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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-07 · Exponential technology series

Çavdêriya Erdê û pergalên fezayê

Girêdayîbûna peykan ji bo navîgasyon, ragihandin û çavdêriyê; qelebalixiya orbîtê, bermayî û rûbirûbûna hewaya fezayê.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-07Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-07 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Îndeksên waran

1

Space-weather exposure

Nîşander

56

3 index domains

Hazard families

18

Space and near-Earth · Frontier and exponential technology.

Rêbaz

64

Hazard science · Critical infrastructure and industrial systems.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
domain indices
56
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
3
client groups

01Çarçove

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which services depend on space systems?
  2. How exposed are orbits to congestion and debris?
  3. What would a severe space-weather event disable?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Earth observation and space systems index is built

Graph5 nodes
Grafîk
01Îndeksên waran
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Lîste
  1. Space-weather exposure

    Domain index · IDX · SPC
    0–10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.
  2. Earth observation and space systems index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-07
    Girêdayîbûna peykan ji bo navîgasyon, ragihandin û çavdêriyê; qelebalixiya orbîtê, bermayî û rûbirûbûna hewaya fezayê.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runDi pêvajoyê deQediya
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Îndeks

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-07 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Earth observation and space systems index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Navnîşan Nirx Guhertin Guhertin % 90% interval Class · probability Meyl Navber
Space-weather exposureNXS-GRX · SPC – – – – –

Domains read: Space environment, Technology and frontier, Infrastructure.

04Nîşander

56 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24TEC · 8SPC · 6
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Nîşander Qad Sub-domain Component Yekîne Ast Crosswalks
Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîngIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Standarda sêwirandina parastina ji lehiyêIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Rûerda avakirîIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ Rûbirûbûn context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Rûerda avakirî li herêmên bi metirsiya bilindIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ Rûbirûbûn exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Çirbûna rêyanIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Bermahiyên hişk ên şaredariyê ku di saziyên kontrolkirî de têne birêvebirinIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
Herikînên ava qirêj ên bi ewlehî paqijkirîIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_days SPC Hewaya fezayê hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0101 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-geo
Mezinahiya qada geoelektrîkî di heyama vegerê ya 100 salî deIND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100 SPC Hewaya fezayê hazard V/km COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_days SPC Hewaya fezayê hazard d/a GLOBAL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0104 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-ene
GDP ya di çalakiyên girêdayî GNSS de, paraIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Xizmetên girîng ên bê paşgir bi satelaytan ve girêdayî, paraIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Tora voltaja bilind li herêmên bi metirsiya geoelektrîkî ya bilind, paraIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Dema rêwîtiyê heta saziya tenduristiyê ya herî nêzîkIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Nifûsa bajarî, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Mezinbûna nifûsa bajarîIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Nifûsa bajarî ya li taxên xizan dijîIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Qutbûnên elektrîkê yên ku pargîdanî di mehekê asayî de dijînIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Navgîniya dirêjahiya qutbûnê ya pergalê (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Navgîniya pirbûna qutbûnê ya pergalê (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata mîneralên girîngIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Nifûsa gundî ya di nav 2 km ji rêyeke çar demsalan deIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.1.1
Performansa lojîstîkêIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Girêdana keştiyên xetê li gorî asta herî pêşketîIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Rêwiyên hewayî yên hatine veguhestin ji bo her kesîIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc INF Transport coping capacity {passengers}/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
Nifûsa bajarî ya bi gihîştina hêsan a veguhestina giştîIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Tora rê û rêhesinê li herêmên bi metirsiya bilind, paraIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Kesên ku Înternetê bi kar tîninIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Nifûsa ku tora mobîl pê digire, li gorî teknolojiyêIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.c.1
Abonetiyên broadbanda sabît ji her 100 niştecîhîIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband INF Digital connectivity coping capacity /10*2 COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
Zêdeyiya rêyên girêdana navneteweyîIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Saetên qutbûna înternetê ya li asta neteweyîIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Berxwedana tora elektrîkêIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Berxwedana tora dabînkirina avêIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Saziyên girîng bi hêza paşgir a 72 saetîIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Malûmilkên dabînkirina avê li herêmên bi metirsiya bilind, paraIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Malûmilkên hilberîna elektrîkê û torê li herêmên bi metirsiya bilind, paraIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Saziyên xetên jiyanê li herêmên bi metirsiya bilind, paraIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Valahiya veberhênana binesaziyê, para GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Yekîneyên binesaziya girîng ên ji karesatan zirar dîtî an wêranbûyîIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
Saziyên tenduristiyê yên ji karesatan zirar dîtî an wêranbûyîIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
Saziyên perwerdeyê yên ji karesatan zirar dîtî an wêranbûyîIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Qutbûnên xizmetên bingehîn ên bi karesatan ve girêdayîIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-5
Windabûna aborî ya rasterast a binesaziya girîng, para GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
Bûyerên sîber ên ku xizmetên girîng asteng dikinIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Lêçûnên navxweyî yên gelemperî li ser R&D, para GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Lêkoler ji her milyon niştecîhîIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Hinardekirina teknolojiya bilind, para hinardekirina berhemên çêkirîIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata nîvguheykeranIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina pêşkêşkerên binesaziya ewrIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Kapasîteya hesabkirina AI ya di bin kontrola biyanî an yek pêşkêşkerî deIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Zîrekiya çêkirî vulnerability % COUNTRY
Komkirina pêşkêşkerên modelên bingehînIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Zîrekiya çêkirî vulnerability % COUNTRY
Çavdêriya ewlehiya bîyolojîk û parastina bîyolojîk a laboratuwarên astengiya bilindIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Nifûsa di nav 15 deqeyan ji xizmetên awarte deIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Metirsî

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
EzmanPêşeng126HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 18 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Malbat Qad Metirsî Count
Solar-terrestrial storms Ezman û nêzî Erdê Geomagnetic storm, Solar flare radio blackout, Solar radiation storm, Ionospheric disturbance, Geomagnetically induced current, Satellite space-environment anomaly, Thermospheric drag surge, Radiation-belt electron enhancement … 9
Impacts and orbital hazards Ezman û nêzî Erdê Near-Earth object approach, Meteorite impact, Airburst, Space debris, Orbital collision cascade, Uncontrolled re-entry, Spaceflight accident, Meteoroid stream encounter 8
AI system failure and misalignment Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Teknolojiyên destwerdana avhewayê Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Rêbaz

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

37 methods

Zanista metirsiyan

Hazard Intensity Footprint Screening · Earthquake Hazard · Earthquake Ground Motion · Earthquake Rupture · Liquefaction · Landslide · Tsunami …

27 methods

Critical infrastructure and industrial systems

Asset Reliability · Process Safety · HAZOP · FMEA FMECA · Industrial Fault Tree · Industrial Event Tree · LOPA …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

08Rapor

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-07
Edition status
plankirî
Mijar
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Jêgirtin

Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Earth observation and space systems series (GRX-SER-XT-07), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-07/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000094.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-07:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.SPC.weather.space_weather_exposure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profîlên welatan Hemû rêze

Rewş

Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.

NXS-GRX çi nîne

NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.

Sazî û çavkanî

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.