NXS-GRX · SR-03 · Strategic systems series
Supply chains, trade and chokepoints
Trade concentration, maritime and overland chokepoints, input–output exposure and the propagation of supply shocks.
Page GRX-SER-SR-03Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX proposedNexus Reports SR-03 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices
1
External dependence risk
Indicators
133
5 index domains
Hazard families
31
Built systems · Society, conflict and economy · Systemic and compound events
Methods
51
Markets, trade and supply chains · Networks, dependency and systemic risk
1
domain indices
133
indicators in scope
3
hazard domains
4
client groups
01Scope
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which chokepoints carry the most dependent trade?
- Where would a supply shock propagate furthest?
- How concentrated are critical inputs?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Supply chains, trade and chokepoints index is builtGraph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
- External dependence riskDomain index · IDX · ECOWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0-10.
- Supply chains, trade and chokepoints indexSeries index · SERIES · SR-03Trade concentration, maritime and overland chokepoints, input–output exposure and the propagation of supply shocks.
- Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
03Indices
Domain indices in this series
NXS-GRX · SR-03 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Supply chains, trade and chokepoints index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
| Index | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External dependence riskNXS-GRX · ECO | — | — | — | — | — |
Domains read: Economic structure and trade, Infrastructure, Energy, Food systems, Technology and frontier.
04Indicators
133 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food price inflationIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation | MAC | Prices and inflation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT CP |
| Exports of goods and services, current US dollarsIND.MAC.external.exports.usd | MAC | External balance and reserves | context | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD |
| Volatility of the terms of trade (10-year)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Natural-resource revenue, share of general government revenueIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share | FIS | Revenue | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Trade openness (exports plus imports, share of GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | Trade | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
| International tourism receipts, share of exportsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | Trade | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
| Personal remittances received, share of GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | Trade | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
| Net official development assistance received, share of GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | Trade | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
| Export product concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Export market concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Commodity export dependenceIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
| Manufactures, share of merchandise exportsIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
| Natural-resource rents, share of GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
| Economic complexity indexIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Food imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
| Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Import origin concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Foreign value added share of gross exportsIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Supplier concentration of intermediate-goods importsIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foreign direct investment net inflows, share of GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | Investment | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
| Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
| Carbon intensity of GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
| Fuel exports, share of merchandise exportsIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Flood protection design standardIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard | HAZ | Flood | coping capacity | a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
| Frequency of agricultural drought stressIND.HAZ.drought.agricultural_stress_frequency | HAZ | Drought | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | INFORM ASI |
| Built-up surface areaIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area | HAZ | Exposure | context | km2 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Built-up area in high-hazard zonesIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed | HAZ | Exposure | exposure | km2 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Seasonal peak ozone exposureIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure | ENV | Air quality | hazard | [ppb] | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Degraded land, share of land areaIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share | ENV | Land and forests | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | SDG 15.3.1 |
| Road densityIND.ENV.land.road_density | ENV | Land and forests | hazard | km/km2 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Fish stocks within biologically sustainable levelsIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share | ENV | Ocean | vulnerability | % | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY | SDG 14.4.1 |
| Municipal solid waste managed in controlled facilitiesIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share | ENV | Pollution and waste | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW |
| GDP in sectors highly dependent on nature, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share | ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Crop production value dependent on animal pollination, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share | ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Level of water stressIND.WAT.stress.water_stress | WAT | Water stress | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS |
| Water-use efficiencyIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency | WAT | Water stress | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 | COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
| Wastewater flows safely treatedIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share | WAT | Water quality | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT |
| GDP in GNSS-dependent activities, shareIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
| Critical services relying on satellites without backup, shareIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| High-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones, shareIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Travel time to the nearest health facilityIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time | HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Stunting among children under fiveIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting | HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025 |
| Wasting among children under fiveIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting | HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026 |
| Anaemia among women of reproductive ageIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women | HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043 |
| Prevalence of undernourishmentIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS |
| Number of people undernourishedIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | {persons} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210011 |
| Average dietary energy supply adequacyIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21010 |
| Per capita food supply variabilityIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | kcal/d/{person} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21031 |
| Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
| Moderate or severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS |
| Severe food insecurity (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS |
| Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
| Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
| Population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
| Share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or aboveIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
| IPC Phase 3 or above, share of total populationIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY | |
| Presence of population in IPC Phase 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {bool} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 5 |
| Indicator of food price anomalies (food CPI)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | FOO | Food prices | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | SDG 2.c.1 |
| Months with abnormally high food pricesIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | FOO | Food prices | hazard | % | COUNTRY | |
| Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
| Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
| Cereal yieldIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | kg/har | COUNTRY | WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG |
| Cereal yield variability (15-year)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Agricultural water withdrawal, share of totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
| Cropland, share of land areaIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
| Vegetation Health Index on croplandIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | |
| Urban population, share of totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share | DEM | Urbanisation | context | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS |
| Urban population growthIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth | DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW |
| Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share | DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1 |
| Casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of warIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
| Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall | GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Population with access to electricityIND.ENE.access.electricity_access | ENE | Access | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
| Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologiesIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | ENE | Access | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
| Electricity consumption per capitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc | ENE | Access | context | kW.h/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
| Renewable share of total final energy consumptionIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
| Primary energy intensity of GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] | COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
| Electricity generation-mix concentrationIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Fossil share of electricity generationIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
| Installed renewable generating capacity per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} | COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
| Water-dependent electricity generation, shareIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Net energy import dependenceIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
| Fuel import bill, share of exports of goods and servicesIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Oil stocks in days of net importsIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | coping capacity | d | COUNTRY | |
| Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
| Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm salesIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | ENE | Reliability | impact | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
| System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| Electric power transmission and distribution lossesIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
| Heating and cooling degree daysIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days | ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Rural population within 2 km of an all-season roadIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.1.1 |
| Logistics performanceIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance | INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
| Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
| Air passengers carried per capitaIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc | INF | Transport | coping capacity | {passengers}/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR |
| Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| Road and rail network in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share | INF | Transport | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
| Population covered by a mobile network, by technologyIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.c.1 |
| Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitantsIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | /10*2 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2 |
| International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours | INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a | COUNTRY | |
| Power grid resilienceIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Water supply network resilienceIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Critical facilities with 72-hour back-up powerIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Water supply assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Power generation and grid assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Lifeline facilities in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp | INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours | INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a | CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| Critical infrastructure units damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2 |
| Health facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
| Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
| Disruptions to basic services attributed to disastersIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-5 |
| Direct economic loss to critical infrastructure, share of GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp | INF | Service disruption | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-5 |
| Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents | CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
| Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | Biotechnology | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Population within 15 minutes of emergency servicesIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access | CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
05Hazards
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Family | Domain | Hazards | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Structural and civil failure | Built systems | Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture | 8 |
| Utility and communication network outage | Built systems | Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure | 6 |
| Transport accidents | Built systems | Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash | 5 |
| Industrial and process accidents | Built systems | Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … | 15 |
| Energy system instability and shortfall | Built systems | Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … | 22 |
| Water and wastewater system failure | Built systems | Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … | 9 |
| Telecom and data-centre failure | Built systems | Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss | 8 |
| Space-based service loss | Built systems | Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure | 4 |
| Seabed infrastructure damage | Built systems | Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage | 3 |
| Transport network disruption | Built systems | Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … | 12 |
| Food system infrastructure failure | Built systems | Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production | 5 |
| Urban and building-stock stress | Built systems | Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure | 6 |
| Ageing and degraded infrastructure | Built systems | Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage | 7 |
| Organised and collective violence | Society, conflict and economy | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | Society, conflict and economy | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | Society, conflict and economy | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | Society, conflict and economy | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | Society, conflict and economy | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | Society, conflict and economy | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | Society, conflict and economy | Coup d'etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | Society, conflict and economy | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | Society, conflict and economy | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | Society, conflict and economy | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | Society, conflict and economy | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | Society, conflict and economy | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | Society, conflict and economy | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | Society, conflict and economy | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
| Supply-chain and flow disruption | Systemic and compound events | Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … | 17 |
| Cascading failure | Systemic and compound events | Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … | 10 |
| Compound and multi-hazard events | Systemic and compound events | Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … | 9 |
| Structural fragility of interconnected systems | Systemic and compound events | Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … | 11 |
06Coupling
How shocks cascade across systems
FIG 5 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | FIN | TRD | INF | DIG | SEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water | ||||||||||
| Energy | ||||||||||
| Food | ||||||||||
| Health | ||||||||||
| Biodiversity | ||||||||||
| Finance | ||||||||||
| Trade | ||||||||||
| Infrastructure | ||||||||||
| Digital | ||||||||||
| Security |
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
FIG 6 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
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07Methods
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
30 methods
Markets, trade and supply chains
Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …
21 methods
Networks, dependency and systemic risk
Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …
08Users
Who uses it
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers; Watch chokepoints and pulse; Read country context
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index
Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors
Read sovereign and systemic context; Run climate pathway packs; Build portfolio postures
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context; Run scenario and tail analytics; Study parametric index design questions
09Reports
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
SR-03- Edition status
- planned
- Subject
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
10Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Supply chains, trade and chokepoints series (GRX-SER-SR-03), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-03/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000076.
- Series key
grix:SER.SR-03:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.