Index des Konfliktrisikos
Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
4 components
15 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Shows where organised violence is already deadly and where structural insecurity makes it likely; the penalty for unbalance stops low militarisation masking high deadliness.
- Konflikttote je 100.000 EinwohnerIndicator · IND · /10*5Reported fatalities from organised political violence in the year per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Ereignisse politischer GewaltIndicator · IND · 1Number of events coded as political violence in the year: battles, explosions and remote violence, violence against civilians and mob violence.
- Geografische Ausbreitung von KonfliktenIndicator · IND · %Share of the country’s populated grid cells (about 10 km) recording at least the diffusion threshold of political violence events in the year.
- Fragmentierung bewaffneter AkteureIndicator · IND · 1Number of distinct non-state armed and identity militia groups recorded as active in political violence events in the year.
- Gegen Zivilpersonen gerichtete EreignisseIndicator · IND · 1Number of political violence events in the year in which civilians were the primary target, whatever the event type.
- Zivile Todesopfer gezielter Gewalt, je 100.000 EinwohnerIndicator · IND · /10*5Deaths reported in events where civilians were the primary target, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
- Angriffe auf die GesundheitsversorgungIndicator · IND · 1Number of verified attacks on health facilities, transport, personnel, patients and supplies in the year.
- Opfer von Landminen und explosiven KriegsmunitionsrückständenIndicator · IND · personsPeople killed or injured in the year by landmines, improvised mines, cluster munition remnants and other explosive remnants of war.
- Rate vorsätzlicher TötungsdelikteIndicator · IND · /10*5Victims of unlawful death purposely inflicted by another person, per 100,000 population, excluding deaths in armed conflict.
- Unruhen und gewaltsame DemonstrationenIndicator · IND · 1Number of violent demonstrations and mob-violence events in the year.
- Militärausgaben, Anteil am BIPIndicator · IND · %Current and capital military spending, including armed forces, defence ministries, paramilitary forces and military aid, as a percentage of GDP (SIPRI definition).
- Personal der Streitkräfte, Anteil an den ErwerbspersonenIndicator · IND · %Active-duty military and paramilitary personnel as a percentage of the total labour force.
- Global Peace Index, Gesamtwert (IEP)Indicator · IND · scoreInstitute for Economics and Peace composite of societal safety, ongoing conflict and militarisation, from 1 (most peaceful) to 5, ingested as the published source series.
- Einstufung nach OECD States of FragilityIndicator · IND · classClass assigned in the OECD States of Fragility framework: 2 extremely fragile, 1 other fragile, 0 not listed, ingested as published for each edition.
- Status als fragile und konfliktbetroffene Situation laut WeltbankIndicator · IND · yes or noWhether the country appears on the World Bank’s fiscal-year list of fragile and conflict-affected situations, for conflict or for institutional and social fragility.
- Conflict intensity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 40.0%Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
- Civilian harm sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
- Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
- External conflict and fragility assessments sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
- Index des KonfliktrisikosDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoMazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
- Gefährdungs- und BedrohungsexpositionPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- Fachkundige
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Unsicherheit
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Risk hazard: human (structure only); ACLED Conflict Index (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
4 components, 15 indicators
Conflict intensity sub-index w 2
Composite of conflict fatalities per 100,000, political violence events, geographic diffusion and fragmentation of armed actors.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Konflikttote je 100.000 EinwohnerIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:nis:IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | 40.0% |
Ereignisse politischer GewaltIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Geografische Ausbreitung von KonfliktenIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | % | Class D | derived:acled, ghsl-pop | 20.0% |
Fragmentierung bewaffneter AkteureIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | 1 | Class D | derived:acled | 20.0% |
Civilian harm sub-index w 1.5
Composite of events targeting civilians, civilian fatalities per 100,000, attacks on health care and explosive-ordnance casualties.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gegen Zivilpersonen gerichtete EreignisseIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 20.0% |
Zivile Todesopfer gezielter Gewalt, je 100.000 EinwohnerIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | /10*5 | Class C | derived:acled, ucdp-ged | 40.0% |
Angriffe auf die GesundheitsversorgungIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | 1 | Class B | who-surveillance-system-attacks-health-care, insecurity-insight | 20.0% |
Opfer von Landminen und explosiven KriegsmunitionsrückständenIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | {persons} | Class C | landmine-monitor, unmas | 20.0% |
Societal insecurity and militarisation sub-index w 1
Composite of the homicide rate, riots, military expenditure relative to GDP and armed-forces personnel.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Rate vorsätzlicher TötungsdelikteIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | /10*5 | Class B | unodc-homicide, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Unruhen und gewaltsame DemonstrationenIND.CON.peace.riot_events | 1 | Class C | acled | 25.0% |
Militärausgaben, Anteil am BIPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | % | Class B | sipri-milex, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Personal der Streitkräfte, Anteil an den ErwerbspersonenIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | % | Class B | iiss-military-balance, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
External conflict and fragility assessments sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the Global Peace Index score, the OECD fragility class and World Bank FCS status, each ingested as published.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Peace Index, Gesamtwert (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | {score} | Class C | iep-global-peace-index | 33.3% |
Einstufung nach OECD States of FragilityIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | {class} | Class C | oecd-states-of-fragility | 33.3% |
Status als fragile und konfliktbetroffene Situation laut WeltbankIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | {bool} | Class C | wb-fcs-list | 33.3% |
Konflikt und Sicherheit
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.
| Sub-domain | Indikatoren |
|---|---|
| Organised violence | 10 |
| Civilian harm | 4 |
| Peacefulness | 3 |
| Fragility | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): ACLED Conflict Index; Global Peace Index 2026; OECD States of Fragility 2025.
All 19 conflict and security indicators
| Indikator | Domäne | Sub-domain | Komponente | Einheit | Ebenen | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gemeldete Todesopfer organisierter politischer GewaltIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
Konflikttote je 100.000 EinwohnerIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
Kampfbezogene Todesfälle (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
Ereignisse politischer GewaltIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
Ereignisse bewaffneter KonflikteIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
Geografische Ausbreitung von KonfliktenIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
Fragmentierung bewaffneter AkteureIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
Rate vorsätzlicher TötungsdelikteIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
Militärausgaben, Anteil am BIPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
Personal der Streitkräfte, Anteil an den ErwerbspersonenIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
Gegen Zivilpersonen gerichtete EreignisseIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
Zivile Todesopfer gezielter Gewalt, je 100.000 EinwohnerIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
Angriffe auf die GesundheitsversorgungIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Opfer von Landminen und explosiven KriegsmunitionsrückständenIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
Unruhen und gewaltsame DemonstrationenIND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
Global Peace Index, Gesamtwert (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
Global Peace Index, Wert im Bereich andauernde Konflikte (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
Einstufung nach OECD States of FragilityIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
Status als fragile und konfliktbetroffene Situation laut WeltbankIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY |
Conflict risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Vorherige Ausgabe
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Gekoppeltes Gesamtmaß
- –
- Kopplungswert S
- –
- Pulse, letzte Woche
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Methode
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Ziehungen
- 1,000
Noch keine veröffentlichten Werte. Die erste Ausgabe zeichnet hier den Verlauf mit Intervallband und Klassengrenzen.
Country values
- Kacheln
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/con/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Beobachtungsschlüssel
nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
ACLED | 7 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
SDG | 2 |
GPI | 1 |
OECD_FRAGILITY | 1 |
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Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
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Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
Methodik, Struktur und Definitionen des Global Risks Index sind ein vorbereitender Arbeitsentwurf (2026), der zur Prüfung und Stellungnahme und nicht zur Umsetzung verbreitet wird. Kein Wert erscheint, bevor eine Ausgabe aus einem geregelten Evidenzschnitt veröffentlicht ist; die Werte tragen dann Intervalle, Klassen, Quellen und ihren Korrekturweg. Die Simulatoren wenden die veröffentlichten Methoden auf Zahlen an, die Sie wählen, und zeigen niemals einen NXS-GRX-Wert.
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NXS-GRX ist eine Forschungs- und Risikoanalyseinformation. Es ist kein Kredit- oder ESG-Rating und verwendet keine Ratingskala, kein Referenzwert für Finanzinstrumente, keine amtliche Statistik, keine Notfallwarnung oder amtliche Einstufung und keine Beratung. Es darf nicht zur Bewertung natürlicher Personen verwendet werden. Risikoklassen sind Bänder auf einer veröffentlichten Skala, niemals Rangfolgen von Ländern oder Personen.
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La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.