The Global Risks Index · XT-13 · Exponential technology series
能源转型技术
电池、氢能、电网储能、可再生能源及其供应链、故障模式和转型风险。
Page GRX-SER-XT-13Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-13 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
领域指数
1
气候转型暴露
指标
111
4 index domains
Hazard families
29
Frontier and exponential technology · Built systems
方法
56
Energy risk · Markets, trade and supply chains.
1
领域指数
111
indicators in scope
2
危害领域
4
client groups
01范围
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which transition technologies carry concentrated supply risk?
- What new failure modes do they introduce?
- How do they shift energy security?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Energy transition technologies index is built
Graph5 nodes
流程图
01领域指数
02Series index
03Readings
100%
索引
-
气候转型暴露Domain index · IDX · CLI0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
-
Energy transition technologies indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-13电池、氢能、电网储能、可再生能源及其供应链、故障模式和转型风险。
-
Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未运行进行中已完成
03指数
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-13 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy transition technologies index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
| 指数 | 数值 | 变化 | 变化 % | 90% 区间 | 类别 · 概率 | 趋势 | 范围 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
气候转型暴露NXS-GRX · CLI |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Energy, Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Climate.
04指标
111 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
货物和服务出口，现价美元IND.MAC.external.exports.usd |
MAC | External balance and reserves | context | [USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD |
贸易条件波动性（10 年）IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility |
MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
自然资源收入，占广义政府收入比重IND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share |
FIS | Revenue | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
银行对碳密集行业的风险暴露IND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure |
FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
面临高物理气候风险的银行贷款IND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending |
FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
贸易开放度（进出口总额，占 GDP 比重）IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp |
ECO | 贸易 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
国际旅游收入，占出口比重IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports |
ECO | 贸易 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
收到的个人汇款，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp |
ECO | 贸易 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
收到的官方发展援助净额，占 GNI 比重IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni |
ECO | 贸易 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
出口产品集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
出口市场集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
大宗商品出口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
制成品，占商品出口比重IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
自然资源租金，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
经济复杂度指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity |
ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
食品进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
燃料进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
进口来源集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
总出口中的国外增加值占比IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
中间品进口供应方集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
外国直接投资净流入，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp |
ECO | 投资 | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
相对工业化前的地表升温IND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial |
CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
年降水量变化IND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change |
CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
相对海平面上升速率IND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend |
CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
年内最热日（TXx）IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
暖日占比（TX90p）IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
酷热日数变化（35 °C 及以上）IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
暖期持续时间（WSDI）IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
年内最大日降水量（Rx1day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
年内最大五日降水量（Rx5day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
极端湿润日降水量（R95pTOT）IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
最长连续干旱日数（CDD）IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % |
SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
相对工业化前的预估升温IND.CLI.projection.projected_warming |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
最热日气温预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
最大五日降水量预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
预估相对海平面上升IND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
低于未来 100 年一遇沿海洪水水位的人口占比IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share |
CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
温室气体排放总量（不含 LULUCF）IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
人均温室气体排放量IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
GDP 碳强度IND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a |
PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
化石燃料租金，占 GDP 比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
燃料出口，占商品出口比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
显性化石燃料补贴，占 GDP 比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
NDC 2030 全经济范围排放目标IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition |
CLI | Transition exposure | response | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
已提交国家适应计划IND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
适应投资的经济准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
适应的治理准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
适应的社会准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
人均获得的国际适应资金IND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] |
COUNTRY | |
海拔 5 m 以下人口占比IND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share |
HAZ | Coastal and sea level | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
严重气象干旱频率IND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency |
HAZ | 干旱 | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR |
每年危险湿热日数IND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501 |
每年极端火险天气日数IND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days |
HAZ | 野火 | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
年树木覆盖损失率IND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | EPI TCL |
每年海洋热浪日数IND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days |
ENV | Ocean | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, REGION, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708 |
高度依赖自然的行业 GDP 占比IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share |
ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | |
水资源压力水平IND.WAT.stress.water_stress |
WAT | 水资源压力 | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS |
用水效率IND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency |
WAT | 水资源压力 | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
依赖 GNSS 的活动所产生的 GDP 占比IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
位于高地电危害区的高压电网占比IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
疟疾发病率IND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA |
谷物进口依赖率IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
食品进口支出，占商品出口比重IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports |
FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
农林渔业增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
农业就业，占总就业比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
谷物单产波动性（15 年）IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
耕地植被健康指数IND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | |
营商环境得分（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
用电人口IND.ENE.access.electricity_access |
ENE | 访问 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
主要依靠清洁烹饪燃料和技术的人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking |
ENE | 访问 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
人均用电量IND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc |
ENE | 访问 | context | kW.h/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
可再生能源在最终能源消费总量中的占比IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
GDP 一次能源强度IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
发电结构集中度IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
化石能源发电占比IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
人均可再生能源装机容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
依赖水的发电占比IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
能源净进口依赖度IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
燃料进口支出，占货物和服务出口比重IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
原油及成品油进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
天然气进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
煤炭进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
石油储备可满足净进口天数IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | coping capacity | d |
COUNTRY | |
企业在典型月份遭遇的停电次数IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
停电造成的损失，占企业销售额比重IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss |
ENE | Reliability | impact | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
系统平均停电持续时间（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
系统平均停电频率（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
输配电损耗IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
采暖和制冷度日数IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days |
ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
物流绩效IND.INF.transport.logistics_performance |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
班轮运输连通性（相对前沿水平）IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
电网韧性IND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
位于高危害区的发电和电网资产占比IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
基础设施投资缺口，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp |
INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours |
INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a |
CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
ICT 服务增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
研发总支出，占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
高技术出口，占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | 生物技术 | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY |
05危害
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| 类别 | 领域 | 危害 | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | 前沿与指数型技术 | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | 前沿与指数型技术 | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | 前沿与指数型技术 | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| 生物技术与合成生物学 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | 前沿与指数型技术 | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | 前沿与指数型技术 | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| 气候干预技术 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | 前沿与指数型技术 | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | 前沿与指数型技术 | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | 前沿与指数型技术 | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | 前沿与指数型技术 | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Structural and civil failure | 建成系统 | Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture | 8 |
| Utility and communication network outage | 建成系统 | Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure | 6 |
| Transport accidents | 建成系统 | Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash | 5 |
| Industrial and process accidents | 建成系统 | Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … | 15 |
| Energy system instability and shortfall | 建成系统 | Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … | 22 |
| Water and wastewater system failure | 建成系统 | Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … | 9 |
| Telecom and data-centre failure | 建成系统 | Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss | 8 |
| Space-based service loss | 建成系统 | Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure | 4 |
| Seabed infrastructure damage | 建成系统 | Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage | 3 |
| Transport network disruption | 建成系统 | Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … | 12 |
| Food system infrastructure failure | 建成系统 | Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production | 5 |
| Urban and building-stock stress | 建成系统 | Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure | 6 |
| Ageing and degraded infrastructure | 建成系统 | Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage | 7 |
06路径
How this risk can move to 2100
FIG 5 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
–
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07方法
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
26 methods
能源风险
Generation Adequacy · Load Forecasting · Renewable Intermittency · Reserve Margin · Loss of Load Probability · Expected Unserved Energy · Grid Reliability …
30 methods
市场、贸易与供应链
Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …
08Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors
Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.
International financial institutions and development banks
Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.
09报告
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-13- Edition status
- 计划中
- 主题
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
10引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy transition technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-13), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-13/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000100.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-13:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.