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Il Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-07 · Exponential technology series

Osservazione della Terra e sistemi spaziali

Dipendenza dai satelliti per navigazione, comunicazioni e osservazione; congestione orbitale, detriti ed esposizione alla meteorologia spaziale.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-07Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-07 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indici di dominio

1

Esposizione alla meteorologia spaziale

Indicatori

56

3 index domains

Hazard families

18

Space and near-Earth · Frontier and exponential technology.

Metodi

64

Hazard science · Critical infrastructure and industrial systems.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
indici di dominio
56
indicators in scope
2
domini di pericolo
3
client groups

01Ambito

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which services depend on space systems?
  2. How exposed are orbits to congestion and debris?
  3. What would a severe space-weather event disable?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Earth observation and space systems index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafo
01Indici di dominio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Indice
  1. Esposizione alla meteorologia spaziale

    Domain index · IDX · SPC
    0–10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.
  2. Earth observation and space systems index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-07
    Dipendenza dai satelliti per navigazione, comunicazioni e osservazione; congestione orbitale, detriti ed esposizione alla meteorologia spaziale.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indici

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-07 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Earth observation and space systems index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Indice Valore Variazione Variazione % Intervallo al 90% Classe · probabilità Tendenza Intervallo
Esposizione alla meteorologia spazialeNXS-GRX · SPC – – – – –

Domains read: Space environment, Technology and frontier, Infrastructure.

04Indicatori

56 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24TEC · 8SPC · 6
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicatore Dominio Sub-domain Componente Unità Livelli Crosswalks
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Standard di progetto della protezione dalle alluvioniIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Superficie edificataIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ Esposizione context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Area edificata in zone ad alto pericoloIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ Esposizione exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Densità stradaleIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Rifiuti solidi urbani gestiti in impianti controllatiIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
Flussi di acque reflue trattati in modo sicuroIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_days SPC Meteorologia spaziale hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0101 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-geo
Ampiezza del campo geoelettrico con periodo di ritorno di 100 anniIND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100 SPC Meteorologia spaziale hazard V/km COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_days SPC Meteorologia spaziale hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0104 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-ene
PIL in attività dipendenti dai GNSS, quotaIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Servizi critici che dipendono da satelliti senza sistemi di riserva, quotaIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Rete ad alta tensione in zone ad alto pericolo geoelettrico, quotaIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Tempo di percorrenza fino alla struttura sanitaria più vicinaIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Popolazione urbana, quota del totaleIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Crescita della popolazione urbanaIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Popolazione urbana che vive in baraccopoliIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Interruzioni di corrente subite dalle imprese in un mese tipicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Durata media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Frequenza media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Popolazione rurale entro 2 km da una strada percorribile in ogni stagioneIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.1.1
Prestazioni logisticheIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Connettività del trasporto marittimo di linea rispetto alla frontieraIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Passeggeri aerei trasportati pro capiteIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc INF Transport coping capacity {passengers}/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
Popolazione urbana con comodo accesso al trasporto pubblicoIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Rete stradale e ferroviaria in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Persone che utilizzano InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Popolazione coperta da una rete mobile, per tecnologiaIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.c.1
Abbonamenti alla banda larga fissa per 100 abitantiIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband INF Digital connectivity coping capacity /10*2 COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
Ridondanza delle rotte di connettività internazionaleIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Ore di interruzione di Internet su scala nazionaleIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Resilienza della rete elettricaIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Resilienza della rete di approvvigionamento idricoIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Strutture critiche con alimentazione di riserva per 72 oreIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Infrastrutture di approvvigionamento idrico in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Impianti di generazione e rete elettrica in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Strutture salvavita in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Divario di investimenti infrastrutturali, quota del PILIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Unità di infrastrutture critiche danneggiate o distrutte da disastriIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
Strutture sanitarie danneggiate o distrutte da disastriIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
Strutture scolastiche danneggiate o distrutte da disastriIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Interruzioni dei servizi di base attribuite a disastriIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-5
Perdita economica diretta alle infrastrutture critiche, quota del PILIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
Incidenti informatici che interrompono servizi criticiIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Spesa interna lorda in R&S, quota del PILIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Ricercatori per milione di abitantiIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Esportazioni ad alta tecnologia, quota delle esportazioni manifatturiereIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentrazione dei fornitori di semiconduttori importatiIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di infrastrutture cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacità di calcolo per l'IA sotto controllo estero o di un unico fornitoreIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Intelligenza artificiale vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di modelli di baseIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Intelligenza artificiale vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisione di biosicurezza dei laboratori ad alto contenimentoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnologie coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Popolazione entro 15 minuti dai servizi di emergenzaIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Pericoli

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
IFrontiera126HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 18 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Famiglia Dominio Pericoli Count
Solar-terrestrial storms Spazio e ambiente circumterrestre Geomagnetic storm, Solar flare radio blackout, Solar radiation storm, Ionospheric disturbance, Geomagnetically induced current, Satellite space-environment anomaly, Thermospheric drag surge, Radiation-belt electron enhancement … 9
Impacts and orbital hazards Spazio e ambiente circumterrestre Near-Earth object approach, Meteorite impact, Airburst, Space debris, Orbital collision cascade, Uncontrolled re-entry, Spaceflight accident, Meteoroid stream encounter 8
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnologie e biologia sintetica Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologie di intervento climatico Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Metodi

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

37 methods

Scienza dei pericoli

Hazard Intensity Footprint Screening · Earthquake Hazard · Earthquake Ground Motion · Earthquake Rupture · Liquefaction · Landslide · Tsunami …

27 methods

Infrastrutture critiche e sistemi industriali

Asset Reliability · Process Safety · HAZOP · FMEA FMECA · Industrial Fault Tree · Industrial Event Tree · LOPA …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

08Rapporti

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-07
Edition status
prevista
Oggetto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Earth observation and space systems series (GRX-SER-XT-07), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-07/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000094.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-07:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.SPC.weather.space_weather_exposure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profili dei paesi Tutte le serie

Stato

La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.

Che cosa non è NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.

Istituzioni e fonti

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.