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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · GS-15 · Global sector series

Global Science and engineering

The scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration.

Page GRX-SER-GS-15Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports GS-15 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

1

Technology concentration risk

Indicators

75

3 index domains

Hazard families

16

અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી

Methods

107

Scientific assurance · Risk data

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
domain indices
75
indicators in scope
1
hazard domains
4
client groups

01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where is risk science capacity thinnest relative to risk?
  2. Which models and datasets are single points of failure?
  3. How reproducible are the methods risk decisions rely on?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Global Science and engineering index is built

Graph5 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings

100%
List
  1. Technology concentration risk

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Global Science and engineering index

    Series index · SERIES · GS-15
    The scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · GS-15 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Global Science and engineering index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
સૂચકાંક મૂલ્ય ફેરફાર Change % 90% interval Class · probability Trend Range
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Social and human development, Governance and institutions.

04Indicators

75 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
SOC · 22GOV · 20TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicator Domain Sub-domain Component Unit Levels Crosswalks
Unemployment rateIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Social readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Transboundary basin area with operational cooperationIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Population with catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendingIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost FOO Access and affordability vulnerability [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Extreme poverty headcount, USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
Poverty headcount, USD 4.20 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
Poverty headcount, USD 8.30 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
Poverty headcount at the national poverty lineIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
Multidimensional poverty headcount (global MPI)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
Gini indexIND.SOC.inequality.gini SOC Inequality vulnerability {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
Income or consumption share of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
Growth of consumption or income of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth SOC Inequality adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
Loss in human development due to inequalityIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY HDR loss
Mean years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR mys
Expected years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR eys
Learning povertyIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty SOC Education vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
Adult literacy rateIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy SOC Education adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
Gender Inequality Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index SOC Gender vulnerability {score} COUNTRY HDR gii
Female labour-force participation rateIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Population covered by at least one social protection benefitIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage SOC Social protection coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
Youth not in employment, education or trainingIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
Informal employment, share of total employmentIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Children aged 5 to 17 in child labourIND.SOC.protection.child_labour SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdi SOC Human development adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR hdi
Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdi SOC Human development adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR ihdi
Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI organisational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Artificial intelligence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Artificial intelligence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
National DRR strategy aligned with the Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Local governments with DRR strategies aligned to the national strategyIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
Shock-responsive social protection readinessIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection CRS Response capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05આપત્તિઓ

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Frontier109HAZARDS
1 hazard domains (inner ring) and 16 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Family Domain આપત્તિઓ Count
AI system failure and misalignment અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Climate intervention technologies અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets અગ્રણી અને ઘાતાંકીય ટેકનોલોજી Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

45 methods

Scientific assurance

Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …

24 methods

Risk data

Source Discovery · Source Fitness · Rights Resolver · Freshness Resolver · Provenance Resolver · Data Quality · Missingness Semantics …

38 methods

Universal mathematics and statistics

Robust Distribution · Empirical Distribution · Bayesian Updating · Hierarchical Bayesian · Extreme Value · Tail Risk · Copula Dependency …

07Users

Who uses it

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

08અહેવાલો

Nexus Reports

Edition code
GS-15
Edition status
planned
Subject
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Global Science and engineering series (GRX-SER-GS-15), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/gs-15/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000073.
Series key
grix:SER.GS-15:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.