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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · Exponential technology series

Integritas perangkat lunak dan rantai pasok

Ketergantungan perangkat lunak sumber terbuka dan komersial, integritas build, dan provenans di seluruh sistem kritis.

Konstruksi Indikator
Page GRX-SER-XT-14Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-14 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indeks domain

2

Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk

Indikator

26

2 index domains

Hazard families

22

Information and cyber-physical systems · Frontier and exponential technology.

Metode

101

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Scientific assurance.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
2
indeks ranah
26
indicators in scope
2
ranah bahaya
3
client groups

01Lingkup

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which critical systems depend on unmaintained components?
  2. How verifiable are software builds?
  3. Where would a compromised dependency propagate?
02Konstruksi

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Software and supply-chain integrity index is built

Graph6 nodes
Grafik
01Indeks domain
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Indeks
  1. Risiko siber

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Risiko konsentrasi teknologi

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Software and supply-chain integrity index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-14
    Ketergantungan perangkat lunak sumber terbuka dan komersial, integritas build, dan provenans di seluruh sistem kritis.
  4. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Belum dijalankanSedang berjalanSelesai
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indeks

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-14 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Software and supply-chain integrity index, world
–
Nilai terbit bersama edisi; interval, kelas, dan perubahan muncul di sini.
Indeks Nilai Perubahan Perubahan % Interval 90% Kelas · probabilitas Tren Rentang
Risiko siberNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Risiko konsentrasi teknologiNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier.

04Indikator

26 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indikator Domain Sub-domain Komponen Unit Tingkat Crosswalks
Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritisIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pemasok impor mineral kritisIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Mineral kritis vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Individu yang menggunakan internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity kapasitas penanggulangan % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundansi rute konektivitas internasionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity kapasitas penanggulangan 1 COUNTRY
Jam gangguan internet berskala nasionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Skor ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Tingkatan ITU Global Cybersecurity IndexIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar langkah hukum ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar langkah teknis ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar langkah organisasi ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar langkah pengembangan kapasitas ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability kapasitas adaptif {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar langkah kerja sama ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Tim tanggap insiden komputer nasional yang beroperasiIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Undang-undang pelindungan data dan privasi yang berlakuIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability kapasitas penanggulangan {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Insiden siber signifikan per juta pendudukIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Insiden siber yang mengganggu layanan kritisIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Nilai tambah layanan TIK, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence keterpaparan % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Perkembangan e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence keterpaparan {score} COUNTRY
Belanja domestik bruto untuk litbang, porsi terhadap PDBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Peneliti per juta pendudukIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Ekspor teknologi tinggi, porsi terhadap ekspor manufakturIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability kapasitas adaptif % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Konsentrasi pemasok impor semikonduktorIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Konsentrasi penyedia infrastruktur cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Kapasitas komputasi AI di bawah kendali asing atau penyedia tunggalIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Kecerdasan buatan vulnerability % COUNTRY
Konsentrasi penyedia model fondasiIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Kecerdasan buatan vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pengawasan biosafety dan biosekuriti laboratorium penahanan tinggiIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Bioteknologi kapasitas penanggulangan {score} COUNTRY
05Bahaya

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformasiGaris depan157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Keluarga Domain Bahaya Jumlah
Malicious compromise Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Sistem informasi dan siber-fisik Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
AI system failure and misalignment Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Bioteknologi dan biologi sintetis Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Teknologi intervensi iklim Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Buku besar terdistribusi dan aset digital Teknologi terdepan dan eksponensial Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Metode

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Siber, AI, dan teknologi mutakhir

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

45 methods

Penjaminan ilmiah

Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

08Laporan

Edisi Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-14
Edition status
direncanakan
Subjek
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Edisi Nexus Reports

09Kutip

Kutip dan gunakan kembali

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Software and supply-chain integrity series (GRX-SER-XT-14), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-14/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000101.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-14:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profil negara Semua seri

Status

Metodologi, struktur, dan definisi The Global Risks Index merupakan draf kerja persiapan (2026), yang diedarkan untuk ditinjau dan dikomentari, bukan untuk diterapkan. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan sampai sebuah edisi dirilis dari pemotongan bukti yang diatur; nilai-nilai tersebut kemudian memuat interval, kelas, sumber, dan jalur koreksinya. Simulator menjalankan metode yang diterbitkan pada angka yang Anda pilih dan tidak pernah menampilkan nilai NXS-GRX.

Apa yang bukan NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX adalah informasi riset dan analitik risiko. NXS-GRX bukan peringkat kredit atau ESG dan tidak memakai skala peringkat, bukan acuan untuk instrumen keuangan, bukan statistik resmi, bukan peringatan darurat atau klasifikasi resmi, dan bukan nasihat. NXS-GRX tidak boleh digunakan untuk menilai orang perseorangan. Kelas risiko adalah pita pada skala yang diterbitkan, tidak pernah peringkat negara atau orang.

Lembaga dan sumber

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Setiap nilai memuat atribusi sumbernya, yang tetap memiliki lisensinya masing-masing. Nama-nama eksternal dikutip semata-mata untuk interoperabilitas. Teks yang disusun Nexus direncanakan berlisensi CC BY 4.0 saat dirilis.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.