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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-17 · Exponential technology series

Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure

Distributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-17Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-17 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Vielezo vya nyanja

3

Financial stability risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.

Viashiria

66

3 index domains

Hazard families

22

Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems.

Mbinu

113

Financial risk · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
domain indices
66
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
3
client groups

01Wigo

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where do ledgers touch essential services?
  2. What financial-stability channels exist?
  3. How is failure governed?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure index is built

Graph7 nodes
Graph
01Vielezo vya nyanja
02Series index
03Readings

100%
List
  1. Financial stability risk

    Domain index · IDX · FIN
    Expert-weighted Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0–10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
  2. Cyber risk

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Technology concentration risk

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-17
    Distributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Vielezo

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-17 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Kielezo Value Change Change % 90% interval Class · probability Trend Range
Financial stability riskNXS-GRX · FIN – – – – –
Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Financial system, Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital.

04Viashiria

66 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FIN · 32CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicator Domain Sub-domain Component Unit Ngazi Crosswalks
Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT
Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT
Common Equity Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCET_PT
Capital to total assets (leverage)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS
Non-performing loans net of provisions to capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital FIN Capital adequacy vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT
Non-performing loans to total gross loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS
Provisions to non-performing loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl FIN Asset quality coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSPN_PT
Loan concentration by economic activityIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT
Bank claims on general government, share of bank assetsIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT
Return on assetsIND.FIN.earnings.roa FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERA_PT
Return on equityIND.FIN.earnings.roe FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERE_PT
Liquid assets to total assetsIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS
Liquid assets to short-term liabilitiesIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLS_PT
Liquidity coverage ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT
Net stable funding ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT
Customer deposits to total non-interbank loansIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCD_PT
Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT
Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFC_PT
Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT
Domestic credit to the private sector, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion context % COUNTRY WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14
Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY
Real growth of credit to the private sectorIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT
Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT
Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Real residential property price growthIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT
House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run averageIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY, CITY
Assets of other financial corporations, share of GDPIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp FIN Non-bank financial intermediation context % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT
Insurance penetration (premiums to GDP)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration FIN Non-bank financial intermediation coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10
Natural-catastrophe protection gapIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap FIN Non-bank financial intermediation vulnerability % REGION, COUNTRY
Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
GDP in sectors highly dependent on nature, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Baseline water stress score (sub-basin)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress WAT Water stress hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI organisational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Akili bandia vulnerability % COUNTRY
Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Akili bandia vulnerability % COUNTRY
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Sovereign catastrophe risk transfer limit, share of GDPIND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
Natural-catastrophe insurance protection gapIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap CRS Risk financing and protection gap vulnerability % COUNTRY
Non-life insurance premiums, share of GDPIND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
05Majanga

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformationFrontier157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Family Domain Majanga Count
AI system failure and misalignment Frontier and exponential technology AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Frontier and exponential technology Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Frontier and exponential technology AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Frontier and exponential technology Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Frontier and exponential technology Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Frontier and exponential technology Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology Frontier and exponential technology Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Frontier and exponential technology Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Frontier and exponential technology Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Frontier and exponential technology Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Climate intervention technologies Frontier and exponential technology Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Frontier and exponential technology Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Frontier and exponential technology Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Frontier and exponential technology 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Frontier and exponential technology Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Frontier and exponential technology Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Malicious compromise Information and cyber-physical systems Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Information and cyber-physical systems Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Information and cyber-physical systems Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Information and cyber-physical systems Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Information and cyber-physical systems Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Information and cyber-physical systems Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
06Mbinu

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

57 methods

Financial risk

Probability of Default · Loss Given Default · Exposure at Default · Expected Credit Loss · Unexpected Credit Loss · Credit Migration · Structural Credit Merton …

56 methods

Cyber, AI and frontier technology

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

08Ripoti

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-17
Edition status
planned
Mada
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure series (GRX-SER-XT-17), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-17/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000104.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-17:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Wasifu wa nchi Mfululizo wote

Hali

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

NXS-GRX si nini

NXS-GRX ni taarifa ya utafiti na uchambuzi wa hatari. Si daraja la mikopo wala la ESG na haitumii kipimo chochote cha daraja, si kigezo cha vyombo vya fedha, si takwimu rasmi, si onyo la dharura wala uainishaji rasmi, na si ushauri. Haipaswi kutumiwa kutathmini watu binafsi. Madaraja ya hatari ni mikanda kwenye kipimo kilichochapishwa, kamwe si mpangilio wa nchi au watu.

Taasisi na vyanzo

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.