NXS-GRX · SR-11 · Strategic systems series
Information integrity and social cohesion
Information disorder, polarisation, trust and cohesion as amplifiers of every other risk.
Page GRX-SER-SR-11Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX proposedNexus Reports SR-11 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices
4
Socio-economic vulnerability · Conflict risk · Governance weakness · Cyber risk
Indicators
105
4 index domains
Hazard families
20
Society, conflict and economy · Information and cyber-physical systems
Methods
38
Policy, regulation and governance · Geopolitics, conflict and human security
4
domain indices
105
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
5
client groups
01Scope
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Where does low trust weaken crisis response?
- How does information disorder spread in a crisis?
- Which societies are most polarised under stress?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Information integrity and social cohesion index is builtGraph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
- Socio-economic vulnerabilityDomain index · IDX · SOCWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of poverty and deprivation, inequality, human capital deficit, the social protection gap and gender inequality.
- Conflict riskDomain index · IDX · CONMazziotta-Pareto aggregation, on 0 to 10, of conflict intensity, civilian harm, societal insecurity and external fragility assessments.
- Governance weaknessDomain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
- Cyber riskDomain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Information integrity and social cohesion indexSeries index · SERIES · SR-11Information disorder, polarisation, trust and cohesion as amplifiers of every other risk.
- Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
03Indices
Domain indices in this series
NXS-GRX · SR-11 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Information integrity and social cohesion index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
| Index | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socio-economic vulnerabilityNXS-GRX · SOC | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Conflict riskNXS-GRX · CON | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Governance weaknessNXS-GRX · GOV | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB | — | — | — | — | — |
Domains read: Governance and institutions, Social and human development, Conflict and security, Cyber and digital.
04Indicators
105 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rateIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate | MAC | Labour market | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT |
| LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSHG_PT |
| Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2 |
| Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
| Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
| Social readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
| Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency | WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Transboundary basin area with operational cooperationIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share | WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
| Population with catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendingIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop | HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
| Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
| Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
| Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
| Extreme poverty headcount, USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1 |
| Poverty headcount, USD 4.20 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC |
| Poverty headcount, USD 8.30 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC |
| Poverty headcount at the national poverty lineIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1 |
| Multidimensional poverty headcount (global MPI)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty | SOC | Poverty | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB |
| Gini indexIND.SOC.inequality.gini | SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI |
| Income or consumption share of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share | SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20 |
| Growth of consumption or income of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth | SOC | Inequality | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1 |
| Loss in human development due to inequalityIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss | SOC | Inequality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | HDR loss |
| Mean years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling | SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a | COUNTRY | HDR mys |
| Expected years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling | SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | a | COUNTRY | HDR eys |
| Learning povertyIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty | SOC | Education | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1 |
| Adult literacy rateIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy | SOC | Education | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1 |
| Gender Inequality Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index | SOC | Gender | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | HDR gii |
| Female labour-force participation rateIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation | SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS |
| Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament | SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
| Population covered by at least one social protection benefitIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage | SOC | Social protection | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot |
| Youth not in employment, education or trainingIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet | SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT |
| Informal employment, share of total employmentIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment | SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS |
| Children aged 5 to 17 in child labourIND.SOC.protection.child_labour | SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS |
| Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdi | SOC | Human development | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | HDR hdi |
| Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdi | SOC | Human development | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | HDR ihdi |
| Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share | DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1 |
| Refugees by country of originIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR |
| Refugees by country of origin, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY | SDG 10.7.4 |
| Internally displaced people, conflict and violence (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP |
| Internally displaced people, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY | |
| New internal displacements, conflict and violenceIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV |
| New internal displacements, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY | |
| Reported fatalities from organised political violenceIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
| Conflict fatalities per 100,000 populationIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
| Battle-related deaths (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
| Political violence eventsIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
| Armed conflict eventsIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
| Geographic diffusion of conflictIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
| Fragmentation of armed actorsIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
| Intentional homicide rateIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
| Military expenditure, share of GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
| Armed forces personnel, share of labour forceIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
| Events targeting civiliansIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
| Civilian fatalities from targeted violence, per 100,000 populationIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
| Attacks on health careIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of warIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
| Riots and violent demonstrationsIND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
| Global Peace Index overall score (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
| Global Peace Index ongoing conflict domain score (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
| OECD States of Fragility classificationIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
| World Bank fragile and conflict-affected situation statusIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY | |
| Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
| Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
| Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
| Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
| Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
| Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
| Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
| Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
| CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
| CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
| CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
| Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
| Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
| Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
| Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
| Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
| Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall | GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
| International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours | INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a | COUNTRY | |
| Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
| ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_score | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
| ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier | CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
| ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
| ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
| ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development | CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
| ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
| National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_cert | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
| Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate | CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a | COUNTRY | |
| Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents | CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
| E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| National DRR strategy aligned with the Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
| Local governments with DRR strategies aligned to the national strategyIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
| Shock-responsive social protection readinessIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection | CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
05Hazards
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Family | Domain | Hazards | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organised and collective violence | Society, conflict and economy | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | Society, conflict and economy | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | Society, conflict and economy | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | Society, conflict and economy | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | Society, conflict and economy | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | Society, conflict and economy | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | Society, conflict and economy | Coup d'etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | Society, conflict and economy | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | Society, conflict and economy | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | Society, conflict and economy | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | Society, conflict and economy | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | Society, conflict and economy | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | Society, conflict and economy | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | Society, conflict and economy | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
| Malicious compromise | Information and cyber-physical systems | Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … | 9 |
| Information-integrity attacks | Information and cyber-physical systems | Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure | 6 |
| Cyber-physical disruption | Information and cyber-physical systems | Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … | 11 |
| Signal and platform disruption | Information and cyber-physical systems | Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure | 7 |
| Identity, trust and cryptographic failure | Information and cyber-physical systems | Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure | 6 |
| Systemic cyber events | Information and cyber-physical systems | Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … | 9 |
06Methods
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
17 methods
Policy, regulation and governance
Scenario Counterfactual · Regulatory Change Risk · Policy Uncertainty · Policy Effectiveness · Implementation Gap · Regulatory Exposure · Compliance Obligation Mapping …
21 methods
Geopolitics, conflict and human security
Interstate Conflict Risk · Civil Conflict Risk · Political Violence Risk · Displacement Risk · Humanitarian Access Risk · Geopolitical Sanctions Risk · Geoeconomic Fragmentation …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index
Media
Explain risk with intervals and classes; Embed charts and maps with attribution
Civil society and NGOs
Target programmes; Use open profiles; Contribute local evidence
Universities and research
Replicate every value; Study methods; Contribute data and review
Citizens and communities
Read the risk context of a place; Understand what the numbers mean and do not mean
08Reports
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
SR-11- Edition status
- planned
- Subject
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
09Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Information integrity and social cohesion series (GRX-SER-SR-11), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-11/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000084.
- Series key
grix:SER.SR-11:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.SOC.poverty.socioeconomic_vulnerability:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.CON.violence.conflict_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.