The Global Risks Index · SR-06 · Strategic systems series
Koçberkirin û guherîna demografîk
Forced displacement, migration pressure, ageing, youth bulges and urbanisation as risk multipliers.
Page GRX-SER-SR-06Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-06 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Îndeksên waran
1
Displacement pressure
Nîşander
129
4 index domains
Hazard families
14
Civak, nakokî û aborî
Rêbaz
40
Vulnerability, fragility and resilience · Geopolitics, conflict and human security.
1
domain indices
129
indicators in scope
1
hazard domains
4
client groups
01Çarçove
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Where will displacement pressure rise?
- How do demographic shifts change exposure?
- Which hosting systems are near capacity?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Displacement and demographic change index is built
Graph5 nodes
Grafîk
01Îndeksên waran
02Series index
03Readings
100%
Lîste
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Displacement pressureDomain index · IDX · DEMWeighted aggregation of displacement outflow, refugee hosting pressure, age-structure pressure and unplanned urbanisation, on 0 to 10.
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Displacement and demographic change indexSeries index · SERIES · SR-06Forced displacement, migration pressure, ageing, youth bulges and urbanisation as risk multipliers.
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Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runDi pêvajoyê deQediya
03Îndeks
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · SR-06 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Displacement and demographic change index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
| Navnîşan | Nirx | Guhertin | Guhertin % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Meyl | Navber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Displacement pressureNXS-GRX · DEM |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Demography and mobility, Social and human development, Conflict and security, Climate.
04Nîşander
129 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Nîşander | Qad | Sub-domain | Component | Yekîne | Ast | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rêjeya bêkariyêIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate |
MAC | Labour market | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT |
Deynê malbatan, para GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp |
FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSHG_PT |
Xwedîtiya hesabê, mezinIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership |
FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2 |
Rûbirûbûna bankan bi sektorên bi karbona zêdeIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure |
FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Deyndayîna bankan a li ber xetera avhewayî ya fîzîkî ya bilindIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending |
FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp |
ECO | Bazirganî | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Germbûna rûyê erdê ji serdema berî pîşesaziyêIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial |
CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
Guherîna barana salaneIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change |
CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Rêjeya bilindbûna nisbî ya asta deryayêIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend |
CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
Germtirîn roja salê (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Para rojên germ (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Guherîna rojên pir germ (35 °C an zêdetir)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Dirêjahiya demên germ (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Şiltirîn roja salê (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Şiltirîn pênc rojên salê (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Barana ji rojên pir şil (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Dirêjtirîn dema hişk (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % |
SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
Germbûna pêşbînîkirî ji serdema berî pîşesaziyêIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Guherîna pêşbînîkirî ya germahiya roja herî germIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Guherîna pêşbînîkirî ya barana pênc rojên herî şilIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Bilindbûna nisbî ya pêşbînîkirî ya asta deryayêIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
Nifûsa li jêr asta lehiya peravê ya 100 salî ya pêşerojê, paraIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share |
CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
Tevahiya emîsyonên gazên serayê bêyî LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
Emîsyonên gazên serayê ji bo her kesîIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
Tundiya karbonê ya GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a |
PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
Kirêyên sotemeniyên fosîl, para GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
Hinardekirina sotemeniyê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Sûbvansiyonên eşkere yên sotemeniyên fosîl, para GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
Armanca emîsyonan a NDC 2030 ji bo tevahiya aboriyêIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition |
CLI | Transition exposure | response | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Plana neteweyî ya lihevhatinê hatiye şandinIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Amadebûna aborî ji bo veberhênana lihevhatinêIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Amadebûna rêveberiyê ji bo lihevhatinêIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Amadebûna civakî ji bo lihevhatinêIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
Darayiya navneteweyî ya lihevhatinê ya wergirtî ji bo her kesîIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] |
COUNTRY | |
Nifûsa li jêr bilindahiya 5 m, paraIND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share |
HAZ | Coastal and sea level | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
Pirbûna hişkesaliya meteorolojîk a dijwarIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency |
HAZ | Hişkesalî | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR |
Rojên germahiya şil a xeternak di salê deIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501 |
Rojên hewaya şewatê ya tund di salê deIND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days |
HAZ | Agirê daristanan | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Rêjeya salane ya windabûna daranIND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | EPI TCL |
Rojên pêla germê ya deryayî di salê deIND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days |
ENV | Ocean | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, REGION, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708 |
Rêjeya girêdayîbûnê bi ava nûbûyî ya derveIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Bûyerên malaryayêIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA |
Nifûsa bi lêçûnên tenduristiyê yên felaketî ji berîka xweIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
Lêçûna xwarineke tenduristIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
Nifûsa ku nikare xwarineke tendurist bikireIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable |
FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
Nirxa zêdekirî ya çandinî, daristanî û masîgiriyê, para GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
Kar di çandiniyê de, para tevahiya karanIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
Guhêrbariya berhema dexlê (15 salî)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Vegetation Health Index li ser erda çandiniyêIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | |
Hejmara xizaniya tund, USD 3.00 di rojê de (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1 |
Hejmara xizaniyê, USD 4.20 di rojê de (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC |
Hejmara xizaniyê, USD 8.30 di rojê de (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC |
Hejmara xizaniyê li gorî xeta xizaniyê ya neteweyîIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1 |
Hejmara xizaniya pirrehendî (MPI ya cîhanî)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty |
SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB |
Îndeksa GiniIND.SOC.inequality.gini |
SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI |
Para dahat an xerckirinê ya 40 ji sedî yên jêrînIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share |
SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20 |
Mezinbûna xerckirin an dahata 40 ji sedî yên jêrînIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth |
SOC | Inequality | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1 |
Windabûna di pêşketina mirovî de ji ber newekheviyêIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss |
SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | HDR loss |
Navgîniya salên xwendinêIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling |
SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a |
COUNTRY | HDR mys |
Salên xwendinê yên hêvîkirîIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling |
SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a |
COUNTRY | HDR eys |
Xizaniya fêrbûnêIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty |
SOC | Education | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1 |
Rêjeya xwendewariya mezinanIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy |
SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1 |
Îndeksa Newekheviya Zayendî (UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index |
SOC | Gender | vulnerability | {score} |
COUNTRY | HDR gii |
Rêjeya beşdariya jinan di hêza kar deIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS |
Kursiyên jinan di parlamentoya neteweyî deIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
Nifûsa ku herî kêm bi yek alîkariya parastina civakî tê pêgirtinIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage |
SOC | Social protection | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot |
Ciwanên ne di kar, xwendin an perwerdeyê deIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet |
SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT |
Karê nefermî, para tevahiya karanIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment |
SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS |
Zarokên 5 heta 17 salî di karê zarokan deIND.SOC.protection.child_labour |
SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS |
Îndeksa Pêşketina Mirovî (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdi |
SOC | Pêşketina mirovî | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | HDR hdi |
Îndeksa Pêşketina Mirovî ya li gorî newekheviyê (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdi |
SOC | Pêşketina mirovî | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | HDR ihdi |
Tevahiya nifûsêIND.DEM.population.total |
DEM | Nifûs | context | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July |
Çirbûna nifûsêIND.DEM.population.density |
DEM | Nifûs | context | {persons}/km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity |
Mezinbûna nifûsêIND.DEM.population.growth |
DEM | Nifûs | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate |
Rêjeya giştî ya zayînêIND.DEM.population.fertility_rate |
DEM | Nifûs | context | {births}/{woman} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR |
Rêjeya girêdayîbûna temenîIND.DEM.structure.age_dependency |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.DPND |
Nifûsa 65 salî û zêdetir, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
Nifûsa di bin 15 salî de, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.structure.share_under15 |
DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS |
Nifûsa bajarî, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | context | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS |
Mezinbûna nifûsa bajarîIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW |
Nifûsa bajarî ya li taxên xizan dijîIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1 |
Penaber li gorî welatê eslêIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY | UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR |
Penaber li gorî welatê eslê, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | SDG 10.7.4 |
Penaberên mazûvanîkirî (welatê penaberiyê)IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted |
DEM | Forced displacement | exposure | {persons} |
COUNTRY | UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG |
Penaberên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | exposure | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | |
Daxwazkarên penaberiyê yên mazûvanîkirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | exposure | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | UNHCR ASY |
Koçberên navxweyî, pevçûn û tundî (stok)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP |
Koçberên navxweyî, karesat (stok)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC disaster_total_displacement |
Koçberên navxweyî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | |
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, pevçûn û tundîIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV |
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, karesatIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS |
Koçberiyên navxweyî yên nû, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k |
DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | |
Koçberiya netIND.DEM.migration.net_migration |
DEM | Migration | context | {persons} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations |
Rêjeya koçberiya netIND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rate |
DEM | Migration | context | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | UN_WPP CNMR |
Stoka koçberên navneteweyî, para nifûsêIND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_share |
DEM | Migration | context | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS |
Kuştiyên ragihandî ji tundiya siyasî ya rêxistinkirîIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
Kuştiyên pevçûnê ji her 100,000 kesîIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
Mirinên girêdayî şeran (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
Bûyerên tundiya siyasîIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
Bûyerên pevçûna çekdarîIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
Belavbûna erdnîgarî ya pevçûnêIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion |
CON | Organised violence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
Perçebûna aktorên çekdarIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
Rêjeya kuştina bi qestîIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate |
CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
Lêçûnên leşkerî, para GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp |
CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
Personelên hêzên çekdar, para hêza karIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share |
CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
Bûyerên ku sivîlan dikin armancIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events |
CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
Kuştiyên sivîl ji tundiya armanckirî, ji her 100,000 kesîIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
Êrişên li ser lênêrîna tenduristiyêIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Qurbaniyên mayînan û bermahiyên teqemenî yên şerIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties |
CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} |
COUNTRY | |
Serhildan û xwepêşandanên tundûtûjîIND.CON.peace.riot_events |
CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
Puana giştî ya Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score |
CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} |
COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
Puana qada pevçûnên berdewam a Global Peace Index (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict |
CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
Senifandina OECD States of FragilityIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class |
CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
Rewşa World Bank ya lawaz û ji pevçûnê bandorbûyîIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status |
CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} |
COUNTRY | |
Aramiya siyasî û nebûna tundiyê (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
Temambûna tomarkirina zayînêIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
Sal ji serjimêriya nifûsê ya dawî veIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
Para nûbûyî di tevahiya xerckirina enerjiyê ya dawî deIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
Tundiya enerjiya seretayî ya GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
Para fosîl di hilberîna elektrîkê deIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
Kapasîteya hilberîna nûbûyî ya sazkirî ji bo her kesîIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
Rojên derece yên germkirin û sarkirinêIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days |
ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Nifûsa bajarî ya bi gihîştina hêsan a veguhestina giştîIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Saziyên perwerdeyê yên ji karesatan zirar dîtî an wêranbûyîIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
Amadebûna parastina civakî ya bersivdêrî şokanIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY |
05Metirsî
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Malbat | Qad | Metirsî | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organised and collective violence | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | Civak, nakokî û aborî | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
06Pêşdîtin
How the outlooks for this series are verified
FIG 5 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
–
runs in your browser
07Rêbaz
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
19 methods
Lawazî, nazikî û berxwedan
Simple Vulnerability Factor Screening · Fragility Curve · Vulnerability Curve · Multi-State Damage · Component Fragility · Structural Vulnerability · Infrastructure Fragility …
21 methods
Jeopolîtîk, pevçûn û ewlehiya mirovî
Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …
08Users
Who uses it
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Civil society and NGOs
Target programmes. Use open profiles. Contribute local evidence.
International financial institutions and development banks
Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.
09Rapor
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
SR-06- Edition status
- plankirî
- Mijar
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
10Jêgirtin
Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Displacement and demographic change series (GRX-SER-SR-06), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-06/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000079.
- Series key
grix:SER.SR-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.DEM.displacement.displacement_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Rewş
Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.
NXS-GRX çi nîne
NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.
Sazî û çavkanî
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.