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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · SR-06 · Strategic systems series

流离失所与人口结构变化

强迫流离失所、移民压力、老龄化、青年人口膨胀和城市化作为风险倍增因素。

Construction Indicators Outlook
Page GRX-SER-SR-06Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports SR-06 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
领域指数

1

流离失所压力

指标

129

4 index domains

Hazard families

14

社会、冲突与经济

方法

40

Vulnerability, fragility and resilience · Geopolitics, conflict and human security.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
领域指数
129
indicators in scope
1
危害领域
4
client groups

01范围

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where will displacement pressure rise?
  2. How do demographic shifts change exposure?
  3. Which hosting systems are near capacity?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Displacement and demographic change index is built

Graph5 nodes
流程图
01领域指数
02Series index
03Readings

100%
索引
  1. 流离失所压力

    Domain index · IDX · DEM
    Weighted aggregation of displacement outflow, refugee hosting pressure, age-structure pressure and unplanned urbanisation, on 0 to 10.
  2. Displacement and demographic change index

    Series index · SERIES · SR-06
    强迫流离失所、移民压力、老龄化、青年人口膨胀和城市化作为风险倍增因素。
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未运行进行中已完成
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03指数

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · SR-06 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Displacement and demographic change index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
指数 数值 变化 变化 % 90% 区间 类别 · 概率 趋势 范围
流离失所压力NXS-GRX · DEM – – – – –

Domains read: Demography and mobility, Social and human development, Conflict and security, Climate.

04指标

129 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31DEM · 24SOC · 22CON · 19
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指标 领域 Sub-domain 组件 单位 级别 Crosswalks
失业率IND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
家庭债务，占 GDP 比重IND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
成年人账户拥有率IND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
银行对碳密集行业的风险暴露IND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
面临高物理气候风险的银行贷款IND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
收到的个人汇款，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO 贸易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
相对工业化前的地表升温IND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial CLI Chronic physical change hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID FAO_FAOSTAT ET
年降水量变化IND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change CLI Chronic physical change hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
相对海平面上升速率IND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend CLI Chronic physical change hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
年内最热日（TXx）IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx CLI Acute climate extremes hazard Cel COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
暖日占比（TX90p）IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
酷热日数变化（35 °C 及以上）IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
暖期持续时间（WSDI）IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
年内最大日降水量（Rx1day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
年内最大五日降水量（Rx5day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
极端湿润日降水量（R95pTOT）IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
最长连续干旱日数（CDD）IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
相对工业化前的预估升温IND.CLI.projection.projected_warming CLI Scenario projections hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
最热日气温预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change CLI Scenario projections hazard K COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
最大五日降水量预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change CLI Scenario projections hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
预估相对海平面上升IND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise CLI Scenario projections hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
低于未来 100 年一遇沿海洪水水位的人口占比IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share CLI Scenario projections exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
温室气体排放总量（不含 LULUCF）IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
人均温室气体排放量IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita CLI Emissions exposure t/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
GDP 碳强度IND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
化石燃料租金，占 GDP 比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
燃料出口，占商品出口比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
显性化石燃料补贴，占 GDP 比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
NDC 2030 全经济范围排放目标IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition CLI Transition exposure response % COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
已提交国家适应计划IND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {bool} COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
适应投资的经济准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
适应的治理准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
适应的社会准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
人均获得的国际适应资金IND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity [USD] COUNTRY
海拔 5 m 以下人口占比IND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
严重气象干旱频率IND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ 干旱 hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
每年危险湿热日数IND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
每年极端火险天气日数IND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days HAZ 野火 hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
年树木覆盖损失率IND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID EPI TCL
每年海洋热浪日数IND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days ENV Ocean hazard d/a COUNTRY, REGION, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708
对外部可再生水的依赖率IND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
疟疾发病率IND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
发生灾难性自付医疗支出的人口IND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
健康膳食成本IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost FOO Access and affordability vulnerability [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
无力负担健康膳食的人口IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
农林渔业增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
农业就业，占总就业比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
谷物单产波动性（15 年）IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
耕地植被健康指数IND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
极端贫困人口比例，每天 3.00 美元（2021 年 PPP）IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
贫困人口比例，每天 4.20 美元（2021 年 PPP）IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
贫困人口比例，每天 8.30 美元（2021 年 PPP）IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
按国家贫困线计算的贫困人口比例IND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
多维贫困人口比例（全球 MPI）IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
基尼系数IND.SOC.inequality.gini SOC Inequality vulnerability {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
最低 40% 人群的收入或消费占比IND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
最低 40% 人群的消费或收入增长率IND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth SOC Inequality adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
不平等造成的人类发展损失IND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY HDR loss
平均受教育年限IND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR mys
预期受教育年限IND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR eys
学习贫困IND.SOC.education.learning_poverty SOC Education vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
成人识字率IND.SOC.education.adult_literacy SOC Education adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
性别不平等指数（UNDP）IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index SOC Gender vulnerability {score} COUNTRY HDR gii
女性劳动力参与率IND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
国家议会中女性所占席位IND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
至少享有一项社会保护福利的人口IND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage SOC Social protection coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
未就业、未受教育或培训的青年IND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
非正规就业，占总就业比重IND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
从事童工劳动的 5 至 17 岁儿童IND.SOC.protection.child_labour SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
人类发展指数（UNDP）IND.SOC.development.hdi SOC 人类发展 adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR hdi
不平等调整后人类发展指数（UNDP）IND.SOC.development.ihdi SOC 人类发展 adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR ihdi
总人口IND.DEM.population.total DEM 人口 context {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July
人口密度IND.DEM.population.density DEM 人口 context {persons}/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity
人口增长率IND.DEM.population.growth DEM 人口 vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate
总和生育率IND.DEM.population.fertility_rate DEM 人口 context {births}/{woman} COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR
年龄抚养比IND.DEM.structure.age_dependency DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.DPND
65 岁及以上人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.structure.share_65plus DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
15 岁以下人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.structure.share_under15 DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
城市人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
城市人口增长率IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
居住在贫民窟的城市人口IND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
按原籍国统计的难民IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
按原籍国统计的难民，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY SDG 10.7.4
收容的难民（庇护国）IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted DEM Forced displacement exposure {persons} COUNTRY UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG
收容的难民，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY
收容的寻求庇护者，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k DEM Forced displacement exposure /10*5 COUNTRY UNHCR ASY
境内流离失所者，冲突和暴力（存量）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
境内流离失所者，灾害（存量）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact {persons} COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_total_displacement
境内流离失所者，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
新增境内流离失所，冲突和暴力IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
新增境内流离失所，灾害IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster DEM Forced displacement impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS
新增境内流离失所，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k DEM Forced displacement impact /10*5 COUNTRY
净移民IND.DEM.migration.net_migration DEM Migration context {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations
净移民率IND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rate DEM Migration context /10*3 COUNTRY UN_WPP CNMR
国际移民存量，占人口比重IND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_share DEM Migration context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS
有组织政治暴力造成的报告死亡人数IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED fatalities
每 100,000 人冲突死亡人数IND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 SDG 16.1.2
战斗相关死亡人数（UCDP）IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths CON Organised violence hazard {persons} COUNTRY WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH
政治暴力事件IND.CON.violence.political_violence_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Political violence
武装冲突事件IND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence
冲突的地理扩散IND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion CON Organised violence exposure % COUNTRY ACLED Diffusion
武装行为体的碎片化IND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation CON Organised violence hazard 1 COUNTRY ACLED Fragmentation
故意杀人率IND.CON.violence.homicide_rate CON Organised violence hazard /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1
军事支出，占 GDP 比重IND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
武装部队人员，占劳动力比重IND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share CON Organised violence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS
针对平民的事件IND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events CON Civilian harm hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians
针对性暴力造成的平民死亡人数，每 100,000 人IND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k CON Civilian harm impact /10*5 COUNTRY, ADM1 ACLED Danger
针对医疗卫生的袭击IND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
地雷和战争遗留爆炸物造成的伤亡IND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties CON Civilian harm impact {persons} COUNTRY
骚乱和暴力示威IND.CON.peace.riot_events CON Peacefulness hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ACLED Riots
全球和平指数总得分（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_score CON Peacefulness vulnerability {score} COUNTRY GPI Overall Score
全球和平指数持续冲突领域得分（IEP）IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict CON Peacefulness hazard {score} COUNTRY GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict
OECD 脆弱国家分类IND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class CON Fragility vulnerability {class} COUNTRY OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts
世界银行脆弱和受冲突影响局势状态IND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status CON Fragility vulnerability {bool} COUNTRY
政治稳定和无暴力（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
出生登记完整性IND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
距上次人口普查的年数IND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
可再生能源在最终能源消费总量中的占比IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
GDP 一次能源强度IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
化石能源发电占比IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
人均可再生能源装机容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
采暖和制冷度日数IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
可便捷使用公共交通的城市人口IND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
因灾害受损或被毁的教育设施IND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
冲击响应型社会保护准备度IND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection CRS Response capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05危害

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
社会130HAZARDS
1 hazard domains (inner ring) and 14 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
类别 领域 危害 Count
Organised and collective violence 社会、冲突与经济 Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm 社会、冲突与经济 Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises 社会、冲突与经济 Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour 社会、冲突与经济 Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure 社会、冲突与经济 Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons 社会、冲突与经济 Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure 社会、冲突与经济 Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility 社会、冲突与经济 Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks 社会、冲突与经济 Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition 社会、冲突与经济 Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement 社会、冲突与经济 Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk 社会、冲突与经济 Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies 社会、冲突与经济 Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss 社会、冲突与经济 Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06展望

How the outlooks for this series are verified

FIG 5 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
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在您的浏览器中运行

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
07方法

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

19 methods

脆弱性、脆弱状态与韧性

Simple Vulnerability Factor Screening · Fragility Curve · Vulnerability Curve · Multi-State Damage · Component Fragility · Structural Vulnerability · Infrastructure Fragility …

21 methods

地缘政治、冲突与人类安全

Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …

08Users

Who uses it

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

公民社会和非政府组织

Target programmes. Use open profiles. Contribute local evidence.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

09报告

Nexus Reports

Edition code
SR-06
Edition status
计划中
主题
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10引用

引用与再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Displacement and demographic change series (GRX-SER-SR-06), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-06/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000079.
Series key
grix:SER.SR-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.DEM.displacement.displacement_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

国家概况 所有系列

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.