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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · Exponential technology series

소프트웨어 및 공급망 무결성

핵심 시스템 전반의 오픈소스 및 상용 소프트웨어 의존성, 빌드 무결성, 출처 이력.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-14Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-14 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
영역 지수

2

Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk

지표

26

2 index domains

Hazard families

22

Information and cyber-physical systems · Frontier and exponential technology.

방법론

101

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Scientific assurance.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
2
영역 지수
26
indicators in scope
2
재해 영역
3
client groups

01범위

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which critical systems depend on unmaintained components?
  2. How verifiable are software builds?
  3. Where would a compromised dependency propagate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Software and supply-chain integrity index is built

Graph6 nodes
그래프
01영역 지수
02Series index
03Readings

100%
색인
  1. 사이버 리스크

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. 기술 집중 리스크

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Software and supply-chain integrity index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-14
    핵심 시스템 전반의 오픈소스 및 상용 소프트웨어 의존성, 빌드 무결성, 출처 이력.
  4. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
실행 전진행 중완료
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03지수

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Software and supply-chain integrity index, world
–
값은 판과 함께 게시되며, 구간, 등급, 변화가 여기에 표시됩니다.
지수 값 변화 변화 % 90% 구간 등급 · 확률 추세 범위
사이버 리스크NXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
기술 집중 리스크NXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier.

04지표

26 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
지표 영역 Sub-domain 구성 요소 단위 단계 Crosswalks
핵심 광물 순수입 의존도IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
핵심 광물 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
인터넷 이용자IND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
국제 연결 경로 이중화IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
전국 규모 인터넷 장애 시간IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
ITU 글로벌 사이버보안 지수 점수IND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
ITU 글로벌 사이버보안 지수 등급IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI 법적 조치 기둥IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI 기술적 조치 기둥IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI 조직적 조치 기둥IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI 역량 개발 조치 기둥IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI 협력 조치 기둥IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
국가 컴퓨터 침해사고 대응팀 운영 여부IND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
개인정보 보호 법률 시행 여부IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
인구 100만 명당 중대 사이버 사고IND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
핵심 서비스를 방해한 사이버 사고IND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT 서비스 부가가치, GDP 대비 비율IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
전자정부 발전도IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
국내 총 R&D 지출, GDP 대비 비율IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
주민 100만 명당 연구원 수IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
첨단기술 수출, 제조업 수출 대비 비율IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
반도체 수입 공급처 집중도IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
클라우드 인프라 제공자 집중도IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
외국 또는 단일 제공자가 통제하는 AI 컴퓨팅 역량IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC 인공지능 vulnerability % COUNTRY
파운데이션 모델 제공자 집중도IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC 인공지능 vulnerability % COUNTRY
고위험 밀폐 실험실의 생물안전 및 생물보안 감독IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC 생명공학 coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05재해

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
정보프런티어157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
계열 영역 재해 Count
Malicious compromise 정보 및 사이버 물리 시스템 Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks 정보 및 사이버 물리 시스템 Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption 정보 및 사이버 물리 시스템 Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption 정보 및 사이버 물리 시스템 Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure 정보 및 사이버 물리 시스템 Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events 정보 및 사이버 물리 시스템 Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
AI system failure and misalignment 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
생명공학과 합성생물학 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
기후 개입 기술 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets 첨단 및 기하급수적 기술 Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06방법론

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

사이버, AI, 프런티어 기술

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

45 methods

과학적 보증

Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

08보고서

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-14
Edition status
계획
주제
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09인용

인용과 재사용

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Software and supply-chain integrity series (GRX-SER-XT-14), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-14/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000101.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-14:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

국가 개요 모든 시리즈

상태

Global Risks Index의 방법론, 구조, 정의는 검토와 의견 수렴을 위해 배포된 예비 작업 초안(2026)이며 이행용이 아닙니다. 관리되는 근거 마감에 따라 판이 공개되기 전까지는 어떠한 값도 표시되지 않으며, 공개 후 값에는 구간, 등급, 출처, 정정 경로가 함께 표시됩니다. 시뮬레이터는 귀하가 선택한 숫자에 공개된 방법을 적용할 뿐이며 NXS-GRX 값을 표시하지 않습니다.

NXS-GRX가 아닌 것

NXS-GRX는 연구 및 리스크 분석 정보입니다. 신용등급이나 ESG 등급이 아니며 등급 척도를 사용하지 않고, 금융상품의 벤치마크도, 공식 통계도, 긴급 경보나 공식 분류도, 자문도 아닙니다. 자연인 평가에 사용해서는 안 됩니다. 리스크 등급은 공개된 척도 위의 구간이며, 국가나 사람의 순위가 결코 아닙니다.

기관과 출처

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

모든 값에는 출처 표시가 함께 제공되며, 각 출처는 고유한 라이선스를 유지합니다. 외부 명칭은 상호운용성을 위해서만 인용됩니다. Nexus가 작성한 텍스트는 공개 시 CC BY 4.0 적용을 예정합니다.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.