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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-13 · Exponential technology series

エネルギー移行技術

電池、水素、系統用蓄電、再生可能エネルギー、そしてそのサプライチェーン、故障モード、移行リスク。

Construction Indicators Pathways
Page GRX-SER-XT-13Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-13 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
分野別指数

1

気候移行エクスポージャー

指標

111

4 index domains

Hazard families

29

Frontier and exponential technology · Built systems

手法

56

Energy risk · Markets, trade and supply chains.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
分野別指数
111
indicators in scope
2
ハザードの分野
4
client groups

01対象範囲

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which transition technologies carry concentrated supply risk?
  2. What new failure modes do they introduce?
  3. How do they shift energy security?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Energy transition technologies index is built

Graph5 nodes
グラフ
01分野別指数
02Series index
03Readings

100%
索引
  1. 気候移行エクスポージャー

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  2. Energy transition technologies index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-13
    電池、水素、系統用蓄電、再生可能エネルギー、そしてそのサプライチェーン、故障モード、移行リスク。
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未実行進行中完了
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03指数

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-13 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy transition technologies index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
インデックス 値 変化 変化 % 90% 区間 区分 · 確率 傾向 幅
気候移行エクスポージャーNXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –

Domains read: Energy, Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Climate.

04指標

111 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31ENE · 23ECO · 18TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指標 分野 Sub-domain 構成要素 単位 レベル Crosswalks
財・サービスの輸出（名目、米ドル）IND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
交易条件の変動性（10 年）IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
天然資源収入（一般政府歳入に占める割合）IND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
炭素集約型セクターへの銀行のエクスポージャーIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
物理的気候リスクの高い銀行貸出IND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
貿易開放度（輸出と輸入の合計、GDP 比）IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO 貿易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
国際観光収入（輸出に占める割合）IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO 貿易 vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
個人送金受取額（GDP 比）IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO 貿易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
政府開発援助の純受取額（GNI 比）IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO 貿易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
輸出品目の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
輸出市場の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
一次産品輸出への依存度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
工業製品（商品輸出に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
天然資源レント（GDP 比）IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
経済複雑性指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
食料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
燃料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
重要鉱物の純輸入依存度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
輸入元の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
総輸出に占める海外付加価値の割合IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
中間財輸入の供給元集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
海上交通の要衝にさらされる海上貿易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
海外直接投資の純流入（GDP 比）IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO 投資 coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
産業革命前からの地表温暖化IND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial CLI Chronic physical change hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID FAO_FAOSTAT ET
年間降水量の変化IND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change CLI Chronic physical change hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
相対的海面上昇率IND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend CLI Chronic physical change hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
年最高気温（TXx）IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx CLI Acute climate extremes hazard Cel COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
暖かい日の割合（TX90p）IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
猛暑日（35 °C 以上）の変化IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
暖候期の継続期間（WSDI）IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
年最大日降水量（Rx1day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
年最大 5 日間降水量（Rx5day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
非常に湿潤な日の降水量（R95pTOT）IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
最長連続無降水日数（CDD）IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
産業革命前からの予測温暖化IND.CLI.projection.projected_warming CLI Scenario projections hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
年最高気温の予測変化IND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change CLI Scenario projections hazard K COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
最大 5 日間降水量の予測変化IND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change CLI Scenario projections hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
予測される相対的海面上昇IND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise CLI Scenario projections hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
将来の 100 年確率の沿岸洪水水位より低い場所の人口（割合）IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share CLI Scenario projections exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
LULUCF を除く温室効果ガス総排出量IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
1 人あたり温室効果ガス排出量IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita CLI Emissions exposure t/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
GDP の炭素集約度IND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
化石燃料レント（GDP 比）IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
燃料輸出（商品輸出に占める割合）IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
明示的な化石燃料補助金（GDP 比）IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
NDC 2030 経済全体の排出目標IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition CLI Transition exposure response % COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
国家適応計画の提出IND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {bool} COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
適応投資に向けた経済的準備度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
適応に向けたガバナンスの準備度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
適応に向けた社会的準備度IND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
1 人あたり国際適応資金の受取額IND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity [USD] COUNTRY
標高 5 m 未満の人口（割合）IND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
深刻な気象干ばつの頻度IND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ 干ばつ hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
危険な湿潤暑熱の年間日数IND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
極端な火災気象の年間日数IND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days HAZ 林野火災 hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
樹木被覆の年間喪失率IND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID EPI TCL
年間の海洋熱波日数IND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days ENV Ocean hazard d/a COUNTRY, REGION, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708
自然への依存度が高いセクターの GDP（割合）IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
水ストレスの水準IND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT 水ストレス hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
水利用効率IND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT 水ストレス adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
GNSS に依存する活動の GDP（割合）IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
地電界ハザードの高い地域にある高圧送電網（割合）IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
マラリア罹患率IND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
穀物輸入依存率IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
食料輸入額（商品輸出比）IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
農林水産業の付加価値（GDP 比）IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
農業就業者（総就業者に占める割合）IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
穀物収量の変動性（15 年）IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
耕地の植生健全度指数（Vegetation Health Index）IND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
ビジネス環境スコア（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
電力を利用できる人口IND.ENE.access.electricity_access ENE アクセス vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
主にクリーンな調理用燃料・技術に頼る人口IND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE アクセス vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
1 人あたり電力消費量IND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc ENE アクセス context kW.h/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
最終エネルギー消費総量に占める再生可能エネルギーの割合IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
GDP の一次エネルギー原単位IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
電源構成の集中度IND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration ENE Energy mix vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
発電量に占める化石燃料の割合IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
1 人あたり再生可能エネルギー設備容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
水に依存する発電（割合）IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1
エネルギーの純輸入依存度IND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports ENE Supply security and import dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
燃料輸入額（財・サービスの輸出比）IND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
原油・石油製品の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
天然ガスの輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
石炭の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
石油備蓄（純輸入日数）IND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks ENE Supply security and import dependence coping capacity d COUNTRY
典型的な 1 か月に企業が経験する停電IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
停電による損失額（企業売上高に占める割合）IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss ENE Reliability impact % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
系統平均停電時間（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
系統平均停電頻度（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
送配電損失IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses ENE Reliability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
冷暖房度日IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
重要鉱物輸入に占める最大供給元の割合IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
物流パフォーマンスIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
最前線に対する定期船輸送の接続性IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
電力網のレジリエンスIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
高ハザード地域の発電・送電網設備（割合）IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
インフラ投資ギャップ（GDP 比）IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
ICT サービスの付加価値（GDP 比）IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
研究開発費総額（GDP 比）IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
人口 100 万人あたり研究者数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
ハイテク輸出（工業製品輸出に占める割合）IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
半導体の輸入供給元集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
クラウド・インフラ提供者の集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
外国または単一提供者の管理下にある AI 計算能力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
基盤モデル提供者の集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
高度封じ込め実験施設のバイオセーフティとバイオセキュリティの監督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC バイオテクノロジー coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05ハザード

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Builtフロンティア219HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 29 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
ファミリー 分野 ハザード Count
AI system failure and misalignment フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
バイオテクノロジーと合成生物学 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
気候介入技術 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Structural and civil failure 建造システム Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture 8
Utility and communication network outage 建造システム Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure 6
Transport accidents 建造システム Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash 5
Industrial and process accidents 建造システム Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … 15
Energy system instability and shortfall 建造システム Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … 22
Water and wastewater system failure 建造システム Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … 9
Telecom and data-centre failure 建造システム Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss 8
Space-based service loss 建造システム Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure 4
Seabed infrastructure damage 建造システム Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage 3
Transport network disruption 建造システム Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … 12
Food system infrastructure failure 建造システム Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production 5
Urban and building-stock stress 建造システム Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure 6
Ageing and degraded infrastructure 建造システム Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage 7
06経路

How this risk can move to 2100

FIG 5 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
4
0.35
0.45
10
1
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ブラウザで動作

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
07手法

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

26 methods

エネルギー・リスク

Generation Adequacy · Load Forecasting · Renewable Intermittency · Reserve Margin · Loss of Load Probability · Expected Unserved Energy · Grid Reliability …

30 methods

市場、貿易、サプライチェーン

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

08Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

09レポート

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-13
Edition status
予定
対象
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10引用

引用と再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy transition technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-13), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-13/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000100.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-13:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

国別プロファイル すべてのシリーズ

ステータス

The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。

NXS-GRX ではないもの

NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。

機関と情報源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.