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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-16 · Exponential technology series

Manufatura avançada

Manufatura avançada e aditiva, automação industrial e seus riscos de abastecimento, cibernéticos e trabalhistas.

Page GRX-SER-XT-16Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-16 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de domínio

3

External dependence risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.

Indicadores

61

3 index domains

Hazard families

29

Frontier and exponential technology · Built systems

Métodos

57

Markets, trade and supply chains · Critical infrastructure and industrial systems.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
índices de domínio
61
indicators in scope
2
domínios de ameaça
3
client groups

01Escopo

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. How fragile are advanced manufacturing chains?
  2. What cyber risk enters with automation?
  3. Where does production concentrate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Advanced manufacturing index is built

Graph7 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de domínio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Risco de dependência externa

    Domain index · IDX · ECO
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  2. Risco cibernético

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Risco de concentração tecnológica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Advanced manufacturing index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-16
    Manufatura avançada e aditiva, automação industrial e seus riscos de abastecimento, cibernéticos e trabalhistas.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-16 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Advanced manufacturing index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Índice Valor Variação Variação % Intervalo de 90% Classe · probabilidade Tendência Faixa
Risco de dependência externaNXS-GRX · ECO – – – – –
Risco cibernéticoNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Risco de concentração tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Cyber and digital.

04Indicadores

61 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Domínio Sub-domain Componente Unidade Níveis Crosswalks
Exportações de bens e serviços, em dólares americanos correntesIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Volatilidade dos termos de troca (10 anos)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Receita de recursos naturais, em % da receita do governo geralIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Abertura comercial (exportações mais importações, em % do PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Comércio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Receitas do turismo internacional, em % das exportaçõesIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Comércio vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Remessas pessoais recebidas, em % do PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Comércio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Ajuda oficial ao desenvolvimento líquida recebida, em % da RNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Comércio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Concentração de produtos exportados (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração dos mercados de exportação (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Dependência das exportações de commoditiesIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Manufaturados, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rendas de recursos naturais, em % do PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Índice de complexidade econômicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
Importações de alimentos, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Importações de combustíveis, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dependência líquida de importações de minerais críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentração da origem das importações (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Parcela de valor agregado estrangeiro nas exportações brutasIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores das importações de bens intermediáriosIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Comércio marítimo exposto a pontos de estrangulamento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Entradas líquidas de investimento estrangeiro direto, em % do PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Investimento coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Exportações de combustíveis, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
PIB em setores altamente dependentes da natureza, em %IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Eficiência do uso da águaIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Estresse hídrico adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
PIB em atividades dependentes de GNSS, em %IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Índice de dependência das importações de cereaisIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Fatura das importações de alimentos, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Valor agregado da agricultura, silvicultura e pesca, em % do PIBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Pontuação do ambiente de negócios (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de petróleo bruto e derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de gás naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de carvãoIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Parcela do maior fornecedor nas importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Desempenho logísticoIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Conectividade do transporte marítimo regular em relação à fronteiraIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Pessoas que usam a internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundância das rotas de conectividade internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Horas de interrupção da internet em escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Déficit de investimento em infraestrutura, em % do PIBIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pontuação no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Nível no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar de medidas jurídicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar de medidas técnicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar de medidas organizacionais do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar de medidas de desenvolvimento de capacidades do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar de medidas de cooperação do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Equipe nacional de resposta a incidentes de computador em operaçãoIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Legislação de proteção de dados e privacidade em vigorIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Incidentes cibernéticos significativos por milhão de habitantesIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Incidentes cibernéticos que interrompem serviços críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valor agregado dos serviços de TIC, em % do PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Desenvolvimento do governo eletrônicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Despesa interna bruta em P&D, em % do PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Pesquisadores por milhão de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportações de alta tecnologia, em % das exportações de manufaturadosIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de semicondutoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de infraestrutura em nuvemIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacidade de computação de IA sob controle estrangeiro ou de um único provedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de modelos de fundaçãoIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisão de biossegurança e bioproteção de laboratórios de alta contençãoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnologia coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Ameaças

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
BuiltFronteira219HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 29 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Família Domínio Ameaças Count
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnologia e biologia sintética Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologias de intervenção climática Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Structural and civil failure Sistemas construídos Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture 8
Utility and communication network outage Sistemas construídos Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure 6
Transport accidents Sistemas construídos Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash 5
Industrial and process accidents Sistemas construídos Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … 15
Energy system instability and shortfall Sistemas construídos Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … 22
Water and wastewater system failure Sistemas construídos Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … 9
Telecom and data-centre failure Sistemas construídos Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss 8
Space-based service loss Sistemas construídos Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure 4
Seabed infrastructure damage Sistemas construídos Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage 3
Transport network disruption Sistemas construídos Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … 12
Food system infrastructure failure Sistemas construídos Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production 5
Urban and building-stock stress Sistemas construídos Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure 6
Ageing and degraded infrastructure Sistemas construídos Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage 7
06Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

30 methods

Mercados, comércio e cadeias de suprimentos

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

27 methods

Infraestrutura crítica e sistemas industriais

Asset Reliability · Process Safety · HAZOP · FMEA FMECA · Industrial Fault Tree · Industrial Event Tree · LOPA …

07Users

Who uses it

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

08Relatórios

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-16
Edition status
prevista
Objeto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Advanced manufacturing series (GRX-SER-XT-16), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-16/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000103.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-16:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.