Global Science and engineering
The scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration.
1
Technology concentration risk
75
3 index domains
16
Frontier and exponential technology
107
Scientific assurance · Risk data
Scope and questions
The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.
- Where is risk science capacity thinnest relative to risk?
- Which models and datasets are single points of failure?
- How reproducible are the methods risk decisions rely on?
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
- Technology concentration riskDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Global Science and engineering indexSeries index · SERIES · GS-15The scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration.
- Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Domain indices in this series
| Index | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC | — | — | — | — | — |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Social and human development, Governance and institutions.
75 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rateIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate | MAC | Labour market | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT |
| LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSHG_PT |
| Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2 |
| Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
| Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
| Social readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
| Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency | WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Transboundary basin area with operational cooperationIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share | WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
| Population with catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendingIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop | HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
| Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
| Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
| Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
| Extreme poverty headcount, USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1 |
| Poverty headcount, USD 4.20 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC |
| Poverty headcount, USD 8.30 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC |
| Poverty headcount at the national poverty lineIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1 |
| Multidimensional poverty headcount (global MPI)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB |
| Gini indexIND.SOC.inequality.gini | SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI |
| Income or consumption share of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share | SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20 |
| Growth of consumption or income of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth | SOC | Inequality | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1 |
| Loss in human development due to inequalityIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss | SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | HDR loss |
| Mean years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling | SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a | COUNTRY | HDR mys |
| Expected years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling | SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a | COUNTRY | HDR eys |
| Learning povertyIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty | SOC | Education | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1 |
| Adult literacy rateIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy | SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1 |
| Gender Inequality Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index | SOC | Gender | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | HDR gii |
| Female labour-force participation rateIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation | SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS |
| Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament | SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
| Population covered by at least one social protection benefitIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage | SOC | Social protection | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot |
| Youth not in employment, education or trainingIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet | SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT |
| Informal employment, share of total employmentIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment | SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS |
| Children aged 5 to 17 in child labourIND.SOC.protection.child_labour | SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS |
| Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdi | SOC | Human development | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | HDR hdi |
| Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdi | SOC | Human development | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | HDR ihdi |
| Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share | DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1 |
| Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
| Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
| Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
| Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
| Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
| Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
| Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
| Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
| CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
| CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
| CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
| Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
| Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
| Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
| Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
| Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
| Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall | GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
| ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
| Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | Biotechnology | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| National DRR strategy aligned with the Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
| Local governments with DRR strategies aligned to the national strategyIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
| Shock-responsive social protection readinessIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection | CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
| Family | Domain | Hazards | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | Frontier and exponential technology | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Frontier and exponential technology | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Frontier and exponential technology | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Frontier and exponential technology | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Frontier and exponential technology | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Frontier and exponential technology | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotechnology and synthetic biology | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Frontier and exponential technology | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Frontier and exponential technology | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Climate intervention technologies | Frontier and exponential technology | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Frontier and exponential technology | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Frontier and exponential technology | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Frontier and exponential technology | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Frontier and exponential technology | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Frontier and exponential technology | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
Scientific assurance
Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …
Risk data
Source Discovery · Source Fitness · Rights Resolver · Freshness Resolver · Provenance Resolver · Data Quality · Missingness Semantics …
Universal mathematics and statistics
Robust Distribution · Empirical Distribution · Bayesian Updating · Hierarchical Bayesian · Extreme Value · Tail Risk · Copula Dependency …
Who uses it
Universities and research
Replicate every value; Study methods; Contribute data and review
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index
International financial institutions and development banks
Screen country and project context; Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps; Design pre-arranged finance questions
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals; Watch weekly signals for review; Read outlooks for anticipatory planning
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
GS-15- Edition status
- planned
- Subject
- Named by Nexus Reports
Cite and reuse
- Series key
grix:SER.GS-15:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.