NXS-GRX · SR-08 · Strategic systems series
Financial contagion and systemic finance
Interconnected exposures, sovereign–bank links, capital-flow reversals and contagion through financial networks.
Page GRX-SER-SR-08Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX proposedNexus Reports SR-08 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices
1
Financial stability risk
Indicators
150
4 index domains
Hazard families
18
Systemic and compound events · Society, conflict and economy
Methods
78
Financial risk · Networks, dependency and systemic risk
1
domain indices
150
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
4
client groups
01Scope
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Where would a default propagate through financial links?
- How tight is the sovereign–bank loop?
- Which economies are exposed to sudden stops?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Financial contagion and systemic finance index is builtGraph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
- Financial stability riskDomain index · IDX · FINExpert-weighted Mazziotta-Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0-10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
- Financial contagion and systemic finance indexSeries index · SERIES · SR-08Interconnected exposures, sovereign–bank links, capital-flow reversals and contagion through financial networks.
- Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
03Indices
Domain indices in this series
NXS-GRX · SR-08 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Financial contagion and systemic finance index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
| Index | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial stability riskNXS-GRX · FIN | — | — | — | — | — |
Domains read: Financial system, Fiscal and public debt, Economic structure and trade, Macroeconomy.
04Indicators
150 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product, current US dollarsIND.MAC.output.gdp.usd | MAC | Output and growth | context | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.CD IMF_WEO NGDPD |
| GDP per capita, PPP (ICP 2021)IND.MAC.output.gdp_per_capita.ppp21 | MAC | Output and growth | coping capacity | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD |
| Real GDP growthIND.MAC.output.real_gdp_growth | MAC | Output and growth | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG IMF_WEO NGDP_RPCH |
| Volatility of real GDP growth (10-year)IND.MAC.output.growth_volatility | MAC | Output and growth | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Consumer price inflationIND.MAC.prices.cpi_inflation | MAC | Prices and inflation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG IMF_WEO PCPIPCH |
| Food price inflationIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation | MAC | Prices and inflation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT CP |
| Current account balance, share of GDPIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp | MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS IMF_WEO BCA_NGDPD |
| Reserves in months of importsIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover | MAC | External balance and reserves | coping capacity | mo | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FI.RES.TOTL.MO |
| Short-term external debt, share of reservesIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves | MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.DOD.DSTC.IR.ZS |
| External debt stocks, share of GNIIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni | MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS |
| Exchange-rate volatility (36-month)IND.MAC.monetary.exchange_rate_volatility | MAC | Monetary and exchange-rate conditions | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Unemployment rateIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate | MAC | Labour market | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT |
| Exports of goods and services, current US dollarsIND.MAC.external.exports.usd | MAC | External balance and reserves | context | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD |
| Volatility of the terms of trade (10-year)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| General government overall balance, share of GDPIND.FIS.balance.overall_balance.gdp | FIS | Fiscal balance | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGXCNL_NGDP WB_WDI GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS |
| General government primary balance, share of GDPIND.FIS.balance.primary_balance.gdp | FIS | Fiscal balance | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGXONLB_NGDP |
| General government structural balance, share of potential GDPIND.FIS.balance.structural_balance.potgdp | FIS | Fiscal balance | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGSB_NPGDP |
| Interest-rate-growth differential (r - g)IND.FIS.balance.interest_growth_differential | FIS | Fiscal balance | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| General government revenue, current US dollarsIND.FIS.revenue.total.usd | FIS | Revenue | context | [USD] | COUNTRY | IMF_GFS 1 |
| General government revenue, share of GDPIND.FIS.revenue.total.gdp | FIS | Revenue | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGR_NGDP SDG 17.1.1 WB_WDI GC.REV.XGRT.GD.ZS |
| Tax revenue, share of GDPIND.FIS.revenue.tax.gdp | FIS | Revenue | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS IMF_GFS 11 |
| Tax effort (actual over estimated tax capacity)IND.FIS.revenue.tax_effort | FIS | Revenue | adaptive capacity | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Natural-resource revenue, share of general government revenueIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share | FIS | Revenue | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| General government expenditure, share of GDPIND.FIS.expenditure.total.gdp | FIS | Expenditure | context | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGX_NGDP WB_WDI GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS |
| Rigid expenditure, share of revenueIND.FIS.expenditure.rigid_share.revenue | FIS | Expenditure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Interest payments, share of revenueIND.FIS.expenditure.interest.revenue | FIS | Expenditure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS |
| General government gross debt, share of GDPIND.FIS.debt.gross_debt.gdp | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGXWDG_NGDP WB_WDI GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS |
| General government net debt, share of GDPIND.FIS.debt.net_debt.gdp | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_WEO GGXWDN_NGDP |
| Foreign-currency share of general government debtIND.FIS.debt.fx_share | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Short-term share of general government debt (residual maturity)IND.FIS.debt.short_term_share | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Average time to maturity of general government debtIND.FIS.debt.average_maturity | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | |
| Non-resident holdings of general government debtIND.FIS.debt.nonresident_share | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Concessional share of public external debtIND.FIS.debt.concessional_share | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.DOD.ALLC.ZS |
| Present value of public external debt, share of GDPIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.gdp | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.GN.ZS |
| Present value of public external debt, share of exportsIND.FIS.debt.external_ppg_pv.exports | FIS | Debt stock and composition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.DOD.PVLX.EX.ZS |
| Public gross financing needs, share of GDPIND.FIS.financing.gross_financing_needs.gdp | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Public external debt service, share of revenueIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.revenue | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Public external debt service, share of exportsIND.FIS.financing.external_ppg_debt_service.exports | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.TDS.DPPG.XP.ZS SDG 17.4.1 |
| Sovereign bond spread over benchmarkIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_spread | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Five-year sovereign credit default swap spreadIND.FIS.financing.sovereign_cds_5y | FIS | Gross financing needs | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Debt of non-financial public corporations, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.soe_debt.gdp | FIS | Contingent liabilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Outstanding government guarantees, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.guarantees.gdp | FIS | Contingent liabilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Expected annual fiscal cost of disasters, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.disaster_fiscal_cost.gdp | FIS | Contingent liabilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| LIC-DSF threshold: PV of external debt to GDP (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_gdp | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
| LIC-DSF threshold: PV of external debt to exports (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_ext_exports | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
| LIC-DSF threshold: external debt service to exports (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_exports | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
| LIC-DSF threshold: external debt service to revenue (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.ds_ext_revenue | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
| LIC-DSF benchmark: PV of total public debt to GDP (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_threshold.pv_public_gdp | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | % | COUNTRY | |
| LIC-DSF risk of debt distress, as published (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_risk_published | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | {class} | COUNTRY | |
| SRDSF overall risk of sovereign stress, as published (reference)IND.FIS.capacity.srdsf_risk_published | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | context | {class} | COUNTRY | |
| Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT |
| Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT |
| Common Equity Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assetsIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCET_PT |
| Capital to total assets (leverage)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS |
| Non-performing loans net of provisions to capitalIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital | FIN | Capital adequacy | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT |
| Non-performing loans to total gross loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS |
| Provisions to non-performing loansIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl | FIN | Asset quality | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSPN_PT |
| Loan concentration by economic activityIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT |
| Bank claims on general government, share of bank assetsIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT |
| Return on assetsIND.FIN.earnings.roa | FIN | Earnings | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSERA_PT |
| Return on equityIND.FIN.earnings.roe | FIN | Earnings | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSERE_PT |
| Liquid assets to total assetsIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS |
| Liquid assets to short-term liabilitiesIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLS_PT |
| Liquidity coverage ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT |
| Net stable funding ratioIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT |
| Customer deposits to total non-interbank loansIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCD_PT |
| Net open foreign-exchange position to capital (absolute)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT |
| Foreign-currency loans, share of total loans (credit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFC_PT |
| Foreign-currency deposits, share of total deposits (deposit dollarisation)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT |
| Domestic credit to the private sector, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | context | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14 |
| Credit-to-GDP gap (BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Real growth of credit to the private sectorIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT |
| Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSHG_PT |
| Non-financial corporate debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT |
| Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2 |
| Real residential property price growthIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth | FIN | Real estate | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT |
| House price-to-income ratio, deviation from long-run averageIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap | FIN | Real estate | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, CITY | |
| Assets of other financial corporations, share of GDPIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | context | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT |
| Insurance penetration (premiums to GDP)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10 |
| Natural-catastrophe protection gapIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | vulnerability | % | REGION, COUNTRY | |
| Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure | FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending | FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Trade openness (exports plus imports, share of GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | Trade | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
| International tourism receipts, share of exportsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | Trade | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
| Personal remittances received, share of GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | Trade | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
| Net official development assistance received, share of GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | Trade | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
| Export product concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Export market concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Commodity export dependenceIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
| Manufactures, share of merchandise exportsIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
| Natural-resource rents, share of GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
| Economic complexity indexIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Food imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
| Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Import origin concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Foreign value added share of gross exportsIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Supplier concentration of intermediate-goods importsIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foreign direct investment net inflows, share of GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | Investment | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
| Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
| Carbon intensity of GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
| Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
| Fossil-fuel rents, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
| Fuel exports, share of merchandise exportsIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
| Multi-hazard average annual loss, share of GDPIND.HAZ.multi.aal.gdp | HAZ | Multi-hazard | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Probable maximum loss at 250-year return period, share of GDPIND.HAZ.multi.pml_rp250.gdp | HAZ | Multi-hazard | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO | |
| Earthquake average annual loss, share of GDPIND.HAZ.seismic.eq_aal.gdp | HAZ | Seismic and volcanic | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO | |
| River flood average annual loss, share of GDPIND.HAZ.flood.flood_aal.gdp | HAZ | Flood | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Tropical cyclone average annual loss, share of GDPIND.HAZ.storm.tc_aal.gdp | HAZ | Tropical and severe storms | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO | |
| Produced capital stockIND.HAZ.exposure.capital_stock | HAZ | Exposure | context | [USD] | COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO | |
| GDP generated in high-hazard zones, shareIND.HAZ.exposure.gdp_exposed.share | HAZ | Exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
| Direct economic loss from disasters, share of GDPIND.HAZ.loss.direct_economic_loss.gdp | HAZ | Losses and impacts | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-1 SDG 1.5.2 |
| Recorded disaster damage, share of GDP, 30-year averageIND.HAZ.loss.recorded_disaster_damage.gdp | HAZ | Losses and impacts | impact | % | COUNTRY | EMDAT Total Damage, Adjusted ('000 US$) |
| GDP in sectors highly dependent on nature, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share | ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Baseline water stress score (sub-basin)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress | WAT | Water stress | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO | |
| Water-use efficiencyIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency | WAT | Water stress | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 | COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
| GDP in GNSS-dependent activities, shareIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
| Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
| Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
| Female labour-force participation rateIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation | SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS |
| Informal employment, share of total employmentIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment | SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS |
| Military expenditure, share of GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
| Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
| Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
| Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall | GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Fuel import bill, share of exports of goods and servicesIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Logistics performanceIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance | INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
| Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
| Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp | INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Direct economic loss to critical infrastructure, share of GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp | INF | Service disruption | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-5 |
| ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Disaster risk financing strategy adoptedIND.CRS.financing.drf_strategy | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | |
| Participation in a sovereign regional risk poolIND.CRS.financing.regional_risk_pool_membership | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | |
| Pre-arranged contingent disaster credit, share of GDPIND.CRS.financing.contingent_credit.gdp | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | |
| Sovereign catastrophe risk transfer limit, share of GDPIND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | |
| Natural-catastrophe insurance protection gapIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Non-life insurance premiums, share of GDPIND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | |
| International official support for DRR received, share of GDPIND.CRS.response.international_drr_support.gdp | CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | SENDAI F-1 |
05Hazards
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Family | Domain | Hazards | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply-chain and flow disruption | Systemic and compound events | Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … | 17 |
| Cascading failure | Systemic and compound events | Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … | 10 |
| Compound and multi-hazard events | Systemic and compound events | Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … | 9 |
| Structural fragility of interconnected systems | Systemic and compound events | Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … | 11 |
| Organised and collective violence | Society, conflict and economy | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | Society, conflict and economy | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | Society, conflict and economy | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | Society, conflict and economy | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | Society, conflict and economy | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | Society, conflict and economy | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | Society, conflict and economy | Coup d'etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | Society, conflict and economy | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | Society, conflict and economy | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | Society, conflict and economy | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | Society, conflict and economy | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | Society, conflict and economy | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | Society, conflict and economy | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | Society, conflict and economy | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
06Coupling
How shocks cascade across systems
FIG 5 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | FIN | TRD | INF | DIG | SEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water | ||||||||||
| Energy | ||||||||||
| Food | ||||||||||
| Health | ||||||||||
| Biodiversity | ||||||||||
| Finance | ||||||||||
| Trade | ||||||||||
| Infrastructure | ||||||||||
| Digital | ||||||||||
| Security |
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
FIG 6 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
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07Methods
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
57 methods
Financial risk
Probability of Default · Loss Given Default · Exposure at Default · Expected Credit Loss · Unexpected Credit Loss · Credit Migration · Structural Credit Merton …
21 methods
Networks, dependency and systemic risk
Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …
08Users
Who uses it
Regulators, supervisors and central banks
Design supervisory scenarios; Read systemic coupling; Replicate methods
Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors
Read sovereign and systemic context; Run climate pathway packs; Build portfolio postures
International financial institutions and development banks
Screen country and project context; Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps; Design pre-arranged finance questions
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index
09Reports
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
SR-08- Edition status
- planned
- Subject
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
10Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Financial contagion and systemic finance series (GRX-SER-SR-08), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-08/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000081.
- Series key
grix:SER.SR-08:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.