices de domínio
140
indicators in scope
1
domínios de ameaça
5
client groups

01Escopo

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where is conflict likely to start or escalate?
  2. Which fragile contexts are most exposed to compound shocks?
  3. How does conflict propagate into food insecurity and displacement?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Conflict, fragility and human security index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de domínio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Risco de conflito

    Domain index · IDX · CON
    Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
  2. Conflict, fragility and human security index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-02
    Risco de conflito e escalada, fragilidade, violência organizada, danos a civis e o nexo entre conflito, clima, alimentos e deslocamento.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-02 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Conflict, fragility and human security index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Índice Valor Variação Variação % Intervalo de 90% Classe · probabilidade Tendência Faixa
Risco de conflitoNXS-GRX · CON – – – – –

Domains read: Conflict and security, Governance and institutions, Demography and mobility, Food systems, Social and human development.

04Indicadores

140 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
DEM · 24FOO · 23SOC · 22GOV · 20CON · 19
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Domínio Sub-domain Componente Unidade Níveis Crosswalks
Inflação dos preços dos alimentosIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation MAC Prices and inflation vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT CP
Taxa de desempregoIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
Pontuação do indicador composto LIC-DSF (publicada, referência)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Dívida das famílias, em % do PIBIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Titularidade de conta, adultosIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Remessas pessoais recebidas, em % do PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Comércio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Importações de alimentos, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Comércio marítimo exposto a pontos de estrangulamento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Preparação econômica para investimentos em adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Preparação da governança para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Preparação social para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
Frequência de estresse por seca agrícolaIND.HAZ.drought.agricultural_stress_frequency HAZ Seca hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID INFORM ASI
Exposição ao pico sazonal de ozônioIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Qualidade do ar hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Terras degradadas, em % da área terrestreIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID SDG 15.3.1
Estoques pesqueiros em níveis biologicamente sustentáveisIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share ENV Ocean vulnerability % GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 14.4.1
Valor da produção agrícola dependente da polinização animal, em %IND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Nível de estresse hídricoIND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT Estresse hídrico hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
Índice de dependência de águas renováveis externasIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Área de bacias transfronteiriças com cooperação operacionalIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
População com gastos catastróficos do próprio bolso em saúdeIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Déficit de altura em crianças menores de cinco anosIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025
Emaciação em crianças menores de cinco anosIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026
Anemia em mulheres em idade reprodutivaIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043
Prevalência da subnutriçãoIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS
Número de pessoas subnutridasIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished FOO Availability vulnerability {persons} COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210011
Adequação média do suprimento de energia alimentarIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21010
Variabilidade do suprimento de alimentos per capitaIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability FOO Availability vulnerability kcal/d/{person} COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21031
Índice de dependência das importações de cereaisIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Insegurança alimentar moderada ou grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS
Insegurança alimentar grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS
Custo de uma dieta saudávelIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost FOO Access and affordability vulnerability [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
População sem condições de pagar uma dieta saudávelIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
População na Fase 3 da IPC ou superiorIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population FOO Acute food insecurity impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 IPC Phase 3+
Parcela da população analisada na Fase 3 da IPC ou superiorIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share FOO Acute food insecurity impact % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 IPC Phase 3+
Fase 3 da IPC ou superior, em % da população totalIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total FOO Acute food insecurity impact % COUNTRY
Presença de população na Fase 5 da IPCIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence FOO Acute food insecurity impact {bool} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 IPC Phase 5
Indicador de anomalias nos preços dos alimentos (CPI de alimentos)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly FOO Food prices hazard 1 COUNTRY SDG 2.c.1
Meses com preços de alimentos anormalmente altosIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months FOO Food prices hazard % COUNTRY
Fatura das importações de alimentos, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Valor agregado da agricultura, silvicultura e pesca, em % do PIBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Emprego na agricultura, em % do emprego totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Produtividade de cereaisIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability kg/har COUNTRY WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG
Variabilidade do rendimento de cereais (15 anos)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Captação de água para a agricultura, em % do totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS
Terras de cultivo, em % da área terrestreIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share FOO Agricultural production and dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
Índice de Saúde da Vegetação em terras de cultivoIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
Taxa de pobreza extrema, USD 3,00 por dia (PPC de 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
Taxa de pobreza, USD 4,20 por dia (PPC de 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
Taxa de pobreza, USD 8,30 por dia (PPC de 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
Taxa de pobreza segundo a linha de pobreza nacionalIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
Taxa de pobreza multidimensional (IPM global)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
Índice de GiniIND.SOC.inequality.gini SOC Inequality vulnerability {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
Parcela da renda ou do consumo dos 40 por cento mais pobresIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
Crescimento do consumo ou da renda dos 40 por cento mais pobresIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth SOC Inequality adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
Perda de desenvolvimento humano devida à desigualdadeIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY HDR loss
Média de anos de escolaridadeIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR mys
Anos esperados de escolaridadeIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR eys
Pobreza de aprendizagemIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty SOC Education vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
Taxa de alfabetização de adultosIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy SOC Education adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
Índice de Desigualdade de Gênero (PNUD)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index SOC Gender vulnerability {score} COUNTRY HDR gii
Taxa de participação feminina na força de trabalhoIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Assentos ocupados por mulheres no parlamento nacionalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
População coberta por pelo menos um benefício de proteção socialIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage SOC Social protection coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
Jovens que não trabalham, não estudam nem estão em formaçãoIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
Emprego informal, em % do emprego totalIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Crianças de 5 a 17 anos em trabalho infantilIND.SOC.protection.child_labour SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (PNUD)IND.SOC.development.hdi SOC Desenvolvimento humano adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR hdi
Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Ajustado à Desigualdade (PNUD)IND.SOC.development.ihdi SOC Desenvolvimento humano adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR ihdi
População totalIND.DEM.population.total DEM População context {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July
Densidade populacionalIND.DEM.population.density DEM População context {persons}/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity
Crescimento populacionalIND.DEM.population.growth DEM População vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate
Taxa de fecundidade totalIND.DEM.population.fertility_rate DEM População context {births}/{woman} COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR
Razão de dependência etáriaIND.DEM.structure.age_dependency DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.DPND
População com 65 anos ou mais, em % do totalIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
População com menos de 15 anos, em % do totalIND.DEM.structure.share_under15 DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
População urbana, em % do totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Crescimento da população urbanaIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
População urbana que vive em favelasIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Refugiados por país de origemIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
Refugiados por país de origem, por 100.000 habitantesIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY SDG 10.7.4
Refugiados acolhidos (país de asilo)IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted DEM Forced displacement exposure {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG
Refugiados acolhidos, por 100.000 habitantesIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY
Requerentes de asilo acolhidos, por 100.000 habitantesIND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY UNHCR ASY
Deslocados internos, conflito e violência (estoque)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
Deslocados internos, desastres (estoque)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_total_displacement
Deslocados internos, por 100.000 habitantesIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Novos deslocamentos internos, conflito e violênciaIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
Novos deslocamentos internos, desastresIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS
Novos deslocamentos internos, por 100.000 habitantesIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Migração líquidaIND.DEM.migration.net_migration DEM Migration context {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations
Taxa de migração líquidaIND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rate DEM Migration context /10*3 COUNTRY UN_WPP CNMR
Estoque de migrantes internacionais, em % da populaçãoIND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_share DEM Migration context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS
Mortes notificadas por violência política organizadaIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED fatalities
Mortes em conflitos por 100.000 habitantesIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 SDG 16.1.2
Mortes em combate (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths CON Organised violence hazard {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH
Eventos de violência políticaIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Political violence
Eventos de conflito armadoIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence
Difusão geográfica do conflitoIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion CON Organised violence exposure % COUNTRY ACLED Diffusion
Fragmentação dos atores armadosIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY ACLED Fragmentation
Taxa de homicídios intencionaisIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1
Despesa militar, em % do PIBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
Efetivo das forças armadas, em % da força de trabalhoIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS
Eventos dirigidos contra civisIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events CON Civilian harm hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians
Mortes de civis por violência dirigida, por 100.000 habitantesIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k CON Civilian harm impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 ACLED Danger
Ataques contra a assistência à saúdeIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
Vítimas de minas terrestres e restos explosivos de guerraIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties CON Civilian harm impact {persons} COUNTRY
Tumultos e manifestações violentasIND.CON.peace.riot_events CON Peacefulness hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ACLED Riots
Pontuação geral do Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score CON Peacefulness vulnerability {score} COUNTRY GPI Overall Score
Pontuação do domínio de conflito em curso do Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict CON Peacefulness hazard {score} COUNTRY GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict
Classificação States of Fragility da OCDEIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class CON Fragility vulnerability {class} COUNTRY OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts
Situação de fragilidade e conflito segundo o Banco MundialIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status CON Fragility vulnerability {bool} COUNTRY
Voz e prestação de contas (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Estabilidade política e ausência de violência (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Eficácia governamental (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Controle da corrupção (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Índice de Percepção da Corrupção (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Pontuação de liberdade de imprensa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estado de direito (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Direitos de propriedade e governança baseada em regras (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Presos sem condenação, em % da população carceráriaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidência de suborno entre empresasIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Qualidade regulatória (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Classificação geral CPIA (índice de alocação de recursos da AID)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA: gestão do setor público e instituiçõesIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA: transparência, prestação de contas e corrupção no setor públicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Eficiência da mobilização de receitas (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Desvio da execução orçamentária em relação ao orçamento aprovadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Pontuação geral dos Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Cobertura do registro de nascimentosIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Anos desde o último recenseamento populacionalIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Pontuação do ambiente de negócios (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
População urbana com acesso conveniente ao transporte públicoIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Estabelecimentos de ensino danificados ou destruídos por desastresIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Pilar de medidas jurídicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar de medidas organizacionais do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Legislação de proteção de dados e privacidade em vigorIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Desenvolvimento do governo eletrônicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Estratégia nacional de RRD alinhada com o Quadro de Sendai para a Redução do Risco de DesastresIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Governos locais com estratégias de RRD alinhadas à estratégia nacionalIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
Preparação da proteção social responsiva a choquesIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection CRS Response capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Ameaças

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Sociedade130HAZARDS
1 hazard domains (inner ring) and 14 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Família Domínio Ameaças Count
Organised and collective violence Sociedade, conflito e economia Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Sociedade, conflito e economia Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Sociedade, conflito e economia Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Sociedade, conflito e economia Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Sociedade, conflito e economia Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Sociedade, conflito e economia Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Sociedade, conflito e economia Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Sociedade, conflito e economia Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Sociedade, conflito e economia Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Sociedade, conflito e economia Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Sociedade, conflito e economia Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Sociedade, conflito e economia Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Sociedade, conflito e economia Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Sociedade, conflito e economia Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Perspectiva

How the outlooks for this series are verified

FIG 5 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
0.15
1.4
1
0
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funciona no seu navegador

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
07Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

21 methods

Geopolítica, conflito e segurança humana

Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …

08Users

Who uses it

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Sociedade civil e ONGs

Target programmes. Use open profiles. Contribute local evidence.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

09Relatórios

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-02
Edition status
prevista
Objeto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Conflict, fragility and human security series (GRX-SER-SR-02), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-02/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000075.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-02:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.