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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · Exponential technology series

یەکپارچەیی نەرمەکاڵا و زنجیرەی دابینکردن

پشتبەستنەکانی نەرمەکاڵای سەرچاوەکراوە و بازرگانی، یەکپارچەیی دروستکردن و ڕەسەنایەتی لە سەرانسەری سیستەمە هەستیارەکاندا.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-14Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-14 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
نیشاندەری بوارەکان

2

Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk

نیشاندەرەکان

26

2 index domains

Hazard families

22

Information and cyber-physical systems · Frontier and exponential technology.

ڕێگاکان

101

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Scientific assurance.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
2
domain indices
26
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
3
client groups

01سنوور

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which critical systems depend on unmaintained components?
  2. How verifiable are software builds?
  3. Where would a compromised dependency propagate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Software and supply-chain integrity index is built

Graph6 nodes
گراف
01نیشاندەری بوارەکان
02Series index
03Readings

100%
لیست
  1. Cyber risk

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Technology concentration risk

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Software and supply-chain integrity index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-14
    پشتبەستنەکانی نەرمەکاڵای سەرچاوەکراوە و بازرگانی، یەکپارچەیی دروستکردن و ڕەسەنایەتی لە سەرانسەری سیستەمە هەستیارەکاندا.
  4. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runلە ئەنجامداندایەتەواو بوو
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03نیشاندەرە لێکدراوەکان

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Software and supply-chain integrity index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
نیشاندەر بەها گۆڕانکاری گۆڕانکاری % 90% interval Class · probability ڕەوت مەودا
Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier.

04نیشاندەرەکان

26 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
نیشاندەر بوار Sub-domain Component یەکە ئاستەکان Crosswalks
پشتبەستنی سافی بە هاوردە بۆ کانزا گرنگەکانIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
چڕبوونەوەی دابینکەرانی هاوردەی کانزا گرنگەکانIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
تاکەکانی بەکارهێنەری ئینتەرنێتIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
یەدەگیی ڕێڕەوەکانی پەیوەندیی نێودەوڵەتیIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
کاتژمێرەکانی پچڕانی ئینتەرنێت لە ئاستی نیشتمانیداIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
نمرەی Global Cybersecurity Index ی ITUIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
پلەی Global Cybersecurity Index ی ITUIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
کۆڵەکەی ڕێوشوێنە یاساییەکانی ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
کۆڵەکەی ڕێوشوێنە تەکنیکییەکانی ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
کۆڵەکەی ڕێوشوێنە ڕێکخراوەییەکانی ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
کۆڵەکەی ڕێوشوێنەکانی پەرەپێدانی توانای ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
کۆڵەکەی ڕێوشوێنەکانی هاوکاریی ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
تیمی نیشتمانیی وەڵامدانەوەی ڕووداوی کۆمپیوتەر کە کارایەIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
یاسای پاراستنی داتا و تایبەتمەندی کە کاری پێدەکرێتIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ڕووداوە سایبەرییە گرنگەکان بۆ هەر ملیۆن کەسIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
ڕووداوە سایبەرییەکان کە خزمەتگوزارییە گرنگەکان دەپچڕێننIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
بەهای زیادکراوی خزمەتگوزارییەکانی ICT، ڕێژە لە GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
پەرەپێدانی حکومەتی ئەلیکترۆنیIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
کۆی خەرجیی ناوخۆیی لەسەر R&D، ڕێژە لە GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
توێژەران بۆ هەر ملیۆن دانیشتووIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
هەناردەی تەکنەلۆجیای بەرز، ڕێژە لە هەناردەی پیشەسازیIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
چڕبوونەوەی دابینکەرانی هاوردەی نیمچەگەیەنەرIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
چڕبوونەوەی دابینکەرانی ژێرخانی هەورIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
توانای ژمێریاریی زیرەکی دەستکرد لە ژێر کۆنترۆڵی بیانی یان تاکە دابینکەرداIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC زیرەکی دەستکرد vulnerability % COUNTRY
چڕبوونەوەی دابینکەرانی مۆدێلی بنچینەییIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC زیرەکی دەستکرد vulnerability % COUNTRY
چاودێریی سەلامەتیی زیندەیی و ئاسایشی زیندەیی بۆ تاقیگە توند-داخراوەکانIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05مەترسیدەرەکان

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Informationسنوور157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
خێزان بوار مەترسیدەرەکان Count
Malicious compromise سیستەمە زانیاری و سایبەری-فیزیکییەکان Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks سیستەمە زانیاری و سایبەری-فیزیکییەکان Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption سیستەمە زانیاری و سایبەری-فیزیکییەکان Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption سیستەمە زانیاری و سایبەری-فیزیکییەکان Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure سیستەمە زانیاری و سایبەری-فیزیکییەکان Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events سیستەمە زانیاری و سایبەری-فیزیکییەکان Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
AI system failure and misalignment تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
تەکنەلۆجیاکانی دەستێوەردان لە کەشوهەوادا تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ و ئاستی بەخێرایی Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06ڕێگاکان

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

سایبەر، زیرەکی دەستکرد و تەکنەلۆجیای پێشەنگ

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

45 methods

دڵنیاکردنەوەی زانستی

Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

08ڕاپۆرتەکان

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-14
Edition status
پلان بۆ دانراو
بابەت
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09ئاماژەپێدان

ئاماژەپێدان و بەکارهێنانەوە

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Software and supply-chain integrity series (GRX-SER-XT-14), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-14/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000101.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-14:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

پڕۆفایلی وڵاتان هەموو زنجیرەکان

دۆخ

میتۆدۆلۆژی، پێکهاتە و پێناسەکانی Global Risks Index ڕەشنووسێکی کاریی ئامادەکارییە (2026)، کە بۆ پێداچوونەوە و ڕاوبۆچوون بڵاو کراوەتەوە نەک بۆ جێبەجێکردن. هیچ بەهایەک دەرناکەوێت تا وەشانێک لە بڕگەیەکی بەڵگەی حوکمڕانیکراوەوە بڵاو نەکرێتەوە؛ ئینجا بەهاکان مەودا، پۆل، سەرچاوە و ڕێگەی ڕاستکردنەوەیان لەگەڵدایە. سیمولەیتەرەکان ڕێبازە بڵاوکراوەکان لەسەر ئەو ژمارانە جێبەجێ دەکەن کە تۆ هەڵیاندەبژێریت و هەرگیز بەهای NXS-GRX پیشان نادەن.

NXS-GRX چی نییە

NXS-GRX زانیاریی توێژینەوە و شیکاریی مەترسییە. نە پلەبەندیی قەرز یان ESG ە و هیچ پێوەرێکی پلەبەندی بەکار ناهێنێت، نە پێوەرێکی بنەڕەتییە بۆ ئامرازە داراییەکان، نە ئاماری فەرمییە، نە ئاگادارکردنەوەی فریاکەوتن یان پۆلێنکردنی فەرمییە، و نە ئامۆژگارییە. نابێت بۆ هەڵسەنگاندنی کەسە سروشتییەکان بەکار بهێنرێت. پۆلەکانی مەترسی بەشگەلێکن لەسەر پێوەرێکی بڵاوکراو، هەرگیز ڕیزبەندیی وڵاتان یان خەڵک نین.

دامەزراوەکان و سەرچاوەکان

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

هەر بەهایەک ناوبردنی خاوەنی سەرچاوەکانی لەگەڵدایە، کە مۆڵەتی خۆیان دەپارێزن. ناوە دەرەکییەکان تەنیا بۆ گونجانی نێوان سیستەمەکان ئاماژەیان پێدەکرێت. ئەو دەقانەی Nexus نووسیونی بڕیارە لە کاتی بڵاوکردنەوەدا بە CC BY 4.0 بن.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.