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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-11 · Strategic systems series

Integridade da informação e coesão social

Desordem informacional, polarização, confiança e coesão como amplificadores de todos os outros riscos.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-SR-11Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-11 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de domínio

4

Socio-economic vulnerability · Conflict risk · Governance weakness · Cyber risk.

Indicadores

105

4 index domains

Hazard families

20

Society, conflict and economy · Information and cyber-physical systems.

Métodos

38

Policy, regulation and governance · Geopolitics, conflict and human security.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
4
índices de domínio
105
indicators in scope
2
domínios de ameaça
5
client groups

01Escopo

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where does low trust weaken crisis response?
  2. How does information disorder spread in a crisis?
  3. Which societies are most polarised under stress?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Information integrity and social cohesion index is built

Graph8 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de domínio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Vulnerabilidade socioeconômica

    Domain index · IDX · SOC
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of poverty and deprivation, inequality, human capital deficit, the social protection gap and gender inequality.
  2. Risco de conflito

    Domain index · IDX · CON
    Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
  3. Fragilidade da governança

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  4. Risco cibernético

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  5. Information integrity and social cohesion index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-11
    Desordem informacional, polarização, confiança e coesão como amplificadores de todos os outros riscos.
  6. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  8. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-11 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Information integrity and social cohesion index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Índice Valor Variação Variação % Intervalo de 90% Classe · probabilidade Tendência Faixa
Vulnerabilidade socioeconômicaNXS-GRX · SOC – – – – –
Risco de conflitoNXS-GRX · CON – – – – –
Fragilidade da governançaNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Risco cibernéticoNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –

Domains read: Governance and institutions, Social and human development, Conflict and security, Cyber and digital.

04Indicadores

105 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
SOC · 22GOV · 20CON · 19CYB · 13
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Domínio Sub-domain Componente Unidade Níveis Crosswalks
Taxa de desempregoIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
Pontuação do indicador composto LIC-DSF (publicada, referência)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Dívida das famílias, em % do PIBIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Titularidade de conta, adultosIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Comércio marítimo exposto a pontos de estrangulamento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Preparação econômica para investimentos em adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Preparação da governança para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Preparação social para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
Índice de dependência de águas renováveis externasIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Área de bacias transfronteiriças com cooperação operacionalIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
População com gastos catastróficos do próprio bolso em saúdeIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Custo de uma dieta saudávelIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost FOO Access and affordability vulnerability [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
População sem condições de pagar uma dieta saudávelIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
Emprego na agricultura, em % do emprego totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Taxa de pobreza extrema, USD 3,00 por dia (PPC de 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
Taxa de pobreza, USD 4,20 por dia (PPC de 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
Taxa de pobreza, USD 8,30 por dia (PPC de 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
Taxa de pobreza segundo a linha de pobreza nacionalIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
Taxa de pobreza multidimensional (IPM global)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
Índice de GiniIND.SOC.inequality.gini SOC Inequality vulnerability {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
Parcela da renda ou do consumo dos 40 por cento mais pobresIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
Crescimento do consumo ou da renda dos 40 por cento mais pobresIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth SOC Inequality adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
Perda de desenvolvimento humano devida à desigualdadeIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY HDR loss
Média de anos de escolaridadeIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR mys
Anos esperados de escolaridadeIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR eys
Pobreza de aprendizagemIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty SOC Education vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
Taxa de alfabetização de adultosIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy SOC Education adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
Índice de Desigualdade de Gênero (PNUD)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index SOC Gender vulnerability {score} COUNTRY HDR gii
Taxa de participação feminina na força de trabalhoIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Assentos ocupados por mulheres no parlamento nacionalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
População coberta por pelo menos um benefício de proteção socialIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage SOC Social protection coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
Jovens que não trabalham, não estudam nem estão em formaçãoIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
Emprego informal, em % do emprego totalIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Crianças de 5 a 17 anos em trabalho infantilIND.SOC.protection.child_labour SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (PNUD)IND.SOC.development.hdi SOC Desenvolvimento humano adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR hdi
Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Ajustado à Desigualdade (PNUD)IND.SOC.development.ihdi SOC Desenvolvimento humano adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR ihdi
População urbana que vive em favelasIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Refugiados por país de origemIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
Refugiados por país de origem, por 100.000 habitantesIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY SDG 10.7.4
Deslocados internos, conflito e violência (estoque)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
Deslocados internos, por 100.000 habitantesIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Novos deslocamentos internos, conflito e violênciaIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
Novos deslocamentos internos, por 100.000 habitantesIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Mortes notificadas por violência política organizadaIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED fatalities
Mortes em conflitos por 100.000 habitantesIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 SDG 16.1.2
Mortes em combate (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths CON Organised violence hazard {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH
Eventos de violência políticaIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Political violence
Eventos de conflito armadoIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence
Difusão geográfica do conflitoIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion CON Organised violence exposure % COUNTRY ACLED Diffusion
Fragmentação dos atores armadosIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY ACLED Fragmentation
Taxa de homicídios intencionaisIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1
Despesa militar, em % do PIBIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
Efetivo das forças armadas, em % da força de trabalhoIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS
Eventos dirigidos contra civisIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events CON Civilian harm hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians
Mortes de civis por violência dirigida, por 100.000 habitantesIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k CON Civilian harm impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 ACLED Danger
Ataques contra a assistência à saúdeIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
Vítimas de minas terrestres e restos explosivos de guerraIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties CON Civilian harm impact {persons} COUNTRY
Tumultos e manifestações violentasIND.CON.peace.riot_events CON Peacefulness hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ACLED Riots
Pontuação geral do Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score CON Peacefulness vulnerability {score} COUNTRY GPI Overall Score
Pontuação do domínio de conflito em curso do Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict CON Peacefulness hazard {score} COUNTRY GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict
Classificação States of Fragility da OCDEIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class CON Fragility vulnerability {class} COUNTRY OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts
Situação de fragilidade e conflito segundo o Banco MundialIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status CON Fragility vulnerability {bool} COUNTRY
Voz e prestação de contas (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Estabilidade política e ausência de violência (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Eficácia governamental (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Controle da corrupção (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Índice de Percepção da Corrupção (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Pontuação de liberdade de imprensa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estado de direito (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Direitos de propriedade e governança baseada em regras (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Presos sem condenação, em % da população carceráriaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidência de suborno entre empresasIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Qualidade regulatória (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Classificação geral CPIA (índice de alocação de recursos da AID)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA: gestão do setor público e instituiçõesIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA: transparência, prestação de contas e corrupção no setor públicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Eficiência da mobilização de receitas (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Desvio da execução orçamentária em relação ao orçamento aprovadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Pontuação geral dos Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Cobertura do registro de nascimentosIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Anos desde o último recenseamento populacionalIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Pontuação do ambiente de negócios (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
População urbana com acesso conveniente ao transporte públicoIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Pessoas que usam a internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundância das rotas de conectividade internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Horas de interrupção da internet em escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Estabelecimentos de ensino danificados ou destruídos por desastresIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Pontuação no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Nível no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar de medidas jurídicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar de medidas técnicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar de medidas organizacionais do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar de medidas de desenvolvimento de capacidades do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar de medidas de cooperação do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Equipe nacional de resposta a incidentes de computador em operaçãoIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Legislação de proteção de dados e privacidade em vigorIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Incidentes cibernéticos significativos por milhão de habitantesIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Incidentes cibernéticos que interrompem serviços críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valor agregado dos serviços de TIC, em % do PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Desenvolvimento do governo eletrônicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de infraestrutura em nuvemIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacidade de computação de IA sob controle estrangeiro ou de um único provedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Estratégia nacional de RRD alinhada com o Quadro de Sendai para a Redução do Risco de DesastresIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Governos locais com estratégias de RRD alinhadas à estratégia nacionalIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
Preparação da proteção social responsiva a choquesIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection CRS Response capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Ameaças

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformaçãoSociedade178HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 20 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Família Domínio Ameaças Count
Organised and collective violence Sociedade, conflito e economia Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Sociedade, conflito e economia Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Sociedade, conflito e economia Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Sociedade, conflito e economia Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Sociedade, conflito e economia Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Sociedade, conflito e economia Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Sociedade, conflito e economia Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Sociedade, conflito e economia Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Sociedade, conflito e economia Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Sociedade, conflito e economia Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Sociedade, conflito e economia Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Sociedade, conflito e economia Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Sociedade, conflito e economia Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Sociedade, conflito e economia Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
Malicious compromise Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
06Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

17 methods

Políticas, regulação e governança

Scenario Counterfactual · Regulatory Change Risk · Policy Uncertainty · Policy Effectiveness · Implementation Gap · Regulatory Exposure · Compliance Obligation Mapping …

21 methods

Geopolítica, conflito e segurança humana

Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Imprensa

Explain risk with intervals and classes. Embed charts and maps with attribution.

Sociedade civil e ONGs

Target programmes. Use open profiles. Contribute local evidence.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

Citizens and communities

Read the risk context of a place. Understand what the numbers mean and do not mean.

08Relatórios

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-11
Edition status
prevista
Objeto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Information integrity and social cohesion series (GRX-SER-SR-11), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-11/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000084.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-11:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.SOC.poverty.socioeconomic_vulnerability:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Perfis de países Todas as séries

Situação

A metodologia, a estrutura e as definições do The Global Risks Index constituem um projeto de trabalho preparatório (2026), divulgado para revisão e comentários e não para implementação. Nenhum valor aparece até que uma edição seja publicada a partir de um corte de evidências governado; os valores passam então a ter intervalos, classes, fontes e o respectivo percurso de correção. Os simuladores executam os métodos publicados sobre números que você escolhe e nunca mostram um valor do NXS-GRX.

O que o NXS-GRX não é

O NXS-GRX é informação de pesquisa e de análise de risco. Não é rating de crédito ou ESG e não usa escala de rating, não é referência para instrumentos financeiros, não é estatística oficial, não é alerta de emergência nem classificação oficial e não é aconselhamento. Não deve ser usado para avaliar pessoas físicas. As classes de risco são faixas em uma escala publicada, nunca classificações de países ou pessoas.

Instituições e fontes

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Cada valor inclui a atribuição das suas fontes, que mantêm as suas próprias licenças. Os nomes externos são citados apenas para fins de interoperabilidade. Os textos de autoria da Nexus destinam-se a ser publicados sob CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.