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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-13 · Exponential technology series

에너지 전환 기술

배터리, 수소, 전력망 저장, 재생에너지와 그 공급망, 실패 양상, 전환 리스크.

Construction Indicators Pathways
Page GRX-SER-XT-13Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-13 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
영역 지수

1

기후 전환 노출

지표

111

4 index domains

Hazard families

29

Frontier and exponential technology · Built systems

방법론

56

Energy risk · Markets, trade and supply chains.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
영역 지수
111
indicators in scope
2
재해 영역
4
client groups

01범위

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which transition technologies carry concentrated supply risk?
  2. What new failure modes do they introduce?
  3. How do they shift energy security?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Energy transition technologies index is built

Graph5 nodes
그래프
01영역 지수
02Series index
03Readings

100%
색인
  1. 기후 전환 노출

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  2. Energy transition technologies index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-13
    배터리, 수소, 전력망 저장, 재생에너지와 그 공급망, 실패 양상, 전환 리스크.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
실행 전진행 중완료
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03지수

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-13 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy transition technologies index, world
–
값은 판과 함께 게시되며, 구간, 등급, 변화가 여기에 표시됩니다.
지수 값 변화 변화 % 90% 구간 등급 · 확률 추세 범위
기후 전환 노출NXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –

Domains read: Energy, Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Climate.

04지표

111 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31ENE · 23ECO · 18TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
지표 영역 Sub-domain 구성 요소 단위 단계 Crosswalks
재화 및 서비스 수출, 현재 미국 달러IND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
교역조건 변동성(10년)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
천연자원 수입, 일반정부 수입 대비 비율IND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
탄소 집약 부문에 대한 은행 노출IND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
높은 물리적 기후 리스크에 노출된 은행 대출IND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
무역 개방도(수출과 수입 합계, GDP 대비 비율)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO 무역 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
국제 관광 수입, 수출 대비 비율IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO 무역 vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
개인 송금 유입, GDP 대비 비율IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO 무역 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
공적개발원조 순수취액, GNI 대비 비율IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO 무역 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
수출 품목 집중도(정규화 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
수출 시장 집중도(정규화 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
원자재 수출 의존도IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
공산품, 상품 수출 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
천연자원 지대, GDP 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
경제 복잡성 지수IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
식품 수입, 상품 수입 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
연료 수입, 상품 수입 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
핵심 광물 순수입 의존도IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
수입 원산지 집중도(정규화 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
총수출 중 해외 부가가치 비중IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
중간재 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
해상 병목 지점에 노출된 해상 무역IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
외국인직접투자 순유입, GDP 대비 비율IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO 투자 coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
산업화 이전 대비 지표면 온난화IND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial CLI Chronic physical change hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID FAO_FAOSTAT ET
연 강수량 변화IND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change CLI Chronic physical change hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
상대 해수면 상승 속도IND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend CLI Chronic physical change hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
연중 최고 일최고기온(TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx CLI Acute climate extremes hazard Cel COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
온난일 비율(TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
폭염일(35 °C 이상) 변화IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
온난 기간 지속일수(WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
연중 최다 일강수량(Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
연중 최다 5일 강수량(Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
극한 다우일 강수량(R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
최장 연속 건조일수(CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
산업화 이전 대비 예상 온난화IND.CLI.projection.projected_warming CLI Scenario projections hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
연중 최고기온의 예상 변화IND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change CLI Scenario projections hazard K COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
최다 5일 강수량의 예상 변화IND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change CLI Scenario projections hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
예상 상대 해수면 상승IND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise CLI Scenario projections hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
미래 100년 빈도 해안 홍수 수위 아래 인구, 비율IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share CLI Scenario projections exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
LULUCF 제외 온실가스 총배출량IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
1인당 온실가스 배출량IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita CLI Emissions exposure t/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
GDP 탄소 집약도IND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
화석연료 지대, GDP 대비 비율IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
연료 수출, 상품 수출 대비 비율IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
명시적 화석연료 보조금, GDP 대비 비율IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
NDC 2030 경제 전반 배출 목표IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition CLI Transition exposure response % COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
국가 적응 계획 제출 여부IND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {bool} COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
적응 투자에 대한 경제적 준비도IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
적응에 대한 거버넌스 준비도IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
적응에 대한 사회적 준비도IND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
1인당 국제 적응 재원 수취액IND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity [USD] COUNTRY
해발 5 m 이하 인구, 비율IND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
심각한 기상학적 가뭄 빈도IND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ 가뭄 hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
연간 위험한 습열 일수IND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
연간 극한 산불 기상 일수IND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days HAZ 산불 hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
연간 수목 피복 손실률IND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID EPI TCL
연간 해양 폭염 일수IND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days ENV Ocean hazard d/a COUNTRY, REGION, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708
자연 의존도가 높은 부문의 GDP, 비율IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
물 스트레스 수준IND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT 물 스트레스 hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
물 이용 효율IND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT 물 스트레스 adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
GNSS 의존 활동의 GDP, 비율IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
지자기 재해 고위험 지역 내 고압 송전망, 비율IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
말라리아 발생률IND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
곡물 수입 의존 비율IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
식품 수입액, 상품 수출 대비 비율IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
농림어업 부가가치, GDP 대비 비율IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
농업 고용, 총고용 대비 비율IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
곡물 수확량 변동성(15년)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
경작지 식생 건강 지수IND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
기업 환경 점수(B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
전기를 이용할 수 있는 인구IND.ENE.access.electricity_access ENE 이용 vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
청정 조리 연료와 기술에 주로 의존하는 인구IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE 이용 vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
1인당 전력 소비량IND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc ENE 이용 context kW.h/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
최종 에너지 소비 중 재생에너지 비중IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
GDP 1차 에너지 집약도IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
발전원 구성 집중도IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration ENE Energy mix vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
발전량 중 화석연료 비중IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
1인당 재생에너지 설비 용량IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
물 의존 발전량, 비율IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1
순에너지 수입 의존도IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports ENE Supply security and import dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
연료 수입액, 재화 및 서비스 수출 대비 비율IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
원유 및 석유제품 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
천연가스 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
석탄 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
순수입 일수 기준 석유 비축량IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks ENE Supply security and import dependence coping capacity d COUNTRY
일반적인 한 달 동안 기업이 겪는 정전 횟수IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
정전으로 인한 손실액, 기업 매출 대비 비율IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss ENE Reliability impact % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
계통 평균 정전 시간(SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
계통 평균 정전 빈도(SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
송배전 손실IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses ENE Reliability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
난방 및 냉방 도일IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
핵심 광물 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
핵심 광물 수입 중 최대 단일 공급처 비중IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
물류 성과IND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
최고 수준 대비 정기선 해운 연결성IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
전력망 회복력IND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
고위험 재해 지역 내 발전 및 전력망 자산, 비율IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
인프라 투자 격차, GDP 대비 비율IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
ICT 서비스 부가가치, GDP 대비 비율IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
국내 총 R&D 지출, GDP 대비 비율IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
주민 100만 명당 연구원 수IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
첨단기술 수출, 제조업 수출 대비 비율IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
반도체 수입 공급처 집중도IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
클라우드 인프라 제공자 집중도IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
외국 또는 단일 제공자가 통제하는 AI 컴퓨팅 역량IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC 인공지능 vulnerability % COUNTRY
파운데이션 모델 제공자 집중도IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC 인공지능 vulnerability % COUNTRY
고위험 밀폐 실험실의 생물안전 및 생물보안 감독IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC 생명공학 coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05재해

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Built프런티어219HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 29 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
계열 영역 재해 Count
AI system failure and misalignment 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
생명공학과 합성생물학 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
기후 개입 기술 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Structural and civil failure 건조 시스템 Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture 8
Utility and communication network outage 건조 시스템 Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure 6
Transport accidents 건조 시스템 Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash 5
Industrial and process accidents 건조 시스템 Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … 15
Energy system instability and shortfall 건조 시스템 Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … 22
Water and wastewater system failure 건조 시스템 Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … 9
Telecom and data-centre failure 건조 시스템 Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss 8
Space-based service loss 건조 시스템 Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure 4
Seabed infrastructure damage 건조 시스템 Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage 3
Transport network disruption 건조 시스템 Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … 12
Food system infrastructure failure 건조 시스템 Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production 5
Urban and building-stock stress 건조 시스템 Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure 6
Ageing and degraded infrastructure 건조 시스템 Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage 7
06경로

How this risk can move to 2100

FIG 5 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
4
0.35
0.45
10
1
–
브라우저에서 실행됨

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
07방법론

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

26 methods

에너지 리스크

Generation Adequacy · Load Forecasting · Renewable Intermittency · Reserve Margin · Loss of Load Probability · Expected Unserved Energy · Grid Reliability …

30 methods

시장, 무역, 공급망

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

08Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

09보고서

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-13
Edition status
계획
주제
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10인용

인용과 재사용

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy transition technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-13), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-13/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000100.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-13:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

국가 개요 모든 시리즈

상태

Global Risks Index의 방법론, 구조, 정의는 검토와 의견 수렴을 위해 배포된 예비 작업 초안(2026)이며 이행용이 아닙니다. 관리되는 근거 마감에 따라 판이 공개되기 전까지는 어떠한 값도 표시되지 않으며, 공개 후 값에는 구간, 등급, 출처, 정정 경로가 함께 표시됩니다. 시뮬레이터는 귀하가 선택한 숫자에 공개된 방법을 적용할 뿐이며 NXS-GRX 값을 표시하지 않습니다.

NXS-GRX가 아닌 것

NXS-GRX는 연구 및 리스크 분석 정보입니다. 신용등급이나 ESG 등급이 아니며 등급 척도를 사용하지 않고, 금융상품의 벤치마크도, 공식 통계도, 긴급 경보나 공식 분류도, 자문도 아닙니다. 자연인 평가에 사용해서는 안 됩니다. 리스크 등급은 공개된 척도 위의 구간이며, 국가나 사람의 순위가 결코 아닙니다.

기관과 출처

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

모든 값에는 출처 표시가 함께 제공되며, 각 출처는 고유한 라이선스를 유지합니다. 외부 명칭은 상호운용성을 위해서만 인용됩니다. Nexus가 작성한 텍스트는 공개 시 CC BY 4.0 적용을 예정합니다.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.