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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-06 · Strategic systems series

Displacement and demographic change

Forced displacement, migration pressure, ageing, youth bulges and urbanisation as risk multipliers.

Construction Indicators Outlook
Page GRX-SER-SR-06Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-06 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

1

Displacement pressure

Indicators

129

4 index domains

Hazard families

14

સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર

Methods

40

Vulnerability, fragility and resilience · Geopolitics, conflict and human security.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
domain indices
129
indicators in scope
1
hazard domains
4
client groups

01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where will displacement pressure rise?
  2. How do demographic shifts change exposure?
  3. Which hosting systems are near capacity?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Displacement and demographic change index is built

Graph5 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings

100%
List
  1. Displacement pressure

    Domain index · IDX · DEM
    Weighted aggregation of displacement outflow, refugee hosting pressure, age-structure pressure and unplanned urbanisation, on 0 to 10.
  2. Displacement and demographic change index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-06
    Forced displacement, migration pressure, ageing, youth bulges and urbanisation as risk multipliers.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-06 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Displacement and demographic change index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
સૂચકાંક મૂલ્ય ફેરફાર Change % 90% interval Class · probability Trend Range
Displacement pressureNXS-GRX · DEM – – – – –

Domains read: Demography and mobility, Social and human development, Conflict and security, Climate.

04Indicators

129 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31DEM · 24SOC · 22CON · 19
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicator Domain Sub-domain Component Unit Levels Crosswalks
Unemployment rateIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Personal remittances received, share of GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Trade exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Surface warming since pre-industrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial CLI Chronic physical change hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID FAO_FAOSTAT ET
Change in annual precipitationIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change CLI Chronic physical change hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Relative sea-level rise rateIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend CLI Chronic physical change hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Hottest day of the year (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx CLI Acute climate extremes hazard Cel COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Share of warm days (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Change in very hot days (35 °C or more)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Warm spell duration (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Wettest day of the year (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Wettest five days of the year (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Precipitation from very wet days (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Longest dry spell (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Projected warming since pre-industrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming CLI Scenario projections hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Projected change in hottest-day temperatureIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change CLI Scenario projections hazard K COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Projected change in wettest five-day precipitationIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change CLI Scenario projections hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Projected relative sea-level riseIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise CLI Scenario projections hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, shareIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share CLI Scenario projections exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Greenhouse gas emissions per capitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita CLI Emissions exposure t/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Carbon intensity of GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Fossil-fuel rents, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Fuel exports, share of merchandise exportsIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
NDC 2030 economy-wide emissions targetIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition CLI Transition exposure response % COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
National adaptation plan submittedIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {bool} COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Social readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
International adaptation finance received per capitaIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity [USD] COUNTRY
Population below 5 m elevation, shareIND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Frequency of severe meteorological droughtIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ Drought hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
Days of dangerous humid heat per yearIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
Extreme fire-weather days per yearIND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days HAZ Wildfire hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Annual tree cover loss rateIND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID EPI TCL
Marine heatwave days per yearIND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days ENV Ocean hazard d/a COUNTRY, REGION, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708
Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Malaria incidenceIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
Population with catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendingIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost FOO Access and affordability vulnerability [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Cereal yield variability (15-year)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Vegetation Health Index on croplandIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
Extreme poverty headcount, USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
Poverty headcount, USD 4.20 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
Poverty headcount, USD 8.30 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
Poverty headcount at the national poverty lineIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
Multidimensional poverty headcount (global MPI)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
Gini indexIND.SOC.inequality.gini SOC Inequality vulnerability {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
Income or consumption share of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
Growth of consumption or income of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth SOC Inequality adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
Loss in human development due to inequalityIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY HDR loss
Mean years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR mys
Expected years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR eys
Learning povertyIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty SOC Education vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
Adult literacy rateIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy SOC Education adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
Gender Inequality Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index SOC Gender vulnerability {score} COUNTRY HDR gii
Female labour-force participation rateIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Population covered by at least one social protection benefitIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage SOC Social protection coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
Youth not in employment, education or trainingIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
Informal employment, share of total employmentIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Children aged 5 to 17 in child labourIND.SOC.protection.child_labour SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdi SOC Human development adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR hdi
Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdi SOC Human development adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR ihdi
Total populationIND.DEM.population.total DEM વસ્તી context {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July
Population densityIND.DEM.population.density DEM વસ્તી context {persons}/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity
Population growthIND.DEM.population.growth DEM વસ્તી vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate
Total fertility rateIND.DEM.population.fertility_rate DEM વસ્તી context {births}/{woman} COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR
Age dependency ratioIND.DEM.structure.age_dependency DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.DPND
Population aged 65 and over, share of totalIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
Population aged under 15, share of totalIND.DEM.structure.share_under15 DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
Urban population, share of totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Urban population growthIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Refugees by country of originIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
Refugees by country of origin, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY SDG 10.7.4
Refugees hosted (country of asylum)IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted DEM Forced displacement exposure {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG
Refugees hosted, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY
Asylum-seekers hosted, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY UNHCR ASY
Internally displaced people, conflict and violence (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
Internally displaced people, disasters (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_total_displacement
Internally displaced people, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
New internal displacements, conflict and violenceIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
New internal displacements, disastersIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS
New internal displacements, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
Net migrationIND.DEM.migration.net_migration DEM Migration context {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations
Net migration rateIND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rate DEM Migration context /10*3 COUNTRY UN_WPP CNMR
International migrant stock, share of populationIND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_share DEM Migration context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS
Reported fatalities from organised political violenceIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED fatalities
Conflict fatalities per 100,000 populationIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 SDG 16.1.2
Battle-related deaths (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths CON Organised violence hazard {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH
Political violence eventsIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Political violence
Armed conflict eventsIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence
Geographic diffusion of conflictIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion CON Organised violence exposure % COUNTRY ACLED Diffusion
Fragmentation of armed actorsIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY ACLED Fragmentation
Intentional homicide rateIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1
Military expenditure, share of GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
Armed forces personnel, share of labour forceIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS
Events targeting civiliansIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events CON Civilian harm hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians
Civilian fatalities from targeted violence, per 100,000 populationIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k CON Civilian harm impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 ACLED Danger
Attacks on health careIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
Casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of warIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties CON Civilian harm impact {persons} COUNTRY
Riots and violent demonstrationsIND.CON.peace.riot_events CON Peacefulness hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ACLED Riots
Global Peace Index overall score (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score CON Peacefulness vulnerability {score} COUNTRY GPI Overall Score
Global Peace Index ongoing conflict domain score (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict CON Peacefulness hazard {score} COUNTRY GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict
OECD States of Fragility classificationIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class CON Fragility vulnerability {class} COUNTRY OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts
World Bank fragile and conflict-affected situation statusIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status CON Fragility vulnerability {bool} COUNTRY
Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Renewable share of total final energy consumptionIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Primary energy intensity of GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Fossil share of electricity generationIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Installed renewable generating capacity per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
Heating and cooling degree daysIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Shock-responsive social protection readinessIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection CRS Response capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05આપત્તિઓ

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Society130HAZARDS
1 hazard domains (inner ring) and 14 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Family Domain આપત્તિઓ Count
Organised and collective violence સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss સમાજ, સંઘર્ષ અને અર્થતંત્ર Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Outlook

How the outlooks for this series are verified

FIG 5 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
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runs in your browser

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
07Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

19 methods

Vulnerability, fragility and resilience

Simple Vulnerability Factor Screening · Fragility Curve · Vulnerability Curve · Multi-State Damage · Component Fragility · Structural Vulnerability · Infrastructure Fragility …

21 methods

Geopolitics, conflict and human security

Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …

08Users

Who uses it

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Civil society and NGOs

Target programmes. Use open profiles. Contribute local evidence.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

09અહેવાલો

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-06
Edition status
planned
Subject
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Displacement and demographic change series (GRX-SER-SR-06), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-06/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000079.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.DEM.displacement.displacement_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Country profiles All series

સ્થિતિ

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.