The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · Exponential technology series
Tecnologías convergentes
Riesgos que surgen cuando se combinan tecnologías de frontera (IA con biotecnología, autonomía con ciberseguridad, cómputo con energía) y superan la gobernanza de una sola tecnología.
Page GRX-SER-XT-20Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-20 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de dominio
4
Health security risk · Governance weakness · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.
Indicadores
102
4 index domains
Hazard families
20
Frontier and exponential technology · Systemic and compound events.
Métodos
77
Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.
4
índices temáticos
102
indicators in scope
2
ámbitos de amenaza
4
client groups
01Alcance
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which technology combinations create new hazard classes?
- Where does convergence outrun governance?
- What early signals should be watched?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Converging technologies index is built
Graph8 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de dominio
02Series index
03Readings
100%
Índice
-
Riesgo de seguridad sanitariaDomain index · IDX · HLTINFORM-style aggregation, on 0 to 10, of epidemic and AMR hazard, disease burden and undernutrition against health-system and IHR capacity, each component oriented by its own polarity.
-
Debilidad de la gobernanzaDomain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
-
Riesgo cibernéticoDomain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
Riesgo de concentración tecnológicaDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
Converging technologies indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-20Riesgos que surgen cuando se combinan tecnologías de frontera (IA con biotecnología, autonomía con ciberseguridad, cómputo con energía) y superan la gobernanza de una sola tecnología.
-
Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Sin ejecutarEn cursoCompletado
03Índices
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Converging technologies index, world
–
Los valores se publican con la edición; el intervalo, la clase y la variación aparecen aquí.
| Índice | Valor | Variación | Variación % | Intervalo del 90 % | Clase · probabilidad | Tendencia | Rango |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Riesgo de seguridad sanitariaNXS-GRX · HLT |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Debilidad de la gobernanzaNXS-GRX · GOV |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Riesgo cibernéticoNXS-GRX · CYB |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Riesgo de concentración tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Health, Governance and institutions.
04Indicadores
102 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicador | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidad | Niveles | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puntuación del indicador compuesto del LIC-DSF (publicada, referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Preparación económica para la inversión en adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Preparación de la gobernanza para la adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Días de calor húmedo peligroso al añoIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501 |
Episodios de exposición a olas de calor por personaIND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
Población expuesta al calor extremo, proporciónIND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share |
HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
Exposición a PM2.5, media ponderada por poblaciónIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure |
ENV | Calidad del aire | hazard | ug/m3 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD |
Población expuesta por encima de la directriz de la OMS sobre PM2.5, proporciónIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share |
ENV | Calidad del aire | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS |
Exposición estacional máxima al ozonoIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure |
ENV | Calidad del aire | hazard | [ppb] |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Población que utiliza agua potable gestionada de forma seguraIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD |
Población que utiliza al menos agua potable básicaIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS |
Población que utiliza saneamiento gestionado de forma seguraIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD |
Población con instalaciones básicas para el lavado de manosIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1 |
Tasa de dependencia del agua renovable externaIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Superficie de cuencas transfronterizas con cooperación operativaIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
Tasa de mortalidad de menores de cinco añosIND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007 |
Tasa de mortalidad neonatalIND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2 |
Razón de mortalidad maternaIND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026 |
Esperanza de vida al nacerIND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001 |
Mortalidad prematura por las principales enfermedades no transmisiblesIND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070 |
Incidencia de la tuberculosisIND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020 |
Incidencia de la malariaIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA |
Incidencia del VIHIND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS |
Médicos por cada 1,000 habitantesIND.HLT.system.physician_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1 |
Personal de enfermería y partería por cada 1,000 habitantesIND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1 |
Camas de hospital por cada 1,000 habitantesIND.HLT.system.hospital_beds |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102 |
Índice de cobertura de servicios de la CSUIND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD |
Población con gastos catastróficos de bolsillo en saludIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
Gasto de bolsillo, porcentaje del gasto corriente en saludIND.HLT.system.oop_share |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011 |
Gasto corriente en salud, porcentaje del PIBIND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS |
Cobertura de vacunación DTP3IND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1 |
Cobertura de la segunda dosis de la vacuna contra el sarampiónIND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1 |
Partos atendidos por personal sanitario cualificadoIND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance |
HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2 |
Tiempo de viaje hasta el centro de salud más cercanoIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Puntuación de capacidades básicas del RSI (SPAR)IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018 |
Capacidad de laboratorio del RSI (SPAR C4)IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1 |
Capacidad de vigilancia del RSI (SPAR C5)IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2 |
Capacidad de gestión de emergencias sanitarias del RSI (SPAR C7)IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1 |
Capacidad de comunicación de riesgos del RSI (SPAR C10)IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication |
HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5 |
Frecuencia de eventos epidémicosIND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Casos de cólera notificados, por cada 100,000 habitantesIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001 |
Infecciones del torrente sanguíneo por SARMIND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2 |
Infecciones del torrente sanguíneo por E. coli resistente a cefalosporinas de tercera generaciónIND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream |
HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2 |
Retraso del crecimiento en menores de cinco añosIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025 |
Emaciación en menores de cinco añosIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026 |
Anemia en mujeres en edad reproductivaIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women |
HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043 |
Escaños ocupados por mujeres en el parlamento nacionalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
Población de 65 años o más, porcentaje del totalIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
Ataques contra la atención sanitariaIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Voz y rendición de cuentas (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
Estabilidad política y ausencia de violencia (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
Eficacia del gobierno (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
Control de la corrupción (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
Índice de Percepción de la Corrupción (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Puntuación de libertad de prensa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Estado de derecho (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
Derechos de propiedad y gobernanza basada en normas (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
Detenidos sin condena, porcentaje de la población penitenciariaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
Incidencia del soborno entre las empresasIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
Calidad regulatoria (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
Calificación general de la CPIA (índice de asignación de recursos de la AIF)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA: gestión del sector público e institucionesIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA: transparencia, rendición de cuentas y corrupción en el sector públicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
Eficiencia de la movilización de ingresos (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
Desviación de la ejecución presupuestaria respecto del presupuesto aprobadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
Puntuación general de los Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
Exhaustividad del registro de nacimientosIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
Años desde el último censo de poblaciónIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
Puntuación del entorno empresarial (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Población que depende principalmente de combustibles y tecnologías limpios para cocinarIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking |
ENE | Acceso | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Personas que usan InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
Redundancia de rutas de conectividad internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Horas de interrupción de Internet a escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
Instalaciones críticas con energía de respaldo para 72 horasIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Instalaciones vitales en zonas de alta amenaza, proporciónIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Centros de salud dañados o destruidos por desastresIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
Puntuación del Global Cybersecurity Index de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
Nivel en el Global Cybersecurity Index de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier |
CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
Pilar de medidas jurídicas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
Pilar de medidas técnicas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
Pilar de medidas organizativas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
Pilar de medidas de desarrollo de capacidades del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development |
CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
Pilar de medidas de cooperación del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
Equipo nacional de respuesta a incidentes informáticos en funcionamientoIND.CYB.capability.national_cert |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
Legislación vigente de protección de datos y privacidadIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
Ciberincidentes significativos por millón de habitantesIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate |
CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a |
COUNTRY | |
Ciberincidentes que interrumpen servicios críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Valor añadido de los servicios TIC, porcentaje del PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
Desarrollo del gobierno electrónicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Gasto interno bruto en I+D, porcentaje del PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
Investigadores por millón de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
Exportaciones de alta tecnología, porcentaje de las exportaciones de manufacturasIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de semiconductoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de infraestructura en la nubeIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Capacidad de cómputo de IA bajo control extranjero o de un único proveedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | Inteligencia artificial | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de modelos fundacionalesIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | Inteligencia artificial | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Supervisión de la bioseguridad y la bioprotección de los laboratorios de alta contenciónIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | Biotecnología | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Estrategia nacional de RRD alineada con el Marco de Sendai para la Reducción del Riesgo de DesastresIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
Gobiernos locales con estrategias de RRD alineadas con la estrategia nacionalIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
Población a menos de 15 minutos de los servicios de emergenciaIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
05Amenazas
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Familia | Dominio | Amenazas | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotecnología y biología sintética | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Tecnologías de intervención climática | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Supply-chain and flow disruption | Eventos sistémicos y compuestos | Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … | 17 |
| Cascading failure | Eventos sistémicos y compuestos | Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … | 10 |
| Compound and multi-hazard events | Eventos sistémicos y compuestos | Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … | 9 |
| Structural fragility of interconnected systems | Eventos sistémicos y compuestos | Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … | 11 |
06Métodos
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
56 methods
Ciber, IA y tecnologías de frontera
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
21 methods
Redes, dependencia y riesgo sistémico
Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Universities and research
Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.
08Informes
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-20- Edition status
- prevista
- Asunto
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
09Citar
Citar y reutilizar
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Converging technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-20), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-20/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000107.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-20:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.HLT.security.health_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Estado
La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.
Lo que NXS-GRX no es
NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.
Instituciones y fuentes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.