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Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-DEM · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

Îndeksa zexta koçberkirinê

Weighted aggregation of displacement outflow, refugee hosting pressure, age-structure pressure and unplanned urbanisation, on 0 to 10.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-DEMEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.DEM.displacement.displacement_pressureValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Nediyarî

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Avahî

4 components

10 leaf indicators

Vegirtin

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
10
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
4
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

One view of the demographic and mobility strain a country carries; the sub-indices stay visible so outflow and hosting pressure are never confused.

computation
How Displacement pressure is computed
Graph17 nodes
Grafîk
01Nîşander
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pillar
05Pêkhatî
100%
Lîste
  1. Penaber li gorî welatê eslê, ji her 100,000 kesî
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Refugees originating from the country at year end per 100,000 of the country’s mid-year population.
  2. Koçberên navxweyî, ji her 100,000 kesî
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Sum of the year-end conflict and disaster displacement stocks per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
  3. Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, ji her 100,000 kesî
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Conflict and disaster displacement movements of the year combined, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
  4. Penaberên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesî
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Refugees residing in the country at year end per 100,000 of the host’s mid-year population.
  5. Daxwazkarên penaberiyê yên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesî
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    People in the country whose claim for international protection is pending at year end, per 100,000 of the host population.
  6. Rêjeya girêdayîbûna temenî
    Indicator · IND · %
    People younger than 15 or older than 64 per hundred people aged 15 to 64.
  7. Nifûsa 65 salî û zêdetir, para tevahiyê
    Indicator · IND · %
    Residents aged 65 years or more as a percentage of the mid-year population.
  8. Mezinbûna nifûsê
    Indicator · IND · %
    Annual exponential rate of change of the mid-year population, in percent.
  9. Mezinbûna nifûsa bajarî
    Indicator · IND · %
    Annual exponential rate of change of the urban population, in percent.
  10. Nifûsa bajarî ya li taxên xizan dijî
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the urban population living in households that lack one or more of improved water, improved sanitation, durable housing, sufficient living area or secure tenure.
  11. Displacement outflow sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 50.0%
    Composite of refugees originating from the country, the internal displacement stock and new internal displacements, each relative to population.
  12. Refugee hosting pressure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 25.0%
    Composite of refugees and asylum-seekers hosted, each per 100,000 of the host population.
  13. Age-structure pressure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 12.5%
    Composite of the age dependency ratio, the share aged 65 and over and population growth.
  14. Unplanned urbanisation sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 12.5%
    Composite of urban population growth and the share of urban residents living in slums.
  15. Îndeksa zexta koçberkirinê
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted aggregation of displacement outflow, refugee hosting pressure, age-structure pressure and unplanned urbanisation, on 0 to 10.
  16. Lawaziya mirov û sîsteman
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  17. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Not runDi pêvajoyê deQediya
FIG 2. 10 indicators, 4 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate displacement pressure on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
25
1
–
di geroka te de dixebite
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Rêbaz

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
pispor
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Nediyarî
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; INFORM Risk 2024 vulnerability dimension (structure only)
Pir kêm0.0 heta < 2.0
Kêm2.0 heta < 3.5
Navîn3.5 heta < 5.0
Bilind5.0 heta < 6.5
Pir bilind6.5 heta 10.0
04Components

4 components, 10 indicators

Displacement outflow sub-index w 2

Composite of refugees originating from the country, the internal displacement stock and new internal displacements, each relative to population.

NîşanderYekîneDelîlÇavkanîPar
Penaber li gorî welatê eslê, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k/10*5Class Bderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin33.3%
Koçberên navxweyî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k/10*5Class Cderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict, derived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster33.3%
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k/10*5Class Cderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict, derived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster33.3%

Refugee hosting pressure sub-index w 1

Composite of refugees and asylum-seekers hosted, each per 100,000 of the host population.

NîşanderYekîneDelîlÇavkanîPar
Penaberên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k/10*5Class Bderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted66.7%
Daxwazkarên penaberiyê yên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k/10*5Class Bunhcr-refugee-data-finder33.3%

Age-structure pressure sub-index w 0.5

Composite of the age dependency ratio, the share aged 65 and over and population growth.

NîşanderYekîneDelîlÇavkanîPar
Rêjeya girêdayîbûna temenîIND.DEM.structure.age_dependency%Class Awb-wdi, un-wpp33.3%
Nifûsa 65 salî û zêdetir, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus%Class Awb-wdi, un-wpp33.3%
Mezinbûna nifûsêIND.DEM.population.growth%Class Awb-wdi, un-wpp33.3%

Unplanned urbanisation sub-index w 0.5

Composite of urban population growth and the share of urban residents living in slums.

NîşanderYekîneDelîlÇavkanîPar
Mezinbûna nifûsa bajarîIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth%Class Bwb-wdi, un-wup50.0%
Nifûsa bajarî ya li taxên xizan dijîIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share%Class Cun-habitat-urban-indicators, wb-wdi50.0%
05Qad

Demography and mobility

Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement.

Sub-domainNîşander
Nifûs4
Age structure3
Urbanisation3
Forced displacement11
Migration3

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN WPP; UNHCR; IDMC.

06Nîşander

All 24 demography and mobility indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
DEM · 24
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
NîşanderQadSub-domainComponentYekîneAstCrosswalks
Tevahiya nifûsêIND.DEM.population.totalDEMNifûscontext{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDWB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July
Çirbûna nifûsêIND.DEM.population.densityDEMNifûscontext{persons}/km2COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDWB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity
Mezinbûna nifûsêIND.DEM.population.growthDEMNifûsvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate
Rêjeya giştî ya zayînêIND.DEM.population.fertility_rateDEMNifûscontext{births}/{woman}COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR
Rêjeya girêdayîbûna temenîIND.DEM.structure.age_dependencyDEMAge structurevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.DPND
Nifûsa 65 salî û zêdetir, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.structure.share_65plusDEMAge structurevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
Nifûsa di bin 15 salî de, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.structure.share_under15DEMAge structurevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
Nifûsa bajarî, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_shareDEMUrbanisationcontext%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Mezinbûna nifûsa bajarîIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growthDEMUrbanisationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Nifûsa bajarî ya li taxên xizan dijîIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_shareDEMUrbanisationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Penaber li gorî welatê eslêIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_originDEMForced displacementimpact{persons}COUNTRYUNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
Penaber li gorî welatê eslê, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100kDEMForced displacementimpact/10*5COUNTRYSDG 10.7.4
Penaberên mazûvanîkirî (welatê penaberiyê)IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hostedDEMForced displacementexposure{persons}COUNTRYUNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG
Penaberên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100kDEMForced displacementexposure/10*5COUNTRY
Daxwazkarên penaberiyê yên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100kDEMForced displacementexposure/10*5COUNTRYUNHCR ASY
Koçberên navxweyî, pevçûn û tundî (stok)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflictDEMForced displacementimpact{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
Koçberên navxweyî, karesat (stok)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disasterDEMForced displacementimpact{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC disaster_total_displacement
Koçberên navxweyî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100kDEMForced displacementimpact/10*5COUNTRY
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, pevçûn û tundîIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflictDEMForced displacementimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, karesatIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disasterDEMForced displacementimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100kDEMForced displacementimpact/10*5COUNTRY
Koçberiya netIND.DEM.migration.net_migrationDEMMigrationcontext{persons}COUNTRYWB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations
Rêjeya koçberiya netIND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rateDEMMigrationcontext/10*3COUNTRYUN_WPP CNMR
Stoka koçberên navneteweyî, para nifûsêIND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_shareDEMMigrationcontext%COUNTRYWB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS
07Quote

Displacement pressure index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · DEM · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Displacement pressure index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Previous edition
–
Range since 2016
–
Coupled composite
–
Coupling score S
–
Pulse, latest week
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Rêbaz
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws
1,000
Displacement pressure index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Afrîka54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Amerîka35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Asya48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Ewropa44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Okyanûsya14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Hîn tu guherîn tune. Guherînên ji çapa berê ve ji çapa duyem û pê ve li vir têne rêzkirin, bi nîşaneyên ku ew ajotine.
08Nirx

Country values

FIG 5 · Displacement pressure index: countries (values when released)
Nexşe tê barkirin
AndoraAntîgua û BarbûdaBehreynBarbadosKomorKabo VerdeDomînîkaMîkronezya (Dewletên Federal ên)GrenadaKirîbatîSaint Kitts û NevisSanta LûsyaLîhtenştaynMonakoMaldîvGiravên MarşalMaltaMorîsNaûrûPalaûSingapûrSan MarînoSao Tome û PrînsîpeSeyşelTongaTûvalûKursiya PîrozSaint Vincent û GrenadînSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/dem/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Rêbera çavdêriyê
nis:IDX.DEM.displacement.displacement_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Rêze

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-06Global DevelopmentPoverty, inequality, human development, demographic pressure and displacement as the ground on which shocks become losses. GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk. SR-06Displacement and demographic changeForced displacement, migration pressure, ageing, youth bulges and urbanisation as risk multipliers.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI5
SDG2
UNHCR1
UN_WPP1
11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Jêgirtin

Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Displacement pressure index (GRX-IDX-DEM), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/displacement-pressure/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000117.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Rewş

Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.

NXS-GRX çi nîne

NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.

Sazî û çavkanî

Nexus Consortium ji aliyê sê saziyên ne-qezencî yên serbixwe ve tê parastin: Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), bi rêya GCRI US li Waşington, DC û GCRI Canada li Ontarioyê, bi GCRI Canada wekî Saziya Pêşeng, Sekreteryaya Konsorsiyûmê û rêxistina peymanê ya pêşeng; Global Risks Forum (GRF); û Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Dabînkerên teknolojî, binesazî û xizmetê bi Konsorsiyûmê re ji dûr ve li gorî peymanên nivîskî dixebitin, wek her aliyekî din ê derve di modela giştî-taybet-gerstêrkê de, û di parastina wê de tu rola wan tune.

Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.