Es dan salju
Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice.
3 families, 18 hazards
Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice. Organised by ice; families by driving process.
Snowpack hazards cryo.snowpack
Hazards of seasonal snow cover: it falls as a slope hazard, melts as a water source and goes missing as a drought.
A mass of snow sliding or flowing down a slope, burying people, roads and buildings.
Also: snow slide
A winter snowpack far below normal that cuts spring meltwater for rivers, hydropower and irrigation.
Rain falling on a snowpack so that it melts and releases water quickly, adding to runoff and flood peaks.
Glacier, ice-sheet and permafrost change cryo.glacier
Land ice and frozen ground changing state: sudden releases and slow losses are kept together because they share monitoring (satellite altimetry, ground sensors) and the same warming driver.
A sudden release of water from a lake held back by a glacier or moraine, sending a flood and debris wave down the valley.
Also: GLOF
A large part of a glacier or hanging ice breaking away and rushing down the valley as an ice and rock avalanche.
Also: ice avalanche, hanging glacier break-off
Sustained shrinking of mountain glaciers that first raises and later cuts dry-season river flow and destabilises slopes.
Also: glacier retreat
Net loss of ice from the great ice sheets, driving long-term sea-level rise and changes in ocean circulation.
Warming of frozen ground that weakens foundations, collapses slopes, releases greenhouse gases and reshapes drainage.
Also: thermokarst
Rapid break-up of a floating ice shelf when meltwater fractures it or warm water thins it, letting the glaciers it held back flow faster into the sea.
Also: ice-shelf collapse, hydrofracture
A sudden flood of meltwater released from beneath a glacier, often by volcanic heat, that sweeps away bridges, roads and land downstream.
Also: jokulhlaup, glacial volcanic flood
A glacier advancing many times faster than normal for months to years, overrunning land and damming rivers to create outburst flood risk.
Also: surging glacier
Collapse and retreat of slopes as ice-rich permafrost thaws, flowing mud and debris into rivers and undermining roads, pipelines and buildings.
Also: retrogressive thaw slump, active-layer detachment
Acceleration and breakdown of ice-cemented rock glaciers as mountain permafrost warms, feeding debris flows and rockfall onto mountain infrastructure.
Also: rock glacier acceleration, creeping permafrost failure
Floating ice cryo.floating-ice
Ice that floats on open water: grouped by medium because the hazard is to shipping, ports and offshore work, and is observed the same way.
Sea ice that closes shipping lanes, crushes hulls and platforms and cuts off coastal communities.
Also: pack ice
Icebergs or large floes drifting into shipping lanes, ports and offshore platforms.
Also: icebergs, ice flow
Shrinking polar ice cover that exposes coasts, shifts weather patterns and opens new shipping and security risks.
Later freeze-up, earlier break-up and thinner ice on lakes and rivers that cut off winter roads and travel and raise drowning risk for northern communities.
Also: ice road failure, shorter ice season
Wind or current driving lake or sea ice onto shore, where it piles up and crushes buildings, docks and shoreline structures.
Also: ice push, ice pile-up
59 expert relations
Triggers, amplifications, compound pairs and reductions from the Hazard Standard expert model; 39 lead out of this domain into others.
| Dari | Jenis | Ke | Mekanisme | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy snowfall | trigger |
Snow avalanche | new snow loads a slope | tinggi |
| Heavy snowfall | reduces |
Snow drought | adds to the snowpack | tinggi |
| Snowstorm | trigger |
Snow avalanche | rapid snow loading in wind | medium |
| Blizzard | trigger |
Snow avalanche | wind slabs form on lee slopes | tinggi |
| Gelombang panas | amplify |
Snow drought | warm spells melt snow early | tinggi |
| Gelombang panas | trigger |
Glacial lake outburst flood | rapid melt raises lake level and stresses dams | medium |
| Atmospheric river | trigger |
Rain-on-snow event | warm moist air rains on snow | tinggi |
| Atmospheric river | reduces |
Snow drought | adds snow at altitude | medium |
| Snow avalanche | trigger |
Widespread power outage | burial of lines and poles in mountain terrain | medium |
| Snow drought | trigger |
Hydrological drought | less spring melt feeds rivers | tinggi |
| Snow drought | amplify |
Agricultural drought | less irrigation water | tinggi |
| Snow drought | amplify |
Kebakaran hutan dan lahan | earlier drying and a longer fire season | medium |
| Rain-on-snow event | trigger |
Snowmelt flood | rain adds heat and water to the snowpack | tinggi |
| Rain-on-snow event | trigger |
Banjir sungai | rain and melt together raise discharge | tinggi |
| Rain-on-snow event | trigger |
Snow avalanche | wet snow loses strength | medium |
| Glacial lake outburst flood | trigger |
Debris flow | flood wave entrains valley debris | tinggi |
| Glacial lake outburst flood | trigger |
Banjir bandang | sudden release of lake volume | tinggi |
| Glacier or ice-mass collapse | trigger |
Glacial lake outburst flood | ice falling into a lake displaces water over a dam | tinggi |
| Glacier or ice-mass collapse | trigger |
Natural-dam outburst flood | ice and rock debris block a valley | medium |
| Glacier or ice-mass collapse | trigger |
Tsunami | calving or ice fall into a fjord or lake | rendah |
| Glacier mass loss | trigger |
Glacial lake outburst flood | new meltwater lakes form behind unstable dams | medium |
| Glacier mass loss | amplify |
Water supply shortfall | long-run loss of dry-season meltwater | tinggi |
| Glacier mass loss | amplify |
Kenaikan muka air laut | meltwater adds to the ocean | tinggi |
| Glacier mass loss | amplify |
Rock avalanche | loss of ice support and thawing of slopes | medium |
| Glacier mass loss | trigger |
Hydrological drought | reduced melt contribution after peak flow | medium |
| Ice-sheet mass loss | amplify |
Kenaikan muka air laut | ice discharge adds to the ocean | tinggi |
| Ice-sheet mass loss | trigger |
Abrupt climate-system shift | freshwater input may weaken ocean circulation | rendah |
| Permafrost thaw | trigger |
Slope slide | loss of ground ice weakens slopes | tinggi |
| Permafrost thaw | trigger |
Land subsidence | ground ice melts and the ground settles | tinggi |
| Permafrost thaw | trigger |
Pipeline rupture | ground movement loads pipelines | medium |
| Permafrost thaw | trigger |
Building collapse | foundation settlement | medium |
| Permafrost thaw | amplify |
Erosi pesisir | thawing coastal bluffs erode quickly | tinggi |
| Permafrost thaw | trigger |
Anthrax outbreak | thawing exposes old carcasses and spores | rendah |
| Sea ice | trigger |
Maritime accident | hull damage and entrapment | tinggi |
| Sea ice | trigger |
Oil and gas extraction accident | ice loads on offshore structures | medium |
| Sea ice | trigger |
Port or hub closure | ports and routes blocked by ice | medium |
| Iceberg and ice-floe drift | trigger |
Maritime accident | collision with ice | tinggi |
| Iceberg and ice-floe drift | trigger |
Oil and gas extraction accident | ice impact on platforms | medium |
| Hilangnya es laut | amplify |
Erosi pesisir | less shore-fast ice protection from waves | tinggi |
| Hilangnya es laut | trigger |
Kehilangan keanekaragaman hayati | habitat loss for ice-dependent species | medium |
| Hilangnya es laut | amplify |
Polar vortex disruption | altered Arctic heating and wave patterns | rendah |
| Rock avalanche | trigger |
Glacial lake outburst flood | impact into a glacial lake causes overtopping | medium |
| Kebakaran hutan dan lahan | amplify |
Glacier mass loss | soot darkens snow and ice | rendah |
| Black carbon | amplify |
Glacier mass loss | soot on snow and ice absorbs sunlight | medium |
| Ice-shelf disintegration | amplify |
West Antarctic ice sheet collapse | loss of buttressing speeds glacier flow | tinggi |
| Ice-shelf disintegration | amplify |
Kenaikan muka air laut | released glaciers speed ice discharge | tinggi |
| Hilangnya es laut | amplify |
Arctic winter sea-ice collapse | thinner ice reforms less each winter | medium |
| Antarctic sea-ice regime shift | amplify |
Ice-shelf disintegration | waves and warm water reach exposed shelf fronts | medium |
| Glacier mass loss | trigger |
Post-peak glacier meltwater decline | shrinking ice area passes peak meltwater | tinggi |
| Boreal forest northern advance | amplify |
Permafrost thaw | darker surface and shading change ground heat balance | medium |
| Permafrost thaw | trigger |
Permafrost carbon release | thawed organic matter decomposes | tinggi |
| Permafrost thaw | trigger |
Permafrost thaw slump | ground ice melts and slopes collapse | tinggi |
| Permafrost thaw | trigger |
Rock glacier destabilisation | warmer ice cement weakens | medium |
| Permafrost thaw slump | compound-with |
Abrupt permafrost thaw emission | the same ground collapse exposes deep carbon | medium |
| Volcanic unrest | trigger |
Subglacial outburst flood | volcanic heat melts ice from below | tinggi |
| Glacier surge | trigger |
Natural-dam outburst flood | advancing ice dams a valley | medium |
| Rock glacier destabilisation | trigger |
Debris flow | loosened debris is mobilised by rain | medium |
| Lake and river ice loss | amplify |
Food supply-chain breakdown | winter roads to remote communities fail | medium |
| Windstorm | trigger |
Shoreline ice shove | wind drives ice onshore | tinggi |
Risk classes in this domain
Risk classes are Hazard Standard tags with published criteria; a tag is not a severity value.
Global risk
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it.
Risk type
5 hazardsPlanetary risk
A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole.
Risk type
1 hazardsRisiko katastrofik
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from.
Risk type
1 hazardsEmerging risk
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature.
Risk type
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms, standards, learning and working groups across GCRI, GRF and GRA for the systems these hazards act on.
Propose a change to Hazard Standard
Definitions and relations are a draft for expert review; corrections follow the standards development process.
Status
Metodologi, struktur, dan definisi The Global Risks Index merupakan draf kerja persiapan (2026), yang diedarkan untuk ditinjau dan dikomentari, bukan untuk diterapkan. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan sampai sebuah edisi dirilis dari pemotongan bukti yang diatur; nilai-nilai tersebut kemudian memuat interval, kelas, sumber, dan jalur koreksinya. Simulator menjalankan metode yang diterbitkan pada angka yang Anda pilih dan tidak pernah menampilkan nilai NXS-GRX.
Apa yang bukan NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX adalah informasi riset dan analitik risiko. NXS-GRX bukan peringkat kredit atau ESG dan tidak memakai skala peringkat, bukan acuan untuk instrumen keuangan, bukan statistik resmi, bukan peringatan darurat atau klasifikasi resmi, dan bukan nasihat. NXS-GRX tidak boleh digunakan untuk menilai orang perseorangan. Kelas risiko adalah pita pada skala yang diterbitkan, tidak pernah peringkat negara atau orang.
Lembaga dan sumber
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Setiap nilai memuat atribusi sumbernya, yang tetap memiliki lisensinya masing-masing. Nama-nama eksternal dikutip semata-mata untuk interoperabilitas. Teks yang disusun Nexus direncanakan berlisensi CC BY 4.0 saat dirilis.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.