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Der Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · Exponential technology series

Integrität von Software und Lieferketten

Abhängigkeiten von Open-Source- und kommerzieller Software, Build-Integrität und Herkunft in kritischen Systemen.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-14Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-14 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domänenindizes

2

Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk

Indikatoren

26

2 index domains

Hazard families

22

Information and cyber-physical systems · Frontier and exponential technology.

Methoden

101

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Scientific assurance.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
2
Bereichsindizes
26
indicators in scope
2
Gefahrenbereiche
3
client groups

01Geltungsbereich

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which critical systems depend on unmaintained components?
  2. How verifiable are software builds?
  3. Where would a compromised dependency propagate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Software and supply-chain integrity index is built

Graph6 nodes
Graph
01Domänenindizes
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Verzeichnis
  1. Cyberrisiko

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Risiko technologischer Konzentration

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Software and supply-chain integrity index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-14
    Abhängigkeiten von Open-Source- und kommerzieller Software, Build-Integrität und Herkunft in kritischen Systemen.
  4. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Nicht ausgeführtIn BearbeitungErledigt
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indizes

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Software and supply-chain integrity index, world
–
Werte erscheinen mit der Ausgabe; Intervall, Klasse und Veränderung werden hier angezeigt.
Index Wert Veränderung Veränderung % 90%-Intervall Klasse · Wahrscheinlichkeit Trend Spanne
CyberrisikoNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Risiko technologischer KonzentrationNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier.

04Indikatoren

26 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indikator Domäne Sub-domain Komponente Einheit Ebenen Crosswalks
Nettoimportabhängigkeit bei kritischen MineralienIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Lieferantenkonzentration bei Importen kritischer MineralienIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Personen, die das Internet nutzenIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundanz internationaler VerbindungswegeIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Stunden landesweiter InternetstörungenIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Wert im ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Stufe im ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
ITU GCI, Säule rechtliche MaßnahmenIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI, Säule technische MaßnahmenIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
ITU GCI, Säule organisatorische MaßnahmenIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
ITU GCI, Säule Maßnahmen zum KapazitätsaufbauIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
ITU GCI, Säule KooperationsmaßnahmenIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Nationales Computer-Notfallteam in BetriebIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Datenschutzgesetzgebung in KraftIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Erhebliche Cybervorfälle je Million EinwohnerIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Cybervorfälle mit Störung kritischer DiensteIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Wertschöpfung von IKT-Dienstleistungen, Anteil am BIPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Entwicklung des E-GovernmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Bruttoinlandsausgaben für F&E, Anteil am BIPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Forschende je Million EinwohnerIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Hochtechnologieexporte, Anteil an den Exporten von IndustrieerzeugnissenIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Lieferantenkonzentration bei HalbleiterimportenIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Anbieterkonzentration bei Cloud-InfrastrukturIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
KI-Rechenkapazität unter ausländischer Kontrolle oder Kontrolle eines einzelnen AnbietersIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Künstliche Intelligenz vulnerability % COUNTRY
Anbieterkonzentration bei BasismodellenIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Künstliche Intelligenz vulnerability % COUNTRY
Aufsicht über biologische Sicherheit und Biosicherheit von HochsicherheitslaborenIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnologie coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Gefahren

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformationFrontier157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Familie Domäne Gefahren Count
Malicious compromise Informations- und cyberphysische Systeme Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Informations- und cyberphysische Systeme Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Informations- und cyberphysische Systeme Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Informations- und cyberphysische Systeme Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Informations- und cyberphysische Systeme Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Informations- und cyberphysische Systeme Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
AI system failure and misalignment Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnologie und synthetische Biologie Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Technologien zur Klimaintervention Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologien Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Methoden

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Cyber, KI und Frontier-Technologien

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

45 methods

Wissenschaftliche Qualitätssicherung

Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

08Berichte

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-14
Edition status
geplant
Gegenstand
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Zitieren

Zitieren und weiterverwenden

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Software and supply-chain integrity series (GRX-SER-XT-14), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-14/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000101.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-14:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Länderprofile Alle Reihen

Status

Methodik, Struktur und Definitionen des Global Risks Index sind ein vorbereitender Arbeitsentwurf (2026), der zur Prüfung und Stellungnahme und nicht zur Umsetzung verbreitet wird. Kein Wert erscheint, bevor eine Ausgabe aus einem geregelten Evidenzschnitt veröffentlicht ist; die Werte tragen dann Intervalle, Klassen, Quellen und ihren Korrekturweg. Die Simulatoren wenden die veröffentlichten Methoden auf Zahlen an, die Sie wählen, und zeigen niemals einen NXS-GRX-Wert.

Was NXS-GRX nicht ist

NXS-GRX ist eine Forschungs- und Risikoanalyseinformation. Es ist kein Kredit- oder ESG-Rating und verwendet keine Ratingskala, kein Referenzwert für Finanzinstrumente, keine amtliche Statistik, keine Notfallwarnung oder amtliche Einstufung und keine Beratung. Es darf nicht zur Bewertung natürlicher Personen verwendet werden. Risikoklassen sind Bänder auf einer veröffentlichten Skala, niemals Rangfolgen von Ländern oder Personen.

Institutionen und Quellen

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Jeder Wert trägt die Namensnennung seiner Quellen, die ihre eigenen Lizenzen behalten. Externe Namen werden nur zur Interoperabilität zitiert. Von Nexus verfasste Texte sollen bei Veröffentlichung unter CC BY 4.0 stehen.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.