Skip to content

Foundry

Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-16 · Exponential technology series

先进制造

先进制造和增材制造、工业自动化及其供应、网络和劳动力风险。

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-16Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-16 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
领域指数

3

External dependence risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.

指标

61

3 index domains

Hazard families

29

Frontier and exponential technology · Built systems

方法

57

Markets, trade and supply chains · Critical infrastructure and industrial systems.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
领域指数
61
indicators in scope
2
危害领域
3
client groups

01范围

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. How fragile are advanced manufacturing chains?
  2. What cyber risk enters with automation?
  3. Where does production concentrate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Advanced manufacturing index is built

Graph7 nodes
流程图
01领域指数
02Series index
03Readings

100%
索引
  1. 外部依赖风险

    Domain index · IDX · ECO
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  2. 网络风险

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. 技术集中风险

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Advanced manufacturing index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-16
    先进制造和增材制造、工业自动化及其供应、网络和劳动力风险。
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未运行进行中已完成
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03指数

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-16 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Advanced manufacturing index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
指数 数值 变化 变化 % 90% 区间 类别 · 概率 趋势 范围
外部依赖风险NXS-GRX · ECO – – – – –
网络风险NXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
技术集中风险NXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Cyber and digital.

04指标

61 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指标 领域 Sub-domain 组件 单位 级别 Crosswalks
货物和服务出口，现价美元IND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
贸易条件波动性（10 年）IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
自然资源收入，占广义政府收入比重IND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
贸易开放度（进出口总额，占 GDP 比重）IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO 贸易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
国际旅游收入，占出口比重IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO 贸易 vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
收到的个人汇款，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO 贸易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
收到的官方发展援助净额，占 GNI 比重IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO 贸易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
出口产品集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
出口市场集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
大宗商品出口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
制成品，占商品出口比重IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
自然资源租金，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
经济复杂度指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
食品进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
燃料进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
进口来源集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
总出口中的国外增加值占比IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
中间品进口供应方集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
外国直接投资净流入，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO 投资 coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
燃料出口，占商品出口比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
高度依赖自然的行业 GDP 占比IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
用水效率IND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT 水资源压力 adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
依赖 GNSS 的活动所产生的 GDP 占比IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
谷物进口依赖率IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
食品进口支出，占商品出口比重IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
农林渔业增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
营商环境得分（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
原油及成品油进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
天然气进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
煤炭进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
物流绩效IND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
班轮运输连通性（相对前沿水平）IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
互联网使用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
国际连接路由冗余度IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
全国范围互联网中断小时数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
基础设施投资缺口，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
ITU 全球网络安全指数得分IND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
ITU 全球网络安全指数等级IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI 法律措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI 技术措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI 组织措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI 能力建设措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI 合作措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
国家计算机事件响应团队已运作IND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
数据保护和隐私立法已生效IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
每百万人重大网络事件数IND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
扰乱关键服务的网络事件IND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT 服务增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
电子政务发展IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
研发总支出，占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
高技术出口，占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC 人工智能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC 人工智能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC 生物技术 coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05危害

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Built前沿219HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 29 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
类别 领域 危害 Count
AI system failure and misalignment 前沿与指数型技术 AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain 前沿与指数型技术 Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift 前沿与指数型技术 AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale 前沿与指数型技术 Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm 前沿与指数型技术 Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons 前沿与指数型技术 Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
生物技术与合成生物学 前沿与指数型技术 Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials 前沿与指数型技术 Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality 前沿与指数型技术 Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition 前沿与指数型技术 Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
气候干预技术 前沿与指数型技术 Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure 前沿与指数型技术 Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture 前沿与指数型技术 Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing 前沿与指数型技术 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures 前沿与指数型技术 Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets 前沿与指数型技术 Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Structural and civil failure 建成系统 Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture 8
Utility and communication network outage 建成系统 Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure 6
Transport accidents 建成系统 Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash 5
Industrial and process accidents 建成系统 Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … 15
Energy system instability and shortfall 建成系统 Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … 22
Water and wastewater system failure 建成系统 Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … 9
Telecom and data-centre failure 建成系统 Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss 8
Space-based service loss 建成系统 Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure 4
Seabed infrastructure damage 建成系统 Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage 3
Transport network disruption 建成系统 Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … 12
Food system infrastructure failure 建成系统 Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production 5
Urban and building-stock stress 建成系统 Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure 6
Ageing and degraded infrastructure 建成系统 Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage 7
06方法

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

30 methods

市场、贸易与供应链

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

27 methods

关键基础设施和工业系统

Asset Reliability · Process Safety · HAZOP · FMEA FMECA · Industrial Fault Tree · Industrial Event Tree · LOPA …

07Users

Who uses it

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

08报告

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-16
Edition status
计划中
主题
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09引用

引用与再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Advanced manufacturing series (GRX-SER-XT-16), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-16/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000103.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-16:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

国家概况 所有系列

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.