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⁨The Global Risks Index⁩

The Global Risks Index · XT-07 · Exponential technology series

مشاهدهٔ زمین و سامانه‌های فضایی

وابستگی به ماهواره‌ها برای ناوبری، ارتباطات و مشاهده؛ ازدحام مداری، پسماند فضایی و مواجهه با آب‌وهوای فضایی.

Page GRX-SER-XT-07Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-07 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
شاخص‌های حوزه

1

Space-weather exposure

شاخص‌ها

56

3 index domains

Hazard families

18

Space and near-Earth · Frontier and exponential technology.

روش‌ها

64

Hazard science · Critical infrastructure and industrial systems.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
شاخص‌های حوزه‌ای
56
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
3
client groups

01دامنه

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which services depend on space systems?
  2. How exposed are orbits to congestion and debris?
  3. What would a severe space-weather event disable?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Earth observation and space systems index is built

Graph5 nodes
گراف
01شاخص‌های حوزه
02Series index
03Readings

100%
نمایه
  1. Space-weather exposure

    Domain index · IDX · SPC
    0–10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.
  2. Earth observation and space systems index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-07
    وابستگی به ماهواره‌ها برای ناوبری، ارتباطات و مشاهده؛ ازدحام مداری، پسماند فضایی و مواجهه با آب‌وهوای فضایی.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
اجرا نشدهدر حال انجامانجام شد
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03شاخص‌ها

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-07 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Earth observation and space systems index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
شاخص مقدار تغییر تغییر % بازهٔ 90% رده · احتمال روند دامنه
Space-weather exposureNXS-GRX · SPC – – – – –

Domains read: Space environment, Technology and frontier, Infrastructure.

04شاخص‌ها

56 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24TEC · 8SPC · 6
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
نشانگر حوزه Sub-domain جزء واحد سطوح Crosswalks
اتکای خالص به واردات کانی‌های حیاتیIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
تجارت دریایی در مواجهه با گلوگاه‌های دریاییIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
استاندارد طراحی حفاظت در برابر سیلابIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
مساحت سطوح ساخته‌شدهIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ مواجهه context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
مساحت ساخته‌شده در پهنه‌های پرمخاطرهIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ مواجهه exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
تراکم جادهIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
پسماند جامد شهری مدیریت‌شده در تأسیسات کنترل‌شدهIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
جریان‌های فاضلابی که به‌صورت ایمن تصفیه می‌شوندIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_days SPC آب‌وهوای فضایی hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0101 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-geo
دامنهٔ میدان ژئوالکتریک در دورهٔ بازگشت 100 سالهIND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100 SPC آب‌وهوای فضایی hazard V/km COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_days SPC آب‌وهوای فضایی hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0104 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-ene
GDP در فعالیت‌های وابسته به GNSS، سهمIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
خدمات حیاتی متکی به ماهواره بدون پشتیبان، سهمIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
شبکهٔ فشار قوی در پهنه‌های با مخاطرهٔ ژئوالکتریک بالا، سهمIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
زمان سفر تا نزدیک‌ترین مرکز درمانیIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
جمعیت شهری، سهم از کلIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
رشد جمعیت شهریIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
جمعیت شهری ساکن سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمیIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
قطعی برق تجربه‌شده توسط شرکت‌ها در یک ماه معمولIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
میانگین مدت قطعی سامانه (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
میانگین دفعات قطعی سامانه (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات کانی‌های حیاتیIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
جمعیت روستایی در فاصلهٔ 2 km از جادهٔ همه‌فصلIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.1.1
عملکرد لجستیکIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
اتصال کشتیرانی خطی نسبت به مرز بهترین عملکردIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
مسافران هوایی جابه‌جاشده سرانهIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc INF Transport coping capacity {passengers}/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
جمعیت شهری با دسترسی آسان به حمل‌ونقل عمومیIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
شبکهٔ جاده و راه‌آهن در پهنه‌های پرمخاطره، سهمIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
افراد کاربر اینترنتIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
جمعیت تحت پوشش شبکهٔ تلفن همراه، بر اساس فناوریIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.c.1
اشتراک‌های پهن‌باند ثابت به ازای هر 100 نفرIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband INF Digital connectivity coping capacity /10*2 COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
افزونگی مسیرهای اتصال بین‌المللیIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
ساعات اختلال اینترنت در مقیاس ملیIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
تاب‌آوری شبکهٔ برقIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
تاب‌آوری شبکهٔ آبرسانیIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
تأسیسات حیاتی دارای برق پشتیبان 72 ساعتهIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
دارایی‌های آبرسانی در پهنه‌های پرمخاطره، سهمIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
دارایی‌های تولید برق و شبکه در پهنه‌های پرمخاطره، سهمIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
تأسیسات شریان‌های حیاتی در پهنه‌های پرمخاطره، سهمIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
شکاف سرمایه‌گذاری زیرساختی، سهم از GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
واحدهای زیرساخت‌های حیاتی آسیب‌دیده یا تخریب‌شده بر اثر سوانحIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
مراکز درمانی آسیب‌دیده یا تخریب‌شده بر اثر سوانحIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
مراکز آموزشی آسیب‌دیده یا تخریب‌شده بر اثر سوانحIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
اختلال در خدمات پایه ناشی از سوانحIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-5
زیان اقتصادی مستقیم به زیرساخت‌های حیاتی، سهم از GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
رویدادهای سایبری مختل‌کنندهٔ خدمات حیاتیIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
هزینهٔ ناخالص داخلی تحقیق و توسعه، سهم از GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
پژوهشگران به ازای هر میلیون نفرIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
صادرات فناوری پیشرفته، سهم از صادرات کالاهای ساخته‌شدهIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات نیمه‌رساناهاIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
تمرکز ارائه‌دهندگان زیرساخت ابریIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
ظرفیت رایانش هوش مصنوعی تحت کنترل خارجی یا تک‌ارائه‌دهندهIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC هوش مصنوعی vulnerability % COUNTRY
تمرکز ارائه‌دهندگان مدل‌های پایهIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC هوش مصنوعی vulnerability % COUNTRY
نظارت ایمنی زیستی و امنیت زیستی بر آزمایشگاه‌های با مهار بالاIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
جمعیت در فاصلهٔ 15 دقیقه از خدمات امدادیIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05مخاطرات

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
فضامرز پیشرو126HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 18 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
خانواده حوزه مخاطرات Count
Solar-terrestrial storms فضا و نزدیک زمین Geomagnetic storm, Solar flare radio blackout, Solar radiation storm, Ionospheric disturbance, Geomagnetically induced current, Satellite space-environment anomaly, Thermospheric drag surge, Radiation-belt electron enhancement … 9
Impacts and orbital hazards فضا و نزدیک زمین Near-Earth object approach, Meteorite impact, Airburst, Space debris, Orbital collision cascade, Uncontrolled re-entry, Spaceflight accident, Meteoroid stream encounter 8
AI system failure and misalignment فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
فناوری‌های مداخلهٔ اقلیمی فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets فناوری‌های پیشرو و نمایی Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06روش‌ها

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

37 methods

علم مخاطره

Hazard Intensity Footprint Screening · Earthquake Hazard · Earthquake Ground Motion · Earthquake Rupture · Liquefaction · Landslide · Tsunami …

27 methods

زیرساخت‌های حیاتی و سامانه‌های صنعتی

Asset Reliability · Process Safety · HAZOP · FMEA FMECA · Industrial Fault Tree · Industrial Event Tree · LOPA …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

08گزارش‌ها

⁨Nexus Reports⁩

Edition code
XT-07
Edition status
برنامه‌ریزی‌شده
موضوع
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

⁨Nexus Reports⁩

09استناد

استناد و استفادهٔ دوباره

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Earth observation and space systems series (GRX-SER-XT-07), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-07/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000094.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-07:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.SPC.weather.space_weather_exposure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.